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Brown and Darling face a dilemma.

December 9th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Recession, The Markets, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Monday that his government has identified billions of pounds in additional efficiency savings in the public sector to help pare the country’s record deficit. Mr. Brown said the government can deliver £12 billion ($19.7 billion) in efficiency savings over the next four years, an increase on the target £9 billion that the Treasury had identified in April. Brown’s announcement comes ahead of Wednesday’s Pre-Budget Report, which will map out some measures to cut the budget deficit. Among the measures that have been considered is a tax on bankers’ bonuses and even on the banks themselves. However the issue of a windfall tax on banks or bonuses presents Brown and Chancellor Darling with a serious dilemma as they leave no stone unturned to raise cash without damaging the economy’s return to growth. Eroding banks’ profits to raise fiscal income might weaken these institutions just as the government is trying to provide increased more capital behind them to cover lending to Britain’s credit-starved companies.

Manufacturing output in the UK between September and October was unchanged against expectations for a 0.4 per cent increase. UK house prices rose 1.4 per cent month on month in November – stronger than forecast. The two pieces of news appeared to cancel each other out and sterling and gilts seemed little affected.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is expected on Wednesday to announce a cut in taxes on the use of electric vehicles as company cars as part of efforts to present an environmentally friendly pre-budget report. A U.K. treasury spokesman predicted that from 2012, companies and employees would be exempted from paying taxes on company cars if they were electric vehicles.

Shares in UK government majority owned Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc, dropped after Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling refused to rule out a tax on excessive bonus payments. Royal Bank of Scotland retreated 4.7 percent to 33 pence and Lloyds Banking tumbled 4.1 percent to 53.69 pence.

Andrew Bailey, executive director for banking services at the BOE, has stated the bank’s fears that U.K. consumers are hoarding cash due to their lack of confidence in the banking system. Another factor that strengthens the banks theories are the negligible interest that they would earn even if they did invest their money with a financial institution. In a speech made in Washington D.C., Bailey highlighted the ironic connection between the declining need for cash in everyday life and the sharply increasing demand for banknotes during the financial crisis and ensuing recession.

According to a recent report issued by the Engineering Employers Federation, U.K. factory production will begin growing again next year as exports rebound, Production is expected to grow 0.9 percent in 2010 after it had shrunk by 10.4 percent in 2009. The report went on to add that increasing signals point to the fact that the U.K. is emerging from the longest recession on record. The British Chambers of Commerce pointed out that although the recovery has started the Bank of England will probably be required to maintain its bond purchase plan at £200 billion pounds ($331 billion) while it assesses the strength of signs of a rebound.

Shares in travel companies are on the rise, with the Thomas Cook Group and TUI Travel leading the way. Thomas Cook, Europe’s second-biggest tour operator, jumped 1.9 percent to 221.2 pence, while TUI Travel, Europe’s largest tour operator, rose 1.5 percent to 250.5 pence.

Shares in the U.K. waste recycling company Shanks Group Plc surged forward 43 percent to 128.5 pence after the company revealed that they had received a possible bid offer from an unidentified private equity group. Washington-based private equity firm Carlyle Group, have been reported to be in talks to buy the British waste-disposal company Shanks for about £535 million ($875 million) for some time.

Sterling lost ground on Tuesday as disappointing economic data and concerns over the UK government’s pre-Budget report weighed on the currency,

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6292
  • Pound/Euro 1.1040

London equities continued to weaken on Tuesday, with renewed concern about the financial problems in Dubai. Banks especially were hard while talks continued between Dubai World and the creditors to restructure debt at the holding company. It is expected that a group of banks, including the Royal Bank of Scotland, Standard Chartered, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group as well as two from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will form a steering committee to be appointed to represent creditors. At the end of the day’s trading, the FTSE 100 had tumbled 1.5 per cent to close on 5,230.5,

According to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke the US economy is improving, although it is still too early to say that the recovery will last.

Unemployment could stay "elevated", although inflation is likely to remain subdued, while interest rates were likely to stay low for "an extended period",

Following Bernanke’s comments, the dollar lost a lot of the recent gains it had made against the euro.

On close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped 104.82 points to 10,285.292 and the NASDAQ was also down 19,65 points to to 2,169.96

President Obama has said that money not spent under the £425 billion ($700 billion) US bank bail-out package could be used to cut the US deficit and boost jobs. The cost of the "Troubled Asset Relief Program" (Tarp) had turned out to be "much cheaper than expected". Reports say the cost of the Tarp will be £120 billion below the Treasury estimate. Back in August, the Obama administration had estimated that the rescue package would be £200 billion.

Crude oil dropped for a fourth day, trading below $75 a barrel, as the dollar gained amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced that Chinese car sales and production both exceeded 12 million between January and November, with expectations that car sales and output will to top 13 million for the full year.

Production of new cars has never topped the 10 million cars in one year mark in the past with state incentives having boosted car sales. The Chinese government has reiterated their plans to continue economic stimulus measures into 2010, Despite the downturn and falling sales at most global car makers, demand for cars in China continues to boom.

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UK – The sick man of Europe

November 23rd, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Exchage Rate, Gold, Recession, Retail, The Markets, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

The UK looks like being in the financial doldrums for years to come, largely due to placing too much faith n the financial service sector and not enough on building up the heavy to medium sized industries that once made Britain Great. Financial experts are now convinced that that the reasons why the UK is taking longer than their European rivals to move out of the recession is too much of an emphasis been placed on saving the banks and too little on pushing industry forward as the French and German governments succeeded in doing. The mood on the street is that Britain has got to get a grip on its public finances.

This mood is emphasized by recent statements made by head of the Confederation of British Industry General Richard Lambert who reminded all of us that didn’t know it that how to reduce the 175 billion pound deficit will become a major battleground ahead of the next election, due next year, which the Conservatives are expected to win. General Lambert did point out that in his opinion there is very little to choose between both main parties’ deficit-reduction plans.

Meanwhile public borrowing in 2009 is almost treble what it was the previous t year with some analysts even forecasting that could even surpass the government’s forecast of £175 billion pounds, equivalent to no less than 12 percent of GDP. Chancellor Alistair Darling, who for some reason thinks he will be around to make it happen, has pledged to halve the deficit within the next four years and to even balance the budget by 2018, although he has yet to explain how.

What does appear likely to happen in the near future is that the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA) begins responsibility for financial stability as well as market regulation, consumer protection and investigating financial crime in the UK. Under a new bill that entered Parliament yesterday, to be known as the. Financial Services bill, a formal three-member Council for Financial Stability will be created. The council will consist of the finance minister, the governor of the Bank of England and the head of the FSA, who will be jointly responsible for overseeing UK financial stability. The Treasury will also start be held responsible for publishing annual reports on the stability of the UK financial system. The FSA will also gain long awaited veto power over bankers’ pay arrangements. This new authority will allow them to act if they believe that a bank employee’s contract would damage the bank’s risk management.

A recent survey has predicted that it may take until 2014 for UK property prices to return to the levels they peaked at in 2007 peak, the height of the country’s biggest housing boom.

After a surprise rebound this year, the survey predicts that U.K. house prices will probably fall next year, with predictions of an average drop of about 1.6 percent being bandied about.

The 7 percent gain in average prices in the UK that have been going on since April were driven by a shortage of properties for sale and are unlikely to be sustained, while Britain’s longest recession on record fuels unemployment and makes banks hesitant to lend.

National Grid, the company that operates electricity and gas networks in the UK as well as in the US, has reported a 16 per cent rise in underlying pre-tax profit for the six months to the end of September. The rise comes despite a steep fall in energy use, demonstrating what the company describes the success of their extremely low risk business model. Pre-tax profits, were £649 million in the first half of 2009, up from £91 million from the equivalent period of 2008. The company benefited from the favourable effect of 2008’s high UK retail price inflation, which governs the charges that National Grid is allowed to earn from energy suppliers for using its networks. The company was also helped by the steep fall in interest rates, as about a third of its debt is at floating rates.

The world’s largest maker of household cleaners Reckitt Benckiser is close to a “multibillion pound cross-border transaction,” most likely candidate being industry giant Colgate. The news added 1.1 percent to Reckitt’s shares which closed at 3,140 pence.

Brewers SABMiller Plc who produces the Pilsner Urquell and Miller Genuine Draft beers among others saw their shares rise 3.4 percent to 1,714 pence on trading before the weekend. The rise was a result of their announcement of first-half profits that beat analysts’ estimates, as well their plans to launch a four year cost reduction program to save around £200 million annually by 2014.

U.K. pub owner Fuller Smith & Turner Plc, producers of London Pride ale, has announced first-half profits up 47 percent, as the company benefited from acquisitions and by selling more of its own beer brands. A spokesman for the company said that they expect the second half to be “significantly tougher,” as factors including good weather and the benefits of the purchases are unlikely to be repeated The company has added 11 pubs over the past year, seven in central London acquired from Punch Taverns Plc.

There was a lot of movement on the FTSE 100 before the index closed for the weekend. In the travel sector both Thomas Cook and Tui Travel sank at least 4 percent. Wolseley Plc and Taylor Wimpey Plc led a retreat among home builders after reports that unemployment will continue to force down property prices. Cable & Wireless Plc added 1.8 percent after positive market reports on the company’s performance.

The pound fell against the dollar, the euro and the yen on concern that the U.K.’s worst budget deficit since records began will hamper the nation’s recovery. The pound slid to its lowest level in more than two weeks against the U.S. currency. Britain’s £11.4 billion-pound budget deficit in October was the worst for the month since records began in 1993, according to data released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6504
  • Pound/Euro 1.1099
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 146.7564
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6803

U.K. stocks declined for a fourth day with the benchmark FTSE 100 Index slipped 0.3 percent to 5,251.41, bringing this week’s loss to 0.9 percent. The gauge has rebounded 50 percent from this year’s low on March 3 amid signs government stimulus policies and record-low interest rates are leading the UK economy out of recession, albeit at a slow pace. The FTSE 250 dropped another 70 points to close on 9,167.60

Stateside the Dow Jones average had a quiet day on Friday; closing on 10318.16 The NASDAQ dropped just ten points on the day’s trading to close on 2146.04.

Gold maintained a grip near its all-time high while oil prices dipped and base metals eased as commodity markets paused for breath after their recent strong run.

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BOE takes a more optimistic view of UK economy.

November 13th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Exchage Rate, Global Credit Crisis, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England (BOE) has taken an about turn on his previous forecasts for economic growth in the UK in the coming two years, He tampers his newly found optimism with forecasts that any recovery in the UK economy will be both slow and unstable, largely because of the slow rate of industrial output which has been endemic since early 2008. King was quoted as saying that "Britain was facing a prolonged period of balance sheet adjustment” as households, businesses and government understandably rein in spending to levels they can afford. The BOE in its most recent quarterly inflation report has forecast growth rates of 2.1 per cent for 2010 and 4 per cent for 2011, making for a major upward revision from their own forecasts in August, of 1.9 per cent and 3 per cent for 2010 and 2011 respectively. The bank’s forecasts are also much higher than the outlook of private sector economists and even the UK Treasury’s predictions. Mervyn King.

Presenting the Bank’s latest quarterly inflation report, King predicted that the UK economy has "only just started" along its road to economic recovery, and lending by commercial banks would "probably remain weak over the next three years". The governor also predicted during his speech that inflation may "rise sharply over the next few months", triggered by VAT returning to 17.5% on 1 January 2010 as well as the effects of ever increasing fuel costs.

According to data from the Office for National Statistics, unemployment in the UK rose at its slowest rate for 18 months. Yet another signal that the UK economy may finally be on the verge of returning to growth in the fourth quarter of 2009. The level of employment in the UK is recorded through a complicated series of measures. Figures from the ILO (International Labour Organisation) showed that the number of people without a job, rose by 30,000 in the three months to September, bringing the total unemployed to 2.461 million, which was the smallest rise recorded since the second quarter of 2008. Unemployment levels in the UK now stand at 7.8%, which is 0.2% lower than most economic forecasts.

Lloyds Banking Group has announced that they plan increase the amount of fresh capital that they intend to raise by £1.5 billion, from £21 billion to £22.5 billion. The increase came in response to demands by the bank’s bondholders for a larger allocation of the contingent convertible instruments (CoCos). The news of the interested in CoCos was especially encouraging for the US Federal Reserve who is reportedly in talks with Wall Street executives over whether US financial groups should also use this method to raise capital. In the case of the Lloyds CoCos, they would be convertible if their equity strength falls from its current level of 8.6 per cent to below 5 per cent.

British Airways (BA) has announced that they are in advanced talks with and Spanish airline Iberia over some form of merger. Both companies are expected to hold separate board meetings at the earliest opportunity to discuss final details of the merger

In an official statement, representatives of BA hastened to point out that the meetings would consider the potential transaction, and that firm decisions had yet to been taken, and there were no guarantees that a deal would take place. Iberia has leaked that the deal under discussion would give it 45% and BA 55% of a new merged company. The firms have considered a tie-up for a number of years, and held talks on the issue in July 2008. BA chief executive Willie Walsh has previously said that a merger would help both firms in the current economic climate. Reports of the imminent merger sent British Airways shares higher, climbing 7.5 percent to 215 pence.

Share in telecoms operator BT Group, rose 3.7 per cent to 147 pence after they announced that they will be raising their full-year revenue outlook and dividend forecast for 2009. Thanks to a series of cost cutting measures including cutting back on 15,000 jobs, BT increased their second-quarter earnings to more than £900 million. The positive outlook for BT came as they announced along with their second quarter results that they are to raise their total cost-savings target for 2009/2010 from £1 billion to £1.5 billion.

The world’s largest owner of shopping malls Westfield Group have announced that retail sales in October at their UK centres in the U.K. have risen at the fastest pace in seven years, amounting to 3.7 percent in the three months. The company also reported that the number of stores closing in their centers has also fallen since steadily since the second quarter.

According to a recent statement, Westfield’s London shopping complex, which opened at the height of the global financial crisis last year, has attracted some 20 million visitors and has signed more than 15 new tenants.

Sterling continued to lose ground on Thursday trading falling against all the major currencies, with the notable exception of the Japanese yen.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6553
  • Pound/Euro 1.1136
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 150.0166
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6842

The FTSE 100 continues to gain strength, up 46 points to 5,276.55. The FTSE 250 also rose, up 175 points to 9,295.92.

In the US, fears continued to be voiced that, "the ‘real’ economy, as opposed to the financial one is still struggling to recover" and that if the government withdrew its stimulus spending measures, the economy could take some major steps backwards. The Dow Jones indexes erratic behaviour over the last few weeks as well as an already depressed job market seems to indicate the fact.

Meanwhile US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner, continue to voice his belief in the importance of a strong dollar, His statement came as the dollar dropped to its 15-month low. The continuing weakness of the World’s staple currency has led to some concern over the future of the dollar in its traditional role in the global economy. According to Geithner, the United States bears a special responsibility for trying to make sure that their global policies will sustain investors in the currency.

His words of comfort helped Wall Street very little, as the Dow Jones lost some of its earlier gains of this week, down 19 points to 10227.92. The NASDAQ made a minor increase, up six points 2157.17.

Warnings continue to come from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the recent rises in oil prices "risks derailing the recovery" if they continue, whilst. Pointing out that demand for the "black gold" itself would slow down if price rises continue in 2010. The price of oil is now around $79 dollars a barrel, representing a rise of 77% so far this year. The IEA "in their monthly report, pointed their finger at China who they say are driving up demand, causing them to revised upwardly revise their forecasts. Overall the organisation predicts a 1.6% increase in demand for oil, up to 86.2 million barrels a day.

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Brown agrees to bin the Tobin tax

November 10th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Exchage Rate, Recession, Retail, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown was observed to be rapidly retreating from his proposal that a financial transactions tax be imposed to aid the global economy. Brown, made the speech on Saturday at a meeting of global finance ministers, suffered a backlash on his proposal to implement a miniscule “Tobin tax”. The Tobin tax originally saw the light of day in the early 1970s and was evolved by James Tobin, an influential American macroeconomist and recipient of the Nobel Prize for economics, of that time who proposed imposing a small tax on every amount exchanged from one currency into another. The US was among the first to criticise Mr. Brown who up till now has defended the financial sector against more aggressive moves on regulation by other European governments in the past.

A recent report has suggested that in the past six months alone, only one in ten UK savers have enjoyed an increase on the interest rates paid on their accounts despite the Bank of England’s base rate remaining static…

The study shows that 10% of variable savings accounts are paying lower rates than they were in May, with just 3.5% of variable rate accounts have seen interest rates increase over the same period, despite the implied competition for savers’ deposits.

According to the report, almost half of variable rate accounts are being paid less than 0.5%, while almost a quarter of the banks are offering returns below 0.1%.

The pound continued its recovery against the dollar over the weekend, rising also against all the major currencies.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6835
  • Pound/Euro 1.232
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 151.2029
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6947

As Monday’s bidding deadline drew closer, shares in Cadbury eased by 0.5 percent to 758 pence. Market analysts expect US food company Kraft to make a formal offer on Monday under the current terms whilst leaving room for maneuver at a later stage. Kraft Foods offer is projected to be around £10 billion ($16.59 billion), and will setting the battle for control of the famed British confectionary company officially in motion.

Those apparently in the know have stated that Kraft had always planned to take its offer directly to Cadbury shareholders, This they will do on Monday, in response to the U.K. Takeover Panel’s deadline to either make a formal offer or back off for six months.

On early rumours that the debt-laden rail and coach operator National Express could launch a fully underwritten £250 million placing and open offer as early as next week, their shares added 4.3 per cent to 330 pence on early trading.

Meanwhile it was reported that Vodafone are preparing a fresh round of cost cutting in an attempt to offset falling revenue at the mobile phone operator.

Vodafone intend to reduce their operating expenses by £1 billion gradually by March 2011, however market analysts now say that the target might even be increased to £1.5 billion. Expectations are that Vodafone will report turnover of £21.6 billion for the six months to September 30, meaning an increase of 8.3 per cent on the same period in 2008, with profits of £7.5 billion, up 2.8 per cent.

Rising unemployment and economic uncertainty in the UK has helped one company report revenues to increase revenues by 15.6 per cent in the six months to September 30. BrightHouse, who rents high-end consumer durables to people who have a low or non-existent credit rating, enjoyed profit growth up £94.6 million for the period. The privately owned retail chain, who supply top-of-the-range television sets, electrical appliance and furniture on a kind of rent/buy agreement without requiring large deposits. Turnover was increased thanks to the opening of 11 new stores in the period, bringing the nationwide total to 188, although like-for-like revenue also rose by close to ten per cent. BrightHouse’s earnings were up 23.7 per cent from the same six-month period in 2008.

Battery-operated robotic hamsters costing about £6 each look like becoming the Christmas hit for 2009, with demand in the UK for outgunning supply. GoGo Pets are the hottest toy of the season, seemingly on a par with demand for the famous Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, the smash hit of Christmas 1987. The interactive hamsters, Squiggles, Patches, Chunk, Pipsqueak and NumNums, respond to touch with squeaks and noises, and can be set to run about randomly in “explore” mode, and to “coo and chirp” calmly when held. Initial demand for the toys has proven so strong that retail giant Toys R Us had removed them from their Christmas toy catalogue to avoid disappointing customers.

On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed 17.1 points higher at 5,142.7 after a volatile session in which the market rose on early trading and then fell sharply after the release of a key US unemployment report, later recovering as the data was reassessed.

The FTSE 100 rose by 98 points, or 2 per cent for the week, its best weekly performance for a month. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 rose 62.3 points to 9.082.7, leaving the mid-cap index up 170 points, or 2.2 per cent.

Irish airline Aer Lingus has announced a drop in sales of 9.7% in the third quarter, largely due to a drop in long-haul passenger traffic.

In the three months to September, long-haul numbers dropped 13%, offset by increase of 10%, passenger traffic in short-haul flights

Despite the reduction in turnover, share values s surged 11% to 62 Eurocents as investors recognized some clear signs that the loss-making airline was beginning to stabilise. Last month, the carrier said it would cut almost 800 jobs to try to save 97 million Euros a year (£90 million) by 2011.

The dollar jumped and Wall Street stocks look set to open lower after a crucial report on the US labour market showed unemployment at a fresh 26-year high. The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 per cent in September to 10.2 per cent last month, as the Labor Department announced that non-farm payrolls in October fell by 190,000, the highest since April 1983.

Despite the negative figures, the Dow Jones held its own, up 17.46 points to 10023.42. The NASDAQ also climbed a little, reaching 2112.44.

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Darling gives Lloyds the nod to test the water

October 29th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Loans, Money Management, Mortgages, Recession, Retail, Saving, Stocks and shares, The Markets, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling now appears likely to give Lloyds the go ahead to test the seriousness of its ambitious £25 billion refinancing plan. Darling’s tacit agreement will be looked upon by city watchers as a definite indication that the chancellor could be prepared to release the bank from its obligations to the government’s toxic asset insurance scheme. It would appear that Darling has concluded that Lloyds’ plan to bring in more private capital is in the public interest. However it would appear that his final decision will only be positive when he is convinced that the market is ready for such a bold initiative. Darling is expected to announce his decision to the Lloyds at the early part of next week. The move will mean that the bank can then begin to appoint underwriters and test the market. Only then will Darling make the final decision and may even withdraw approval for the plan if he concludes the move carries to many risks for the already under siege UK taxpayer.

As expected, the European Union (EU) has approved plans for nationalized bank Northern Rock to be split into two parts, a move that is expected to pave the way for a partial sale of the bank.

One half of the bank, known as the "good" bank, would trade as retail bank holding deposits including some of the Rock’s existing mortgages, as well as lending money to consumers only.

The toxic side of the bank will remain in government hands, whose unenviable task it would be to attempt to salvage as much as the taxpayer’s money tied up there. The chancellor has ruled out the possibility of completing the sale of Northern Rock before the general election, in spite of winning approval from Brussels.

Meanwhile Spanish banking giants Santander continue to clean up on the UK high street. The bank announced that profits during the first nine months of the year for its UK banks have risen by more than a third.

Abbey, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley banks, owned by Santander announced a £1.2 billion profit, up 38% from the same period in 2008.

Debt laden bus and rail operator National Express has wound up their discussions with rival Stagecoach regarding a possible merger. Instead they will press ahead with their plans to mount a rights issue to re-finance the company. Yesterday’s announcement follows weeks of speculation over a possible tie-up between the groups that would have created a transport giant with an estimated worth of £1.7 billion.

Oil and gas supply group BG, announced on Wednesday that their post-tax profits for the third quarter had fallen 39 per cent to £474 million from last year’s £777 million. A spokesman for the company said that the fall in gas and oil prices had been partially offset by advance sales of liquefied natural gas at advantageous prices. Although natural gas has rallied since early September, it had not done as well as crude oil during continued signs of economic recovery.

Sterling continued to rise in value yesterday against the dollar, while rising slightly against the Euro.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6393
  • Pound/Euro 1.1131
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 148.0908
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6804

London’s FTSE 100 dropped 2.32% or 120.55 points to close on 5080.42. The FTSE 250 plummeted a further 3.19% percent yesterday, down 291.78 points to close on 8849.50

For the first time in half a year, sales of new homes in the US fell as buyers opted for bargains on existing and foreclosed houses. Unexpectedly new home sales fell by 3.6 per cent from August to September, defying economists’ expectations that they would increase. Compared with a year ago, sales of new homes were down by 7.8 per cent, according to commerce department figures

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.21% after news that the annual rate of US new home sales had fallen unexpectedly in September.

At close of trading Wednesday it had fallen 119.48 points to 9762.69. The NASDAQ Composite index also took a tumble down 56.48 points to 2059.61.

It was announced on Wednesday that new orders for durable goods rebounded in September after slumping the prior month, offering another sign that manufacturing activity is stirring in the US

European shares also fell fairly sharply yesterday, largely due to disappointing company results and negative US economic data.

Norway has become the first European country to raise its interest rates since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The country’s central bank raised the cost of borrowing from 1.25% to 1.5% in a move that was widely expected. A spokesman for the bank stated that the increase was necessary due to increases in inflation and recent unemployment figures that were considerably lower than previously projected.

Oil prices dropped by more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday, as the latest US weekly inventories data continued to show supply outstripping demand. All in all the expected recovery in the dollar weighed on investor sentiment towards the commodities market.

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House prices rise again in September.

October 8th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Exchage Rate, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, The Budget, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

For the third consecutive month of increase, UK housing prices have increased. They are reported to have risen by as much as 1.6% in September. Housing prices in the UK continue to remain considerably lower than in September 2008, as much as 7.4 percent. However since the end of 2008, prices have grown by 1.7 percent as increased demand and reduced inventory have combined to push housing prices up, especially in the recent months. House prices increased by 2.8% in the third quarter of 2009, making for the first rise since the third quarter of 2007, and the largest percentage growth since the first quarter of the same year. The increased demand for property is believed to stems from improved affordability, and the reduction in both interest rates.

It may come to pass that the U.K.’s largest government-controlled bank, the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) may have to surrender more than ten percent of their one million small business customers, The reason being that the European Commission has imposed a penalty on the RBS for receiving billions of pounds of state aid. Currently it is reported that the RBS, in a move designed to reduce their credit card risk portfolio are only issuing new cards to existing clients.

The Office for National Statistics has announced that U.K. manufacturing output has slumped 1.9% from the month in August whilst dropping 11.3% on a yearly basis. The wider industrial production measure fell 2.5% from July and slid 11.2% from August 2008.

The FTSE 100 rose by 2.26 percent on yesterday’s trading, or 113.65 points to close on 5137.98. The FTSE 250 was still on the rise, but at a reduced pace, closing up a further 25.12 points to close for the day on 9,226.35.

The pound made a minor recovery against the leading currencies, while continuing to hover around $1.60. The Sterling’s latest bout of weakness surrounding Sterling began after UK industrial production was shown to have slumped in August. Additional statistics released on Wednesday show that corporate profitability in the UK had deteriorated for a fifth successive quarter and is standing at its lowest level since 2001.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.5958
  • Pound/Euro 1.10863
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 141.422
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.64861

Europe’s largest discount airline, Ryanair Holdings Plc set aside as being of “no substance” recent reports claiming that the company is preparing to take control of Aer Lingus Group Plc through a rights issue. In another sign of the advantage that short-haul, low-cost carriers such as EasyJet hold over long-haul flag carriers during the current downturn, the company announced that it had handled more than 4.4 million passengers in September, an increase of 5.3 per cent over the corresponding month in 2008. The increase, the largest since April, was well above the 4.7 per cent rise the airline recorded in August, traditionally one of its busiest months. In any event, stock in EasyJet fell 0.3 percent, to 3.38 Euros.

According to Sir Terry Leahy, chief executive of Tesco, the worst is over for the UK economy as well as for the U.K.’s premier food retailer. Sir Terry’s revelation came after Tesco’s announced pre-tax profit for the first half of its financial year rose that had risen by 1 per cent to £1.42 billion. Sir Terry prediction is that that the UK would see a “slow and steady recovery” as the money pumped into the economy to stimulate it had to be paid back. He added that uncertainties over the financial outlook for 2010, such as public sector cuts, the proposed increase in value added tax and the threat of rising unemployment, would not be sufficient to prevent “a gradual recovery. Sir Terry also defended Tesco’s performance in the US, where its Fresh & Easy chain has reported losses of £85 million in the six months to the end of August. Shares in Tesco rose 0.4 percent, to 391.4 pence.

The management team at Matalan have reportedly held several meetings over the past few weeks to examine strategic options for the discount clothing and home-ware retailer. Subjects on the agenda included the possible sale of the company during 2010 with an asking price of around £1.5 billion pounds. If a sale was to go through, and discussions are at a very early stage, company founder John Hargreaves would be liable to realise hundreds of millions of pounds in profits from the sale. Matalan have invested significant sums of money in revamping their 200 UK stores have reported solid profits for June.

Shares in Vodafone, the World’s largest mobile phone service providers were under pressure for a second day, dropping 2 per cent to 137 pence. The share price fall could be attributed to a culmination of factors, among them, fears of a price war in India, and analyst’s predictions that AT&T was considering opening their mobile network to third-party voice applications such as Skype. A move that would put pressure on Vodafone’s Verizon Wireless division to emulate.

In the year to 30 September, the US budget deficit more than tripled to a record £877 billion ($1.4 trillion) according to US Congress estimate figures recently released. Analysts had previously predicted a slightly higher deficit but later revised their estimate, which has been attributed to increased government spending coupled with a huge drop in tax revenues. The actual deficit will be released by the Treasury Department later this month.

The Dow Jones index dropped a little on yesterday’s trading, closing on 9725.58, down 5.67 points. The NASDAQ index continued to rise, but at a slower pace, up just 6.76 points to close on 2,110.33.

The White House have announced that it was weighing policy options designed to create new jobs to ease the burden on America’s unemployed, currently numbering more than 15 million. A spokesman for the President hasted to rule out speculation that a second stimulus to provide a further boost to the US economy was on the cards. The majority of US economists believe that the country was on track to move out of recession. However the black cloud of increasing unemployment is hanging over the picture, with unemployment figures hitting 9.8 per cent, the highest rate since 1982.

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Darling looks forward to November and his pre-budget report.

October 6th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Exchage Rate, Recession, Retail, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

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Chancellor Alistair Darling has recommended a pay freeze for 40,000 senior public servants in 2010/11. Darling has written to salary review bodies calling on them to freeze the pay of top level civil servants, such as judges, senior NHS managers as well as General Practitioners. It is expected that public spending priorities and cuts will be announced in this autumn’s pre-Budget report, as the chancellor revealed he would soon be calling ministers into the Treasury for “very robust” discussions.

If the Financial Services Authority (FSA) get their way UK banks and investment firms would have to increase their holdings of cash and government bonds by £110 billion as well as reducing their reliance on short-term funding by as much as 20 per cent in the first year. This series of tough liquidity standards put forward by the FSA on Monday shows a radical firming up of liquidity requirements than in previous years. In total banks and investment firms could be required to increase their holdings of easily redeemable assets by a total of £370 billion as well as reducing their reliance on short-term funding by 80 per cent from current levels

Chief executive of the HSBC bank, Michael Geoghegan, is less convinced than many others that the global financial recovery is well under way. He has in fact taken the standpoint that a second downturn is bound to happen in the coming months. In preparation, Geoghegan plans to freeze any expansion plans for the bank till the situation becomes clearer. Speaking after HSBC announced a shake-up of its governance 10 days ago, Mr. Geoghegan is now responsible for strategic issues that previously lay with the bank’s chairman, Stephen Green.

Taking a more conservative stance on salaries are the Lloyds Banking Group, who are reportedly in the early stages of reviewing pay packages for its top executives. Lloyds, who got themselves into hot water when they rescued struggling lender HBOS last year, pledged to review remuneration after the government backed takeover. The bank did issue a statement over the weekend that no decisions had yet been made on salaries and the bank was more focused on a number of other and more pressing issues, particularly whether they will enter the government’s asset protection scheme.

According to market analysts, many British retailers are facing a worse Christmas than last year, when 15 major chains failed, rising unemployment and fragile consumer confidence would result in many companies, many of them struggling to survive until the holiday season entering formal insolvency proceedings within a year. Market information shows that 125 retail companies encountered critical trading and cash problems in September, up 37 percent from August. Outdoor goods retailer Blacks Leisure showed how difficult it is to survive in the UK high street, by announcing plans to shut down 89 of their loss making stores as well as cutting jobs as part of an emergency recovery plan.

Bucking the retail trend is the department store chain TJ Hughes, who has based their success in specialising in discounted branded goods. The company has reported a 30 percent increase in underlying profits in the year to the end of January. Hughes, who operates in 50 locations across England, Scotland and Wales, announced pre-tax earnings that rose to £9.2 million. Since June 2008, TJ Hughes has undergone aggressive expansion and a 51st store is expected to open soon

The FTSE 100 limped back over the 5,000 points mark, rising 35.63 points to close on 5024.33. The FTSE 250 made its usual early in the week recovery rising 82.57 points to close on 8982.53.

The pound continued to find it difficult to rise above the $1.60 mark, while falling behind against the remaining principal currencies.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.597
  • Pound/Euro 1.10863
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 142.4066
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6421

A recent survey has shown the US services industry rising in September for the first time in a year. The services sector accounts for 80% of the US economy. Simultaneously, separate data released showed that the US jobs market also strengthened last month for the first time since January 2008. The data boosted US markets with the Dow Jones index and NASDAQ both rising

The Dow Jones index rose by 112.08 points at 9,599.75. The NASDAQ index rose by 20.04 points to finish the day’s trading on 2,068.15.

Hundreds of farmers have protested to European Union (EU) agriculture ministers at a meeting held in Brussels to discuss low milk prices. The urgently convened meeting came as a result weeks of protests across Europe, with farmers dumping milk stocks and withholding supplies at what they see as being sold at uneconomic prices. To the farmer’s considerable chagrin, the only decision reached at the meeting was to create a panel of experts to examine at the dairy sector. Recently prices of milk and dairy products have fallen sharply in Europe as supply exceeds demand.

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Boris blows London’s trumpet.

October 6th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Recession, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, World Banks

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According to Boris Johnston, London is the best city in the world to do business, Boris, the current Mayor of London Johnson who during his visit to New York, enjoyed the privilege of ringing both the opening bell at NASDAQ and the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange, stated the case to leading American high tech and industrial concerns to locate in London. He emphasized that London remains the top global destination for digital innovation.

In a series of financial services and business meetings today, Mayor Johnson reminded New Yorkers to remember the greatness of London’s past, and to prove to the world that both New York and London are as confident as ever of their dominant roles in World business.

London’s newspaper publishing community were reportedly in a state of shock with the announcement that the Evening Standard was to become a free sheet. The move by the paper’s Russian owner Alexander Lebedev, was described by industry analysts as “more of a gamble than a calculated risk” when the news broke on Friday. Lebedev recently acquired the Evening Standard from the Daily Mail & General Trust. (DMGT).Lebedev decision makes the Standard one of the first leading titles in Europe to drop its cover price and rely entirely on advertising. Forecasts are that the move will see the paper’s current circulation of 250,000 rises to close to 600,000. The move comes after News International, part of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, announced that they will be ceasing to publish its free sheet, The London Paper. News International has been involved in distribution battle with a rival free sheet, London Lite, which is still owned by DMGT. DMGT, who have retained a 24.9 per cent stake in the Standard, are liable to close down the London Lite.

French utility Electricite de France announced on Friday that as part of a plan to reduce debt by at least 5 billion Euros, they are considering options for selling its U.K. electricity distribution business. EDF Energy is the largest electricity distribution network operator in the U.K., serving London as well as the South-East of England.

Shares in Domino’s Pizza rose as much as 5 percent to an all-time high of 307 pence after Britain’s biggest pizza delivery chain announced that it is on track to beat market expectations for the year following sales growth of 10.8 percent in the third quarter.

The FTSE 100 maintain a moderate collapse, after a long run of constant increases. On Friday it dropped 4.31 points to close on 4993.01.

Before weekend, the FTSE 250 continued to drop, below the 9,000 points barrier drop, down 49.85 points to close on 8906.62.

Despite a minor increase against the dollar, the pound remained below the $1.60 mark as trading closed down for the weekend, as it continued to stutter against the leading currencies.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.5969
  • Pound/Euro 1.109081
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 143.2797
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6473

In spite of aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, the US unemployment rate climbed to 9.8 per cent in September, making for a fresh 26-year high. Official figures released on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls dropped by 263,000, making it the 21st consecutive month that the US economy has shed jobs. The data were worse than economists predicted, with a 175,000 drop in payrolls, following a decline of 201,000 jobs in August.

These figures go a long way in re-iterating recent statements from World Bank president Robert Zoellick that US economic power is declining as a result of the financial crisis. Until recently regarded as the world’s largest and most dynamic economy, The US has been in the grips of a bitter recession for almost two years, while emerging economies like China and Brazil have grown. Zoellick predicts that a long-term rebalancing of the world economy may well be under way..

Despite hints of a recovery the Dow Jones index continued to adjust downwards, closing 21.61 points down at 9,387.67. The NASDAQ index fared slightly better, falling only 9.37 points to 2,048.11.

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IMF predict that the Treasury may not recover all the money invested in the banks.

September 17th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Exchage Rate, Gold, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, The Markets, UK Banks

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Contrary to recent forecasts, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), never known for their optimistic approach to the current financial downturn, have cast serious doubts on the Treasury’s hopes of recovering the money spent bailing out UK banks.

A recent report issued by the IMF has stated that recovery rates for past financial crises were just 55% in advanced countries and as low as 15% in emerging economies.

If the statistics are to be applied to the current situation, then half of the money Gordon Brown committed to rescuing the City may never be recovered. However because of the severity of the current crisis, with bank guarantees equivalent to more than a third of gross domestic product having being issued, even 50% may prove to be an optimistic forecast.

Following the start of the crisis in the global financial sector in 2007, the UK banking sector absorbed losses on loans and securities of around £110 billion by the end of 2008 and raised or arranged around £120 billion of new capital by the middle of 2009. Estimates of further losses of around £130 billion from the loan books and securities portfolios of rated UK financial institutions are expected. Meanwhile it has been reported that negative outlook for credit conditions in the UK banking sector will continue for at least the next 12 – 18 months. Expectations are that the sustained weakness of the economic environment in the UK will continue to feed a situation where loan arrears will continue to grow, both in the consumer and business sectors.

The world’s largest mining group BHP Billiton has predicted that global steel demand is liable to double over the next 15 years as the economic “upswing” already being felt in China would be followed by a rebound in growth from developed nations in 2010.

A spokesman for BHP said that China’s recovery has been stronger than expected and there was little sign that their momentum had stalled during the financial downturn of the last 12-18 months.

China is BHP’s most important customer accounting for 20 per cent of it’s around £30 billion in sales in 2008-09.

The UK’s FTSE 100 index also achieved its highest close for almost a year, rising 22 points to close at 5124.3 while the FTSE 250 rose on Wednesday by 52.60 points to 9305.24.

The pound, after taking a beating over the last few days, made a minor recovery yesterday.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6509
  • Pound/Euro 1.1202
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 150.504
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7031

Shares on Wall Street continued upwards thanks to better-than-expected industrial production data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 107.5 points at 9,791.71, which makes for an 11-month high. It has now risen for eight of the past nine days. The NASDAQ also moved on up, this time is thirty points to 2133.15.

US consumer prices rose in August from July but analysts said the risks of inflation in the economy remained low. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% last month having been flat in July.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have predicted that the global recession could eventually cost the jobs of 25 million people, despite recent signs that economies of its 30 member countries may be starting to recover.

Fifteen million jobs have been lost so far, and according to the OECD up to 10 million more could go by the end of 2010.

The unemployment rate across the 30 most industrialised nations in the OECD was 8.5% for July 2009, the highest since World War II, having risen from an all-time low of 5.6% at the end of 2007.

Gold extended its push beyond the $1,000 mark on Wednesday, closing in on the record price set last March as bullion was boosted by renewed dollar weakness and concerns about the outlook for inflation.

Gold traded at $1,015 a troy ounce in London, after settling at the end of Tuesday’s session in New York at $1,005.90, its highest ever closing price.

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The FSA to keep the Royal Bank of Scotland on a short leash.

September 7th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Exchage Rate, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

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The Financial Services Authority has banned Royal Bank of Scotland from making repayments on bonds worth £920 million pounds next month. They are doing so as a result of concerns that the partly nationalised bank is too reliant on billions of pounds of taxpayer’s money to remain afloat. RBS is in advanced talks with the European Commission (EC) to decide the nature of fiscal restraints to be imposed on the bank in return for its government funding. Among other measures, the EC is likely to force the bank to cut its share in the small-business banking market.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has predicted that the UK economy should bounce back next year. They did hasten to add that the risk of the economy relapsing still remains high. The BCC announced in a recent statement that they expect the economy to grow 1.1% in 2010, almost double their previous forecast of 0.6% made as recently as June. According the report, unemployment will peak at around 3 million, fewer than the 3.2 million forecast previously.

At a weekend meeting of the G20 in London, finance ministers representing the world’s most powerful economies have reached agreement on a series of measures designed to regulate the global banking system.

The ministers are interested in implementing a system that will reward long-term performance rather than short-term risk-taking among the global banking community, without reaching agreement on specific limits on the amounts individual bankers get paid.

Britain, the US and Canada were reported to be against the proposal, which is due for further discussion at the summit of G20 leaders in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania later this month.

The UK economy should bounce back next year but the risk of a relapse remains high, a business group has warned.

The British Chambers of Commerce expects the economy to grow 1.1% in 2010, almost double its previous forecast of 0.6% made in June.

It says unemployment will peak at just above 3 million, fewer than the 3.2 million forecast previously.

However, it said that sustaining the recovery would prove challenging given the UK’s debt burden.

Vodafone and O2 have both tabled bids of about £3.5 billion to buy T-Mobile UK from owner Deutsche Telecom, with a successful bid from either firm liable to make them the largest mobile phone operator in the UK.

High street retail chain, Wilkinsons have succeeded in filling a large part of the vacuum left when Woolworths closed their doors towards the end of 2008. The company reported annual sales up by 6.2 percent to 1.4 billion pounds in the year to the end of January, a record for the family-owned group. Wilkinsons have announced their plans for expansion, in which they will open 15 new outlets by 2009, as they drive to reach a target of at least 500 outlets by 2012.

The U.K.’s largest recruitment company Hays Plc retreated 3.7 percent to 96.1 pence on the announcement that their full-year profit had declined by 44 percent due to reduced hiring in the recession.

The U.K. developer of software for William Hill Plc’s Web-gambling site Playtech Ltd announced a 38% increase on pre-tax profits. Their shares rose in value by 13.25 pence to 346 on the news.

Shares in Premier Farnell Plc the U.K. electronic and industrial products distributor dropped 7.2 percent to 151.3 pence after they reported earnings and turnover and profit that fell behind analysts’ estimates.

The FTSE 100 index ended a further 54.95 points higher at 4,851.70. The index has now risen by 38 percent from its six-year low in early March, on hopes that the worst of the global recession is behind us in the UK.

Meanwhile the FTSE 250 rose again on Friday, up 141.05 points to close on 8,745.85.

The pound rose against the dollar, yen and Swiss franc, yet continued to falter against the Euro.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6398
  • Pound/Euro 1.1449
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 152.6881
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7361

The number of US workers claiming unemployment benefits has fallen last week but continued to be a cause for concern, with fears that unemployment figures will remain high even after the US moves out of recession.

New jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 570,000; however the number of workers continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose by 92,000 to 6.23 million.

Wall Street on Friday saw the markets continuing to rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 99.66 points to close on 9441.27 while the NASDAQ Composite index hurdled the 2,000 mark yet again, closing for the weekend on 2018.78.

The European Central Bank (ECB) remain cautious on the state of economy in the 16 nation Eurozone, forecasting that growth would be very gradual and is capable of being thrown into reverse again.

Evidence of the ECB’s continued wariness, was the news that they had left their main interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 1 per cent, which is a record low.

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