Figures released yesterday confirmed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2009, meaning that the recession is finally over, but later and which much less impact than the US or the Eurozone economies. Britain’s economy had been in recession for eighteen months, the longest period since quarterly figures were first recorded in 1955.

The news was widely anticipated with signs such as last week’s UK unemployment figures that fell for the first time in 18 months.

Analysts now predict that no matter which party wins this year’s election when it happens, the loser will be the pound/ Reasons given are that neither David Cameron or Gordon Brown will be able to muster sufficient support in parliament to control the UK’s budget deficit, which is the largest in the in the Group of 20.

Strategists have pruned back their forecasts on the sterling versus dollar pair by as much as 2 percent this month, to the lowest level since June 2009, with Sterling liable to be weighed down by possibility of the first parliamentary stalemate in more than a generation and growth levels that lag far behind Britain’s rival industrialized economies. Add that to a fiscal shortfall that has ballooned to almost 13 percent of gross domestic product and the picture for the pound looks less than rosy.

Previous precedents do not bode well for the pound, as when the last time a U.K. election failed to produce a clear winner in 1974, Sterling fell in value by 28 percent in the next two years, with the government’s failure to fund its deficit leading to the International Monetary Fund stepping in to bail-out the economy.

The UK’s so-called ‘Big Six’ group of energy suppliers is on course for a profits windfall due to the extremely cold weather conditions experienced in the UK during December and early January. Consumers were forced to turn up their thermostats when the country experienced the coldest weather conditions for decades with the daily demand for gas hitting an all-time high on Jan. 7th of 454 million cubic meters. Analysts predict that accumulative profits for the big six (Centrica, EDF, E.ON, Scottish and Southern Energy, ScottishPower and RWE npower) could easily reach an additional £100 million for the period.

The Chelsea and Yorkshire building societies are expected to finalise details of a merger this week. Doing so will mean the creation of the second biggest society in Britain, after the Nationwide. Yorkshire Building Society members are liable to give their thumbs up for the merger, following the lead of the Chelsea Building Society who gave their support to the deal on Friday. A successful deal would mean the consolidated company would have combined assets of £35 billion pounds, around three million members and 180 branch offices around the UK.

On the news that Barclays plans to defer bonuses for top executives including Chief Executive Officer John Varley for up to three years, stock in the company 4.1 percent, to 271.35 pence.

Pilots at British Airways pilots have been warned by the labor unions representing the cabin crews not to become strike breakers if an employment dispute leads to a work stoppage. News that caused BA’s stock to decline 0.8 percent, to 207.9 pence.

Prudential Plc, the U.K.’s largest insurer have announced plans to cut back expansion in developed markets to focus on growth in developing Asian countries, such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia. Shares in Prudential shares dropped 0.4 percent to 605.5 pence.

Sterling rose slightly against the dollar and the Europe in early week trading. The pound closed at 1.6144 against the dollar, with the Euro being traded at 1.146

Shares in the FTSE 100 took a minor downturn, despite the news that the recession was over in the UK. It closed on Tuesday down 26 points to 5,276.85.

A calmer mood prevailed in markets on Monday and Tuesday after a three day downturn that knocked 5 per cent of its values. Reports coming out of Washington over the weekend suggesting that Ben Bernanke looks like being reappointed chairman of the Federal Reserve for another four-year term settled the markets which had closed at fresh a 15-month high as recently as last Tuesday.

The Dow Jones rose by 84 points, to close at 10255.28, while the NASDAQ recovered 14 points, to finish at 2210.53.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) sales of previously-owned US homes fell 16.7% in December, after having risen in the three months from September to November as first-time buyers took advantage of tax credits. However the decline in December came as no surprise as most buyers had rushed to complete deals before the original 30 November deadline. The first-time buyer tax credit has since been extended until 30 April, causing the NAR to predict that there was likely to be another surge in sales in the spring. December sales fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million from 6.54 million in November, 15% higher than in the comparable period in December 2008.

Computer giant Apple have announced a 50% increase in profits after seeing a bumper Christmas period, with sales of iPhones doubled from a year ago.

Net income rose to $3.38 billion (£2.08 billion) in the three months to 26 December, from the $2.26 billion in the same period in 2008. A spokesman for Apple announced that they had succeeded in selling 8.7 million iPhones in the quarter. Sales of Macs also rose 33%, although iPod sales fell by 8%.

General Motors (GM) has confirmed that Saab is to be eventually acquired by Dutch luxury carmaker Spyker.

GM has been trying to sell Sweden’s Saab since January 2009 although recently they announced that they would begin the procedure of winding down the company while still continuing their search to find a buyer.

Wind-down activities have now been suspended, "pending the close of the transaction".

Saab lost £255 million in 2008, and has not made a profit since 2001.

In the commodities market, gold took advantage of the relative stability in the dollar, to rise to $1,097 an ounce. Oil also rose by 0.5 percent to $74.92 a barrel.

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Tags: Apple, Banking, Barclays, British airways, British Economy, British Pound, Centrica, Chelsea Building Society, Credit Crunch, David Cameron, Dow Jones, E.ON, Economics, Economy, EdF, Federal Reserve, Financial News, FTSE, General Motors, Gordon Brown, International Monetary Fund, iPhone, John Varley, Money, NASDAQ, National Association of Realtors, Nationwide, Prudential Plc, Recession, RWE npower, Saab, Scottish and Southern Energy, ScottishPower, Spyker, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, Yorkshire Building Society

The Nationwide Building Society Nationwide have recently announced that they are to substantially increase the discount on offer for first-time home buyers that participate in the company’s mortgage reservation scheme with the offer applying to three-, four-, and five-year fixed-rate mortgages in the meantime. In addition, the Nationwide are offering a complementary combined reservation and legal fee option to borrowers who are planning to move home. These offers, as well as similar, have been designed to reduce the initial lay outs involved in acquiring a property. A spokesman for the Nationwide is the world’s largest building society and one of the largest mortgage lenders in the UK predicted that with these measures they have removed some of the barriers that may have prevented people from buying a property.

In a bid to satisfy European authorities, the Royal Bank of Scotland may have no option but to either close down or farm out 312 of its branches operating s in England and Wales under the RBS banner and serving more than one million small businesses. The EU competition commissioner, Neelie Kroes appears to be forcing the RBS ’hand as they EU looks for substantial disposals to compensate for billions of pounds of taxpayer support as well as to finance the bank’s involvement in the UK Treasury’s toxic asset insurance scheme. The bank’s proposals to the EU, which are not liable to involve the company’s NatWest branch network in England and Wales, are thought to be in a well advanced state of negotiation.

The Icelandic government have announced that they have reached a fresh agreement with the UK government over the reimbursing the 400,000 savers who lost money when Icesave owner Landsbanki collapsed, leaving debts of around £3 billion. The original ruling was rejected by the UK and Netherlands governments, meaning a new bill will go before Iceland’s parliament for final agreement some time today.

A number of UK based manufacturers are combining efforts to promote the ‘Buy British’ angle in their marketing campaigns. among them are amusement ride manufacturer Amusement Technical, who, among others, want to take full advantage of the low exchange rate between sterling and the Euro to increase their export activities. A spokesman for the company explained that the low value of Sterling created a considerable opportunity for UK manufacturers competing for business in the Eurozone. The obvious downturn is that products and raw materials imported from the same region will be considerably more expensive.

The pound continued to rise in a volatile week’s trading, climbing 0.4% against the euro and 0.2% versus the dollar.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6303
• Pound/Euro 1.10989
• Pound/Japanese Yen 148.2221
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6658

The FTSE 100 fell 32.71 points on 5190.24 on Friday’s trading. The FTSE 250 dropped also shed some of its gains before the weekend, down 58.97 points to close on 9,426.20.

Bank of America have reported net losses of £612 million ($1billion) for the three months from July to September, a figure much worse than analysts predicted. The figure compares with a net profit of $3.2 billion in the second quarter of 2009 and $1.2 billion for the same period of last year. Bank of America is the fourth major US bank to report their third quarter results which are the least impressive so far.

The Dow Jones index took a tumble on Friday’s trading, falling below the 10,000 points mark, achieved during the week’s trading. The index fell 67.03 points to 9995.91 while the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 16.49 points to 2,156.8

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During these troubled times for the property market, the Nationwide Building Society have risen to become the largest U.K. customer-owned lender, and when they talk, people are inclined to listen. Even though the news might be difficult to bear.

In a series of statements issued by the Swindon-based company yesterday, they announced that British economy will remain in recession for the remainder of 2009 and the recovery anticipated to begin next year will at best be “sluggish,” due to unemployment continuing to rise next year. The apparent recovery witnessed on the FTSE and in the financial markets will take a lot longer to filter through to the labour market, according to Nationwide.

In the property sector, building societies, currently account for around twenty percent of the U.K. mortgage market continues to have to cope with defaulting clients. Evidence of the continuing problems this is causing in the industry is the fact that Moody’s Investors Service have recently reduced their ratings on eight customer owned lenders, among them Nationwide.

A spokesman for Nationwide went on to announce that all of these factors are liable to combine to force house prices in the UK down by as much as 14 percent in 2009. This forecast comes despite the fact that price declines have slowed in recent months and U.K. banks granted more mortgages in April than the previous month.

The overall picture is the one that is less encouraging with Nationwide’s net income falling to 162 million pounds in the financial year 2008/2009 from 495 million pounds the previous year. The company’s net lending fell by three hundred percent to 2.1 billion pounds, from 8.9 billion pounds in 2007/2008.

Forecasts are that Nationwide’s mortgage turnover will continue to shrink again this year, despite their acquisition of the Cheshire Building Society and Derbyshire Building Society last year and agreement to take over the deposits and branch management of the Dunfermline Building Society in March 2009.

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Tags: Economy, Financial News, Mortgage, Mortgages, Nationwide, Nationwide Building Society, UK Banks

Banks and buildings societies have silently slashed savings rates over the holidays, with many accounts returning a penny in the pound or 0.1% interest.

Lloyds TSB, Halifax, Abbey, Barclays, Alliance and Leicester, NatWest, Nationwide and Royal Bank of Scotland all reduced their rates on variable interest accounts.

Egg and Yorkshire Building Society have withdrawn fixed rate offers over the holidays.

Savers with £5,000 in a savings account paying 0.1% will pick up £50 interest per year – with £10 income tax deducted at source reducing the pay out to just £40.

“It’s bleak for all savers, and pensioners in particular,” said Ben Yearsley, an investment manager with advisory firm Hargreaves Lansdown. “We’ve reached a point where savings rates are lower than the rate of inflation.”

Individual Savings Account (ISA) rates are down too – as Halifax, Abbey, and Lloyds TSB have reduced cash ISA rates by 1%.

The Bank of England’s monthly interest rate setting meeting later this week is expected to lop at least a further 0.5% of rates, pushing the bank lending rate down to 1.5%, although some pundits believe the rate will follow the US cut to 1% or less.

Waterford Wedgewood goes in to administration

Waterford Wedgwood, the upmarket glassware and china maker, has gone in to administration after failing to secure new funding.

Famous for Waterford Crystal and Royal Doulton, the company has failed to raise up to £200m in fresh capital. Deloitte will be appointed as receiver and administrator.

Waterford Wedgwood employs about 1,000 people at Barlaston, Staffordshire, and 200 people at Waterford, Ireland. Wedgewood has traded for 250 years, but has had profits eroded by cheap imports and is one of the last in a long line of pottery firms to face trading problems in Staffordshire.

Principles, Karen Millen and Oasis cash fears

Fashion chains Oasis, Warehouse, Karen Millen and Principles, all owned by the Mosaic, are in dire straits over cash flow after poor Christmas trading.

Before Christmas, Mosaic made clear how bad the situation was for the group, which operates through more than 2,000 shops employing 13,000 staff. Mosaic is paying interest only on debts of more than £400 million to Icelandic investor Kaupthing. The company fears Kaupthing will call in the loan, giving them a controlling stake.

Kaupthing also has a major stake in Harrods owner and department store chain House of Fraser.

“It is the worst run-up to Christmas we have ever experienced. The likelihood is that there is too little time left for the majority of retailers to make up the shortfall from the past two months,” said a Mosaic spokesman.

Markets

On the first day of trading in the New Year, the FTSE 100 finished up 128.6 at 4561.8 from 4434.2 and in New York, the DOW gained 262.44 points to end the day at 9034.69 from 8772.25.

The pound was steady – up a cent from $1.45 to $1.46 against the US dollar and shifting from 1.032 to 1.047 against the Euro.

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Tags: Abbey, Alliance and Leicester, Bank, Barclays, Halifax, Lloyds TSB, Nationwide, NatWest, Retail, Royal Bank of Scotland, Savings, UK Banks

Property sales are at their lowest level since 1978, according to the latest figures from the Royal Society of Chartered Surveyors.

Estate agents all over the UK reported property sales down for November – with most selling only 10 properties in the three-month period leading up to the survey – that works out at less than one a week..

Most estate agents reported having large numbers of houses for sale on their books – and the good news that 14% more prospective buyers signing up this quarter than last.

Sales were double the rate at the start of 2008, before the credit crunch started to drive prices down due to buyers facing difficulties in raising mortgages.

“Many are starting to see the current market as an opportunity to purchase a previously unaffordable property despite the worsening economic picture,” said RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf.

“Unless people feel relatively confident about their job prospects, they’re unlikely to even try to obtain mortgage finance unless of course trading down or seeking to release capital.”

“Sellers still have to accept the inevitable fact that house prices are falling and re-price their property to suit current market conditions.”

“The rise in interest reflects both the drop in asking prices and recent cuts in interest rates.”

The lowest level of sales in the past three months was in London, with just seven homes per estate agent, followed by Wales and East Anglia.

With sales still slumping there has been a continued downward pressure on prices.

RICS found that 76.5% more of its members had seen prices fall locally than rise, only slightly better than the previous months’ negative balance of 81%.

Both the Nationwide and Halifax, two of the UK’s largest mortgage lenders have also recently reported falling house prices in November. The Nationwide index showed prices down at 0.4% and the Halifax down at 2.6%. The variance is due to different sampling methods.

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Tags: Credit Crunch, Halifax, Jeremy Leaf, Nationwide, Property Markets, Property Prices, RICS

The Great VAT Con comes in to effect today – most people believe that a 2.5% cut in VAT from 17.5% to 15% means a £2.50 drop in prices for every £100 spent at the tills.

Let’s demonstrate the con with some basic maths – £100 plus 17.5% is £117.50.

A 2.5% cut in VAT to 15% is not £100 plus £15 equals £115.

Why not? Because that 2.50% cut only chops £2.10 off the price.

So the great giveaway to encourage extra spending is not so great, and worst of all, the Chancellor Alastair Darling has spun the move to make everyone feel better in a bid to loosen purse strings.

The problem is the Government is following the doctrine of Keynesian economics that put us all in this mess in the first place. The great economist John Maynard Keynes talks about the ‘paradox of thrift’.

Basically this means people stop spending and hang on to their cash in a recession because they want liquid assets handy in case they fall on bad financial luck – as if a recession wasn’t bad enough luck.

This makes the recession worse because businesses can’t sell their products, so output declines even more, making the recession worse. The economy is stuck in an ever-decreasing circle until circumstances allow people to spend again. 

That’s why the Government wants us to spend their way out of recession to counteract the paradox of thrift.

The question is, have they done enough to kick-start the economy or will the whirlpool continue to suck in jobs and businesses? One the whole, it looks like too little.

After a week of more bad news in the High Street, with Woolworth’s and MFI going in to administration and B&Q closing nine trade depot superstores, the John Lewis partnership’s weekly trading report shows a continuing downward trend.

For several weeks running, the report has showed a consistent 13% year-on-year fall in sales.

Other big names teetering on the bring are electronics conglomerate Curry’s and PC World after announcing £15 million losses, Clinton Cards, Land of Leather, and DIY giants Focus and Fads. 

The car industry worldwide is gripped by crisis as all the big carmakers in the US, Japan and Europe undertake cost-cutting exercises. 

The ‘nationalisation’ of the Royal Bank of Scotland completed last week, as the taxpayer now owns just less than 60% of the bank.

On the housing front, Nationwide Building Society released figures showing house prices had fallen only 0.4% in November – a 13.9% year-on-year drop.

The markets were a little more forgiving last week.

The FTSE100 continued a slow recovery from the five-year low of 3665 on October 27 to finish last week at 4288 – a rise of 15% over the month.

Wall Street bounced back from 18.5% from a 12-month low of 7449 the previous week to close at 8229 on Friday.

On the money markets, the Pound strengthened slightly to £1.49 against the US dollar. Against the Euro, the Pound moved slightly from £1.18 to £1.19.

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Bank of Scotland, British Pound, Budget, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nationwide, Tax, Tax Cuts, Tax Payer, Tax Time Bomb, UK Credit Cards, UK economic activity, Uk in recession, UK Recession, VAT

Savers with large amounts of cash on deposit should take action now to protect their money as the credit crunch threatens to sink more banks.

The Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) underwrites a £35,000 per person per bank repayment guarantee in the event of a crisis.

On the face of it, the FSCS pays out if savers have up to £35,000 squirreled away in a savings account – but rules for receiving compensation are not as straightforward as they seem.

Reading the small print reveals the rules actually say that if a saver has up to £35,000 on deposit in any number of accounts at the same bank, only the first £35,000 of the total amount is protected

Those at particular risk are savers with personal, partnership and business accounts with the same banking groups

FSCS is triggered if a bank, building society or credit union cannot settle or is unlikely to settle claims from savers – providing the institution is authorised under a banking licence in the UK.

The problem is many banks are groups operating on one licence, and although savers may feel their money is safe, they are at real risk of losing a lot of money if the banking group collapses.

In the current dog-eat-dog world of banking, a saver may unwittingly have cash outside FSCS due to a take-over or merger, even though they may know about the scheme’s shortcomings and have already taken action to protect their cash.

Here’s a list of the main banks and financial institution groups that operate under umbrella licenses:

· LloydsTSB, The AA, Bank of Scotland, Halifax, Birmingham Midshires, Intelligent Finance, Saga, Cheltenham and Gloucester

· Nationwide, Cheshire and Derbyshire Building Societies

· Barclays and the Woolwich

· Royal Bank of Scotland and Direct Line

· Clydesdale and Yorkshire Bank

· The Post Office and Bank of Ireland

· Co-op and Smile

· Abbey, Cahoot, Alliance and Leicester and Bradford and Bingley savings accounts

Under FSCS rules, if you have more than £35,000 in a single name or joint names in any of these groups, then disperse the money straight away in to sums of less than £35,000 at banks and building societies operating under separate licenses.

Most other big players like HSBC hold individual banking licenses.

Keep an eye on any cash you may have with the Alliance and Leicester – the Abbey recently swallowed the bank and at the moment they are trading on separate licenses, but this may change at short notice.

The FSCS raises money for compensation from a levy paid by member financial institutions.

Chancellor Alistair Darling has hinted that the £35,000 FSCS limit may go up to £50,000 in the near future.

Banks outside the UK

By law, overseas financial institutions should request Financial Services Authority permission before they open for business in the UK.

Many of these firms are not covered by the FSCS and savers should carefully check the firm’s terms and conditions before depositing money, however good the deal may seem.

The Post Office bank looks a good safe bet for savers as trading is under the same licence as the Bank of Ireland. The Irish government has recently announced all Irish banks are covered by a 100% compensation guarantee.

 

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Tags: Abbey, Alliance and Leicester, Bank of Ireland, Bank of Scotland, Barclays, Birmingham Midshires, Bradford and Bingley, Cahoot, Cheltenham and Gloucester, Cheshire, Clydesdale, Co-op, Derbyshire Building Societies, Direct Line, Halifax, Intelligent Finance, LloydsTSB, Nationwide, Recession, Royal Bank of Scotland, Saga, Savings, savings accounts, Smile, The AA, The Post Office, the Woolwich, Yorkshire Bank