According to a recent report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) UK house prices are liable to rise by about a fifth in the next four years. The forces that will push property prices up are increased lending levels by the banks and interest rates remaining at a low level.

Home values will rise 6.5 percent in 2010 and will have gained around 20 percent by the end of 2013, according to CEBR radically altering their forecast of October 2009, which house prices would increase by only 2.6 percent this year.

CEBR’s announcement strengthens reports from the Nationwide Building Society that showed house prices have begun rising again after the economy returned to growth. However their optimism was dashed by news that potential UK house buyers could soon face a chronic shortage of credit that will see mortgages ‘rationed’.

According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (COML) as government schemes to keep mortgage lending afloat are due to dry up in 2014, their fears that a funding gap to the tune of £300 billion will open up. COML predicted in their recent report that the UK is at risk of a chronic under-supply of credit, bringing with it the rationing of mortgages for customers that will continue for many years. Before the financial crisis, the funding gap, meaning the difference between what banks took in savers’ deposits and what they lent out, was always covered by the wholesale market in mortgage debt.

As a result of lower oil and gas prices, oil giant BP have reported a 45% drop in annual profit Its replacement cost profit for 2009 was £8.75 billion, compared with £15.39 billion in 2008. The company said that its oil and gas production increased more than 4% in 2009 and its reserves had grown for the 17th year in a row. Profits during the final three months of 2009 were up 33% from the same period a year ago.

However, the fourth quarter results fell short of analysts’ expectations, causing BP shares to fall more than 4% in early trading.

Shares in Northumbrian Water surged 12 percent after press reports that the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan may bid £1.7 billion ($2.7 billion) for the company. The water utilities market in the UK is liable to benefit if the speculation on Northumbrian Water is confirmed as it will establish a higher trading range for the other water stocks. On the news, Northumbrian Water rose by 12 percent to close on 289 pence. The Ontario pension fund already owns 27 percent of the U.K. water company and wants to buy the remaining stake.

Severn Trent caught the wave and added 4 percent to 1,170 pence while United Utilities gained 2.8 percent to 551.5 pence.

South Korea’s National Pension Service, the world’s fifth biggest pension fund, will next week take a 12 per cent stake in Gatwick airport, stressing that investment in Britain will play a significant role in quadrupling its international exposure. The NPS, which is aiming to expand its overall portfolio, came to the attention of Britain’s financial community last year when it bought the headquarters of HSBC in Canary Wharf for £773 million. Gatwick airport was sold late last year to Global Infrastructure Partners, an infrastructure fund backed by Credit Suisse and General Electric, for £1.51 billion.

The longest running saga in recent UK takeover history drew to a happy close as US firm Kraft Foods sealed their takeover of Cadbury after shareholders in the UK chocolate maker voted in favour of the deal.

Cadbury said it had received valid acceptances of the offer from investors representing 71.7% of the firm. Kraft chief executive Irene Rosenfeld celebrated the takeover by announcing: "I warmly welcome Cadbury employees into the Kraft Foods family." Despite the warm welcome, Cadbury employees staged protests in London calling for government support to guarantee jobs

Budget airline Ryanair has raised its full-year profit forecast as passenger numbers continue to rise. The company announced that it said it expects full-year net profits of about 275 million Euros, whilst reporting a 10.9 million Euro; (£9.5 million) loss in fourth quarter of 2009, a considerable improvement on the 101.5 million Euro losses for the same period in 2008.

Ryanair said the result had been helped by a 37% fall in fuel costs and passenger numbers increased by 14%, which had offset a 12% drop in fares.

Europe’s second- largest tobacco company Imperial Tobacco Group Plc have announced a “good start” to the year with business “in line” with company expectations, despite the weak economic climate. Despite the news, their shares declined 1.2 percent, to 2,002 pence. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are to allow its top performing employees to convert a large portion of bonuses given in shares into cash within 12 weeks of receiving them, according to a letter sent to investors yesterday. On the day RBS shares rose 7.9 percent, to 34.86 pence.

The pound closed down at 1.5977 against the dollar, while the Euro traded at 1.1438

The FTSE 100 dropped 4.1 percent in January as the U.S. government called for limits on risk-taking by banks and China moved to restrict lending and cool economic growth. The gauge is still 49 percent higher than in March after governments and central banks around the world sought to encourage growth by maintaining low interest rates and committing more than $12 trillion to stimulate the economy.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index added 35.9 points to reach 5,283.31 at the close of trading in London.

US President Barack Obama has announced a $3.8 trillion (£2.4 trillion) budget plan for 2011, which includes increased spending for job creation, but cuts in other areas.

He also forecast the US deficit would rise to a record $1.56 trillion this year.

He scrapped plans to send astronauts back to the Moon and will seek to save $250 billion by capping a range of domestic spending programmes for three years.

Congress must approve the budget for the financial year starting on 1 October for it to take effect.

Mr Obama blamed the huge deficit on the decisions of President George W Bush, previous Congresses and his administration’s moves to prevent an economic collapse.

Stocks continued to extend gains after reports showing the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded more than forecast. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index showed U.S. manufacturing expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2004, spearheading the recovery from the worst recession since the nineteen-thirties.

On the news, the Dow Jones rose sharply, to close on 10284.91, while the NASDAQ rose 38 points, to finish on 2185.32

Gold lost some of the previous day’s sharp gains, dropping 0.1 per cent to $1,105. Oil rose 0.5 per cent to $74.81 a barrel.

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Tags: Banking, Barack Obama, British Economy, Cadbury, Centre for Economics and Business Research, Council of Mortgage Lenders, Credit Suisse, Dow Jones, Economy, Employment, Financial News, FTSE, Gatwick Airport, General Electric, George W. Bush, Global Infrastructure Partners, HSBC, Imperial Tobacco Group Plc, Kraft Foods, Money, NASDAQ, Nationwide Building Society, Northumbrian Water, Oil, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Property Prices, Recession, Retail, Royal Bank of Scotland, Ryanair, Severn Trent, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession

UK public opinion is reported to be swinging the way of large scale cuts in the public service sector, according to recent reports. The sector, costing taxpayer’s record amounts of money each year. Is now employing more people than ever before. Unions who represent public sector employees are anticipating having a have a fight on their hands, if as expected, the Conservative party wins the next election and inherits an economy still struggling to pull itself out of recession.

According to statistics issued by the Office for National Statistics before the weekend, business investment in the UK fell 0.6% sequentially in the third quarter, significantly less than the 3% initially estimated. British private and public sector manufacturing investment has reportedly fallen 9.4% since the second quarter and by almost 30 % since the third quarter of 2008.

According to a recent report by the Bank of England the “probability of default by U.K. real estate companies has increased significantly” as households continue to face a weakening labor market paired with tightening credit conditions.

Amid concerns that the government’s 50% banking bonus tax could seriously damage future business levels, stock markets around the world have been focusing upon the city of London investment markets. The UK government went as far as issuing a report, released on Friday, clarifying who is liable to fall under the scope of the banking tax.

With reports in circulation that UK banks, and especially those whose activities are centered on in London continue to consider their position regarding the banking bonus tax, which has been mooted as a one-off charge, is making people in the banking world a little hot under the collar.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has raised its 2010 economic growth forecast, whilst predicting that the Bank of England may place their bond-purchase plan on hold as soon as February as policy makers prepare to raise interest rates.

The CBI also predict that gross domestic product in the UK will increase 1.2 percent in 2010 after contracting 4.5 percent in 2009, up from their previously forecast expansion of 0.9 percent. The group also predicts the bank will raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.5 percent in the second quarter to reach 2 percent by the end of the year.

The recovery will be aided by companies rebuilding stocks to meet a rebound in world growth and as exporters benefit from a weaker pound, down almost a quarter since the start of 2007, making British goods cheaper to buy abroad.

Google, smart boys that they are, succeeded in not paying a penny in corporation tax on the £1.6 billion advertising revenues that it earned in Britain in 2008. The company, which enjoys an estimated 90% market share of UK internet searches, last year, used a cross-border network of subsidiary companies to keep the taxman at bay. Their smoothly interwoven international corporate structure enabled Google to avoid paying what could otherwise have been a corporation tax bill in the UK of as much as £450 million, according to recently filed accounts for subsidiary company Google UK Limited. The accounts show none of the search engine’s advertising revenues from British customers were accounted for in the business, despite operations in London and Manchester While much of the costs linked to the running of Google’s British operations are recognised for tax purposes in the UK. Revenues from customers in Britain, however, are diverted to another Google company in Ireland, where the corporation tax rate is between 10% and 25%, while UK corporation tax is levied at between 28 and 30%

The British Pound has begun to recover and bounced back to a high of 1.6251 on Friday following the rise in risk appetite. Analysts predict that Sterling may continue to recover as a recent Bank of England Financial Stability report said the U.K. financial system has become “significantly more stable”. This was credited to the unprecedented steps taken on by the government.

• Dollar 1.6152
• Euro 1.1262

Things were pretty brisk on the FTSE 100 approaching the weekend, with

nursing homes group Care UK drawing a lot of attention. The company has been reportedly been considering whether to accept a £275 million pound bid from Bridgepoint which will take them private. Care that runs 60 nursing homes, GP practices and NHS walk-in centres in the UK saw their shares rise 10.5 pence to 430.5 pence on Friday.

Overall U.K. stocks were on a minor downward spiral, with banks leading the way. Lloyds Banking Group Plc and Barclays Plc were are ever leading the way, as the European Central Bank (ECB) increased their estimate of the value of write downs by 13 percent. Lloyds, the 43 percent government-owned bank, lost 4.7 percent to 48.7 pence, to its lowest since July. Barclays, the U.K.’s second biggest bank, slid 3.5 percent to 264.25 pence.

Ryanair surged 5.8 percent to 3.282 Euros after the carrier said it will generate surplus cash for shareholders between 2012 and 2015 after they had suspended their talks with Boeing regarding future aircraft acquisitions.

Also on the up was Aggreko Plc, the world’s biggest provider of mobile power-supply gear. Their shares rallied 7.9 percent after announcing that trading in the fourth quarter was better than it estimated.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index dropped 20.8, or 0.4 percent, to 5,196.81. The FTSE 100 fell 1.2 percent this week. The gauge has still rebounded 48 percent since March and is heading for its biggest annual gain since 1997 as central banks cut interest rates to record lows and governments worldwide committed about $12 trillion to revive the economy.

On close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up to 10, 328.61 while the NASDAQ was stable on 2,211.69

GM says it has failed to sell its Swedish car brand Saab and will begin "an orderly wind-down of Saab operations".

GM had been in talks with the Dutch specialty car maker Spyker over a sale. Talks with Sweden’s Koenigsegg also fell through earlier this year.

GM has been trying to sell Saab as part of its turnaround plans since January. Dutch luxury car maker Spyker has submitted a new offer to General Motors (GM) for its Swedish car brand Saab.

Spyker has submitted a new 11-point proposal to GM, addressing the issues that ended talks.

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Tags: Aggreko Plc, Bank, Bank of England, Banking, Barclays Plc, Bridgepoint, British Economy, British Pound, Care UK, CBI, Confederation of British Industry, Credit Crunch, Currency, Dow Jones, Economics, Economy, European Central Bank, Financial News, FTSE, General Motors, Google, Koenigsegg, Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Money, Money Markets, NASDAQ, NHS, Office for National Statistics, Recession, Ryanair, Saab, Spyker, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession

The announcements that Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group are to sell off hundreds of branches has added a smile to the face of.

Alistair Darling as well as the European Commission, who had insisted that the banks sell off some of their branches. In a recent statement, the chancellor confirmed his opinion that the sales, were in the "best interest" of the wider UK banking sector.

Lloyds will dispose of more than 600 branches over the next four years, while RBS will sell 318 of their high street outlets. The Spanish banking group, Santander will be allowed to bid for Royal Bank of Scotland’s branches when they are put up for sale. Under competition rules agreed between London and Brussels, Santander will be eligible to bid for some of the branches as the currently hold less than 8 per cent of the UK small business lending market. Meanwhile, Sir Richard Branson is reported to be interested in moving into the world of high street banking as his Virgin Money group has applied to the Financial Services Authority (FSA) for a banking licence.

There are even some contentious rumors around that no less a company than PayPal might find them on the UK high street. Reports have it that PayPal already have an EU banking license, granted to them in May 2007, so why not a place for the outsiders!

Britain’s fourth-biggest supermarket group, WM Morrison have sent a message to their major suppliers that they will be looking for increased support for their increased and more aggressive promotion campaigns, The campaigns are aimed to increase their market share in what has become an increasingly competitive market. Morrison’s move comes as the prices of basic food stuffs begin to drop.

Europe’s biggest low-cost airline Ryanair announced on Monday that it is considering slowing down its rapid expansion program, and instead break with tradition by distributing cash earmarked to buy new aircraft to their shareholders instead. The company raised the possibility of the strategic shift while announcing a 46 per cent rise in second-quarter profits. The company has kept its full-year profit forecast steady, although they expect that figures for the third and fourth quarters will be less than rosy.

Sterling continued to weaken against the dollar, whilst rising slightly against the Euro and holding its own against the rest of the major currencies.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6398
• Pound/Euro 1.1168
• Pound/Japanese Yen 148.3102
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6874

The FTSE spent time under the 5,000-point mark on Tuesday with banking stocks taking the biggest toll. At close of trading, the FTSE 100 was seen to be holding its own on 5,037.2.

The FTSE 250 continues to suffer from a consistent run of heavy losses, falling more than 15% of its peal of 10,000 just a few weeks ago. At close of trading yesterday it was sitting on 8,756.68.

Troubled US commercial lender CIT Group, filed for bankruptcy on Sunday after attempts at a restructuring or bail-out failed. In a statement, CIT, who have been a key figure on the American banking scene for more than a century, announced that they had requested that the court quickly confirm its prepackaged bankruptcy plan. The plan, which has broad support from its debt holders, and in particular from Carl Icahn its billionaire investor. Icahn has agreed to provide a $1 billion line of credit, allowing the company to remain confident that they would be able to emerge from bankruptcy by the end of the year.

The US Dow Jones index made some recoveries from the last two days trading; up 61 points to 9,774.1 The NASDAQ were also fairly stable, reaching 2047.46.

The market was taken by surprise by the announcement of a swing to profitability by the auto manufacturing giant Ford. The company posted its first quarterly profit in more than a year, thanks to the implementation of cost-cutting and the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” rebates helped produce earnings of nearly $billion, or 29 cents a share, during the third quarter. Shares in Ford closed up 8.3 per cent at $7.58.

Australia’s economy continues to be the rising star of the global economies, so much so that it central bank has increased its interest rate for the second consecutive month, up a quarter percent to 3.5%. The Australian economy is the only one in the developed world to expand in the first half of 2009, with the continent largely managing to steer clear of recession, only entering into negative growth for the last quarter of 2008. The bank’s confidence was justifiably increased by the release last week of the lowest inflation figures in Australia for 10 years.

The price of gold price hit a fresh record high on Tuesday as India agreed to buy 200 tonnes of bullion from the International Monetary Fund. The move caused traders to speculate that there would be further purchases by the emerging economies. India’s purchase valued at around $6.7 billion, accounts for half of the IMF’s expected disposal of gold and signals a growing appetite among developing countries’ central banks for bullion in the wake of the global economic and financial crisis, coming after China had revealed earlier in the year that it had quietly almost doubled its gold reserves to become the world’s fifth-biggest holder.

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Tags: Alistair Darling, Bank, Banking, British Economy, British Pound, Bullion, Carl Icahn, cash for clunkers, CIT Group, Credit Crunch, Currency, Dow Jones, Economics, Economy, EU banking license, European Commission, Financial News, Financial Services Authority, Ford, FSA, FTSE, Gold, Government, Interest Rates, International Monetary Fund, Lloyds, Lloyds Banking Group, Money, Money Markets, NASDAQ, Paypal, RBS, Recession, Retail, Royal Bank of Scotland, Ryanair, Santander, Savings, Sir Richard Branson, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, UK banking sector, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, Virgin, Virgin Money group, WM Morrison

In an unprecedented move, the Department of Health and the Treasury have invited companies in the private sector to submit tenders to take over and run a large National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The contract will be all inclusive, taking in the accident and emergency as well as the maternity wards. The Hinchingbrooke Hospital, in Huntingdonshire comes under the auspices of the East of England strategic health authority who anticipate bids from the NHS as well as the private sector.

Investors are rushing to capitalise on the hedge funds industry’s resurgence resulting in a huge increase in investment in the second quarter. It is reported that more than $142.5 billion has been allocated to hedge funds over the past three months, making for one of the industry’s most significant inflows of client money to date, according to a recent report.

In transport and tourism, signs are afoot of long hard winter ahead, Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost people carrier, have announced that they will be cutting their services at their largest bases London Stansted and Dublin. Ryanair are making the cuts as it attempts to cut back on routes that are making losses as well as to benefit from reduced airport charges.

Michael O’Leary, the group’s chief executive, has blamed the cuts on planned increases in air passenger taxes in the UK and Ireland. “Sadly, UK traffic and tourism continue to collapse while Ryanair continues to grow traffic rapidly in those countries that welcome tourists instead of taxing them.” Announced O’Leary.

Despite he recent bout of warm weather and the thirst that it brings, the pace of pub closures in Britain continues to grow. Recent statistics show that closures have risen by a third during the first six months of 2009. In terms of figures, that means that more than 50 UK pubs are pulling their last pint every week.

Local family owned pubs appear to be the most vulnerable , closing their doors at a rate of 40 a week. There are now only 53,466 pubs left trading in the UK compared with 58,600 three years ago.

On the FTSE on Wednesday, tobacco stocks were leading the way, with Imperial Tobacco gaining 2.6 per cent to £16.74.

Europe’s largest drug maker GlaxoSmithKline announced their eagerly anticipated half-year results which turned out better than expected, pushing their share value marginally up by 0.3 per cent to 1163.

Commodities fell after a strong run of the last few days, largely due to profit taking.

In the banking sector, profit warnings from US banking groups Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley disappointed investors, contributing to losses on the major US exchanges.

Barclays shares fell by 3 per cent to 300p as investors began to shy from its aggressive push towards financial independence, while the other banks also weakened. Lloyds Banking Group lost 3.1 per cent to 71.2p, while Royal Bank of Scotland dipped 0.1 per cent to 39.8p.

Overall shares in London recovered from early losses on Wednesday. The late recovery was attributed to the surprise announcement that US house prices has risen during May.

The FTSE 100 rose 13.13 points to 4,494.30, while the FTSE 250 continued its steady increase, gaining 42.23 points to 7,784.81.

Early falls in sterling following a press report that two UK banks require additional funding were arrested with the announcement that the Bank of England had decided to maintain its asset purchase programme.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6422
• Pound/Euro 1.1578
• Pound/Japanese Yen 154.0592
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7528

On Wall Street, there was a flat atmosphere on the announcement that Morgan Stanley had made a loss of $159m (£97m) for the second quarter, a significant setback when compared to the $698m profit the Wall Street bank made in the same period of 2008. Not only was it the third consecutive loss for Morgan Stanley, but it was also much worse than analysts had feared.

Morgan Stanley attributed the loss to the heavy cost of repaying government funding and comes after a number of other major US banks reported significant rises in profits.

The poor results at Morgan Stanley caused a knock on effect , with shares in Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley on the decline.

On Wall Street , the Dow Jones dropped by 34.68 points to 8881.26 while the NASDAQ limped forward a mere 10.18 point to close on 1926.28..

Public sector workers in California were out in protest at the billions of dollars of spending cuts that form the basis of the state’s controversial budget deal.

The cuts, including $6billion in education spending, were reached as part of an agreement to reduce California’s record $26.3billion ,( £16bn) deficit.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state’s governor has been forced to write promissory notes to their creditors after running out of money. Public employees have had to take unpaid leave and the state’s credit rating has been slashed to near junk status, giving it the worst rating in the US.

Ahead of the latest US weekly inventories oil prices fell while d gold consolidated below the $950 an ounce level

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Tags: Bank, Banking, Barclays, British Economy, Commodities, Credit Crunch, Currency, Department of Health, Economics, Economy, Financial News, FTSE, GlaxoSmithKline, Hinchingbrooke Hospital, Lloyds, Money, Money Markets, Morgan Stanley, NHS, pub closures, Recession, Ryanair, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, transport and tourism, Treasury, UK Banks, UK hospitals, UK Recession, Wells Fargo