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Mandelson argues that Labour should be allowed to stay in power despite losing the election.

May 7th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Exchage Rate, Money Management, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment

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In the first statement coming out of Labour election headquarters, current U.K. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson has put up an argument stating that the sitting government has the constitutional right for the “first go” in trying to remain in power when no party wins a majority in the House of Commons.

“The rules are, if it’s a hung parliament, it’s not the party with the largest number of seats that has the first go, it’s the sitting government,” Mandelson said. “After three terms in office, of course many people have turned away from the Labour Party but they haven’t embraced the Conservatives.” He added

According to a recent survey, manufacturing output and exports in the UK expanded at their fastest rate in 15 years. These findings meant that whichever party eventually wins the right to govern in the UK, are liable to inherit an economy already showing signs of recovery with manufacturing output growing by as much as two percent in the past three months. A growth level that suggests the manufacturing sector will make a significant contribution to second-quarter gross domestic product growth in the UK.

Recent figures also show that the next government are set to inherit a jobs market that, while currently still looking a little weak, looks is poised for recovery but still fragile. Unemployment stands at 2.5 million, or eight percent of the work force, far below the three million-plus predicted last year.

Channel 4 announced the public service broadcaster would boost the budget of its film division by a fifth this year to 10 million pounds. The decision returns Film 4’s budget to its 2007 level before the recession, and partly reflects a cautious confidence at the group. Chief executive David Abraham said the Digital Economy Act had also influenced the decision to increase investment in Film 4. The Act formally stated that as part of its public service remit, Channel 4 should make "high quality films" for cinema release in the UK.

Alliance Boots has replaced Marks & Spencer at the top of an annual ranking of UK companies by the strength of their corporate reputation. Boots, which enters the Reputation Institute’s UK Pulse Report for the first time, ranks first in the survey that measures corporate reputation among the general public. Other companies in the top 10 include Cadbury, Morrisons and Rolls Royce, with John Lewis Partnership, Debenhams, Sainsbury’s and Tesco among the top 20 places. In broadcasting, the BBC came ahead of ITV and BSkyB, and HSBC has become the top-ranked bank. Companies are selected by the organization based on revenue and visibility among the general public, but can decide whether or not to be included. There is no fee for inclusion.

Followers of Google’s UK-based email will now be able to have @gmail.com addresses, rather than @googlemail.com. The news comes after the search engine marketing giant won an arduous trademark battle with a British research company that had applied for the "gmail" name prior to Google launching its email service. After finally reaching a settlement, Google are now able to offer users that registered after 2005, a change to the shorter address of @gmail.com Google went on to use the @googlemail.com address for those that had registered after this time.

A spokesman for Google stated that the company was satisfied with the conclusion of the proceedings, saying:”We know how important email accounts are to users and we wanted to provide the best user experience possible. We engineered the infrastructure to enable users to switch their accounts to @gmail.com accounts should they choose, as well as directing all new users to set up @gmail.com accounts in the UK.”

Power and oil firm Essar Energy were left wishing that they had timed their entry onto the FTSE a little better than this week, after suffering the worst debut of a big London flotation since the early noughties. The group’s shares plummeted 7.2 percent to 389.5 pence on its first day of trading. The fall from the UK’s largest stock market listing in more than two years is the worst seen since HMV, the music retailer, dropped 7.5 percent in May 2002. Essar’s listing came on a challenging day for the markets, with the FTSE 100 index closing down 2.5 percent on the day

The Euro remains under heavy pressure, falling to below 1.27 against the dollar. The pound strengthened took a late slump against the dollar to 1.463 and at 1.550 against the Euro.

International rating agencies continue to voice concerns over the crisis of confidence which is spreading across Europe, with countries such as Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland and Britain looking unstable, as the public and politicians in Athens attempt come to terms with the harsh economic conditions which have come with the EEC and IMF bail-out. The European Commission has said it expects the Greek economy to shrink by 3% this year, amid continued market jitters over the country’s debt crisis.

Banking systems still face "very real, common threats" if doubts were raised about their governments’ abilities to pay debts.

Fears of another round of instability meant another volatile session for the FTSE 100 index, which saw it shed 80.9 points to close in 5261 as the UK also went to the polls, with the prospects of a hung Parliament looking very much a reality.

US mortgage giant Freddie Mac announced a loss of $8 billion (£5.3 billion) for the first three months of 2010. Reports from the company hint that they are liable to ask for a further $10.6 billion in state aid. The firm has made a number of federal cash requests since it was taken over by regulators in September 2008, whilst stating that as the US housing market has not yet fully recovered they would continue to be in need of continued government funding. If the latest request is granted, it will bring the total cost of the Freddie Mac rescue to $61.3 billion.

Stock exchange bosses and regulators were last night scrambling to explain the cause of a plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which took the index down by the largest number of points in its history, setting off a short term panic in an already fragile financial market.

A little over an hour before the close of trading in New York. The result was a period of unprecedented chaos that also dragged in currency and credit markets. At 2.20 pm, EPT the Dow stood at 10,460, already down 400 points, when it suddenly tumbled 600 points with the space of just seven minutes to 9,869, a drop of 9.2 per cent, the largest points fall ever.

The Dow snapped back but continued to swing wildly until the close of trading, when it settled at 10,520.32, down 347.80 points on the day, a fall of 3.2 per cent. The NASDAQ also closed down 82.65 points to 2319.64.

US productivity grew at a better-than -expected annual rate of 3.6% in the first quarter of 2010, while a separate report showed that applications for jobless benefits dropped for a third week in a row.

The US economy has been growing since last summer, but firms have been reluctant to take workers back on, instead pushing smaller workforces to produce more, which has increased productivity – measured as the amount of output per hour of work.

Carmaker BMW has reported a return to profit compared with a year earlier and given an upbeat forecast for sales in the coming year.

The group reported a net profit of €324 million (£277 million) for the first quarter of 2010, compared to a loss of €150 million for the comparative period last year. Turnover was up 8% to €12.4 billion with the company reporting a 100% increase in sales in China as it did a year earlier

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Doubts grow about the strength of UK economy’s recovery.

February 2nd, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks

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While the UK economy snapped back into growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, it did so at a rate considerably less than economists’ forecast. It was thanks to the service industries and manufacturing sector, which expanded just enough to pull Britain out of its longest recession on record. According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by a mere 0.1% from the third quarter. The weakness of the recovery will pose a challenge to Bank of England officials who are due to sit next week to consider week whether the economy is strong enough to begin winding down the Government’s emergency stimulus measures. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’ is regarded as being especially anxious to see and end his government’s propping up of the economy, as delaying it may hamper his efforts to win an election due by June of this year. Much of Brown’s campaigns have been based on promises to curb the budget deficit.

Brown is putting up his case that he is better placed that Conservative leader David Cameron to cut the ballooning budget deficit without hurting the economic recovery. Splits in the Labour Party are beginning to show as election day draws closer with Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling announcing that it would be “absolutely mad” to withdraw stimulus measures now.

The Bank of England’s £200-billion pound asset-purchase facility, designed to keep borrowing costs low and help pull the economy out of the recession also expired this week.

Meanwhile it was announced that the UK economy shrank 4.8% in 2009, making for the biggest annual drop since records began in 1949. It was also reviled that the in the fourth quarter the economy contracted 3.2% compared to records from 2008.

The fourth quarter data, the first to be released by a Group of Seven nation, means Britain is the last member country to exit the recession that was sparked by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The US Government was expected to release GDP data for the fourth quarter on late January 29.

The news that the Lloyds Banking Group has succeeded in placing of £2.5 billion pounds of mortgages with investors, has raised new hopes that securitisation markets are beginning to open for banks. A £4 billion issue last September by Lloyds recorded a first attempt by a bank to tap the securitisation markets since the onset of the credit crisis. However Friday’s issue was the first to cause any form of reaction interest among U.S. investors to purchase prime residential mortgage securities

There are strong signs of recovery popping up London’s financial services industry, which took a severe pounding during the credit crunch. Recruitment is already on the up, and a recent survey showed that more than 80 percent of hiring managers are expecting recruitment volumes to rise in 2010. Only five percent of those responding to the survey named handling redundancies as a key personnel challenge for the year ahead, will close to half of those interviewed pointed to the threat of competitors poaching staff as a problem. The main problem for 2010, according to close to two thirds taking part, would, be salaries and particularly of discretionary bonuses. Remuneration has become a major hot potato in the financial industry, as the sector has emerged from the crisis under increased public and regulatory scrutiny.

Irene Rosenfeld, chief executive of Kraft has predicted that Cadbury has a positive future under the ownership of the US conglomerate, whilst adding fears of job losses at the UK company are "greatly overstated" and.

In her first interview since the takeover was agreed by the Cadbury board earlier this month, Rosenfeld announced that Kraft would not be looking for any mergers and acquisitions activity in the "near term" following the purchase of the UK confectionary company. "We acquired Cadbury because we believe it is a fabulous business and it is our intention to protect those assets," Ms. Rosenfeld pointed out. "It is our intention to invest in the business; in fact, if anything, the opportunities for the business will be greater as a result of the combination than perhaps they might have been on a standalone basis, given some of the competitive pressures." She continued.

Speculation is growing that the planned sale of the discount fashion chain Matalan is unlikely to raise the sum in excess of £1.5 billion pounds targeted by the company’s owner John Hargreaves. American private equity firms TPG, Advent International among others are expected to make offers in time for next Friday’s deadline. Analysts fear that the parties involved are wary of paying too high a price for Matalan. A clause in the deal specifying a "break price" of between £1.2 to £1.25 billion pounds, has been inserted by Hargreaves, entitling him to refuse any bids below this figure

Expectations are that the release of British Airways’ results for the three months to the end of December 2009 will expose further heavy losses at the airline. BA is expected to reveal a loss of £151 million for the third quarter of the financial year, making for total losses up to the end of March to £602 million, up almost fifty percent from 2008, which was BA’s previous record loss. The threat of pre Christmas strikes and severe weather conditions are two factors among many that have contributed to the company’s already poor situation.

Carphone Warehouse subsidiary TalkTalk have announced the launch of a new television and mobile phone service. The launch is yet another sign of the telecoms group desire to step up its challenge to their sector rivals. Charles Dunstone, chief executive of Carphone Warehouse, outlined the plans for the new division on Friday as the company also released details of the demerger of its telecoms and retail interests. TalkTalk, due to gain a stock market listing in March, have identified TV and mobile services as potentially strong sources of growth. Carphone Warehouse’s broadband rivals already offer TV services, and the market is rapidly expanding.

UK Coal’s already stagnating share price was sent even lower as the mining and property group announced that were liable to increase by £100 million pounds in 2009. UK Coal has announced that they expect production in 2010 to be roughly seven million tonnes, compared with 7.9 million tonnes last year. The company faced severe technical and geological problems in its underground mines in the second half of 2008. The troubled company’s shares fell 4.5 pence to 61.5 pence.

The pound posted a weekly advance against the euro after the U.K. economy exited recession in the fourth quarter and Bank of England policymaker. Expectations are that the U.K. currency will continue to gain value as the government’s propping up of the economy may not be extended, with the decision to be announced when the Bank of England meets to decide on interest rates on Feb. 4. Sterling also posted a monthly gain against the Euro, when closing for the weekend at 1.532.

The pound strengthened 1.3 percent in the week, its strongest level in five months. It advanced 2.3 percent in the January. The U.K. currency dropped 0.7 percent to $1.5993 for a monthly decline of 0.8 percent.

The pound rose 8.5 percent against the euro in the first month of 2010, the biggest monthly gain since the single European currency was launched in 1999.

The US economy grew by an annual rate of 5.7% between October and December, official figures have shown.

The number, which is a first estimate, is a big rise from the previous quarter’s growth rate of 2.2%.

It suggests the country’s economy is growing at its fastest pace for six years and confirms the US economy has left its year-long recession behind.

But even with the rebound, gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 2.4% across 2009 as a whole, making for the worst annual performance since 1946.

On the news, the Dow Jones fell again this time by 53.13 points, 135 points, to close on Friday at 10067.33, while the NASDAQ lost another 31 points, to finish for the weekend on 2147.35

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Darling confesses that there may be budget cuts on the way.

January 11th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Exchage Rate, Recession, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK employment

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In an interview held over the weekend, chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling predicted that should the Labour Party be re-elected in this year’s anticipated elections they will be prepared to tightly rein in spending and curb Government borrowing. The treasury chief warned that the UK has little option but reduce the massive budget deficit entailing making the toughest public spending cuts seen in 20 years.

Darling’s comments signaled a change in direction or a possible split in Labour’s election strategy as until recently Gordon Brown’s has pinned the bulk of his preliminary electoral campaign and its possible success on the need to support economic recovery, instead of reducing the country’s current £178-billion-pound deficit. The International Monetary Fund has forecast that the UK’s GDP deficit will peak this year at 13.2 percent.

To the chagrin of many, city bankers look likely to suffer minimal impact from the bonus super tax imposed on them by the government last month.

Most banks who were available for comment hinted they are preparing to absorb if not all at least part of the cost of 50 per cent tax by inflating their bonus pools, and are prepared to run the risk of irritating the government and even their own shareholders in order to keep their staff happy. The banks are unofficially conceding that dividends are likely to be hit by their capitulation, and they are already under pressure as regulators have pressurized banks to increase their capital holdings, which will have a consequent effect on their profit margins.

Meanwhile, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) has written a letter to the remuneration committee chairmen of the UK’s top 350 companies warning boards against paying big bonuses and keeping directors safe from tax increases. ABI are concerned that investors will lose out amid fears that banks will absorb the supertax on bonuses at the expense of dividends. Last year was marked by a number of cases of shareholders rebelling against companies’ plans.

With Christmas trading a fading memory, it has been reported that city analysts are taking a close look at Tesco and attempting to determine how much the extra £100 million pounds’ worth of loyalty vouchers given to customers affected their Christmas trading. Fears are that by Tesco’s inflating their Clubcard loyalty scheme they could have "artificially" inflated their UK sales figures for the period, with estimates that the extra vouchers could have added around 1.5% the supermarket chain’s UK turnover for the Christmas , which is due to be released on Tuesday.

The Crown Estate, owner of the UK’s coastal seabeds, have granted development rights to energy companies that will herald the largest wind energy project ever seen in the world.

The announcement has the potential to see an additional 32 GigaWatts (GW) of clean electricity feeding into the UK grid, on top of 8 GW from previous rounds. 32 GW will mean enough offshore wind energy to supply nearly all the homes in the UK, with projection that investment in UK offshore wind overall could be worth £75 billion and support up to 70,000 jobs by the year 2020.

A total of nine development zones, with a capacity of just over 25 GW, have been allocated to Ten European Companies following a competitive tender.

Plans are currently under approval by the UK Government to construct what will be the fastest railway in Europe. The multi billion pound project would see trains travelling from London to the West Midlands at 250 mph from a new station to be constructed in the capital.

Construction is scheduled to begin in 2017, and the first trains should toll out of London 2025, carrying more than a thousand passengers at a time. The project is expected to cost as much as £60 billion.

Taking a short term view, the UK is currently investigating a variety of options on how to deal with increasing stocks of swine flu vaccines, with the British public showing a lack of interest in taking advantage of the free injection. The department of health is looking at either renegotiating existing contracts with the drug companies, such as GlaxoSmithKline and Baxter International to reduce the consignments. Other last attractive options are to sell the vaccines on to other countries or simply give them away. France and Germany also intend to cancel millions of doses of the H1N1 vaccines because of oversupply.

All of the five UK mobile networks are now reported to be in talks with Google over plans to market their new Nexus One mobile phone. Vodafone are the first operator to officially announce that had sealed a deal to offer the device, while no official launch date has been set as yet. The remaining four UK mobile phone operators. While it is expected that the big four will be providing support and service for the Nexus One, Google will be marketing their new baby exclusively online.

A little reminder that the internet doesn’t yet rule all of the World came with the news that UK greeting cards company Clinton have reported a rise in sales of 3.5 percent on last year for the weeks approaching Christmas, with like-for-like sales in the 22 weeks to Jan. 2 rising. However this upturn in sales appeared to be a drop in the ocean as the company continues to experience difficult trading conditions and has closed 12 of their stores in the last six months.

The pound stuttered slightly above the dollar in pre-weekend trading, while sliding backwards against the Euro.

  • Dollar 1.6025
  • Euro 1.1116

As brokers set off home for the weekend in their snow ploughs and sleds, the FTSE 100 edged just 7.52 points higher to 5,534.24. For the week the index was up 2.4 per cent, making for the third straight weekly gain.

In the US official figures have shown the unemployment rate holding steady at 10% despite the fact that employers unexpectedly cut 85,000 jobs in December. The US Labor Department had initially estimated that 11,000 jobs were cut in November, but now says that the economy had in fact added 4,000 jobs.

Since the recession began in 2007, 7.2 million jobs have been lost in the US, with 4.2 million of them in 2009 alone.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed for the weekend still on the up, eleven points to 10,618 while the NASDAQ also jumped 17 points to close on 2,3170.71.

General Motors (GM) reluctantly advised that they have begun "winding down" process for Saab, whilst continuing efforts to find a buyer for their Swedish car-making subsidiary.

GM intends to organize an "orderly" winding down at Saab, which they expects to take several months. The US group also confirmed that they are continuing to evaluate the several proposals they had received to acquire Saab, including the one from Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone.

With the news that the exports had risen by 17.7% in December, China now claims to have overtaken Germany to become the world’s largest exporter.

December’s remarkable rise ends a 13-month decline in trade as a result of the global downturn.

Total Chinese exports for 2009 were £7.5 trillion, which marked a downturn in foreign of 13.9%, as the global economic downturn led to a fall in demand.

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Brown to ask his colleagues to hang back.

November 18th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

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In the Queen’s speech to be made today, Gordon Brown is expected to emphasize the need for fiscal discipline as the UK seeks to extricate itself from the current financial downturn, and catch up with the rest of the major global economies who have already done so. At the heart of his message will be a very strong hint to ministers to accept budget cuts. What he will be implying is that it is important for the Labour party to show unity and credibility on public spending ahead of the forthcoming election battle with the Tories. The prime minister’s package will feature a fiscal responsibility bill, that will confine to law Brown’s programme significantly reduce Britain’s £175 billion deficit by 2014 and cast it into history by 2018.

Meanwhile the people who are generally regarded as being responsible for the UKs financial quandary, the bankers, are beginning to bleat a little at the prospect of having their bonuses cut by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) This time the banker’s plight is being supported by no less than a former banker, Sir George Mathewson who acted as chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland. Sir George complained that any moves to cancel any pay deals which appear to reward undue risk-taking would interfere with the rule of law.

But Sir George said he feared

According to the Office of National Statistics, UK inflation has jumped to an annual figure of 1.5%, largely driven up by a sharp annual rise in the cost of petrol and a huge jump in the prices of second-hand cars. Economists were not taken by surprise by the increase in the consumer prices index (CPI, which they expected to rise by between 1.4% and 1.5% for October. The incredible 14% rise in second-hand car prices was one of the driving forces behind the inflation rise.

ITV have confirmed that Archie Norman, the former chief executive of supermarket group Asda, will be taking over the role of chairman in their company. Former Tory MP Norman’s appointment brings to an end a seven-month search to find a replacement for outgoing chairman Michael Grade,

Archie Norman comes to the ITV with an impressive track record, having being credited with the turnaround of Asda in the 1990s. He will face no less of a daunting challenge at ITV, where increased competition and difficult trading conditions has caused a major downturn in advertising revenue.

Chocolate makers Hershey and Ferrero are said to considering a joint bid for Cadbury that could be welcomed by the UK confectionery manufacturer as they fight to fend off the hostile takeover by Kraft Foods. Discussions between the two sides have been reported to be at the “very preliminary" stage. Apparently Hershey executives have been more aggressive about pursuing a deal; however no offer has been made. The talks are the strongest sign that a possible rival bid to Kraft’s $16.7 billion offer is in the offing. Kraft’s initial bid was rejected by Cadbury as being “derisory”.

Sterling increased against the major currencies on trading since the weekend

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6793
  • Pound/Euro 1.1283
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 149.9328
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.706

World stocks continue to gain ground as optimism regarding the global economic recovery continuing. UK shares have again reached and broken their 14-month high.

In the UK, the FTSE share values improved as commodities and especially gold touched a new record on the general positive mood.

The UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 index closed up 1.6%, or 86.29, to 5,345.93. The FTSE 250 also rose, up 28 points to 9,401.15.

US Commerce Department figures have shown that retail sales rose by more than expected in October, largely due to the resurgent car market, Sales rose by 1.4%, offsetting September’s 1.5% fall was revised with both months’ figures were dominated by the impact of car sales.

If car sales are taken out of the equation, retail sales rose by just 0.2% in October.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has revealed that the US central bank was monitoring currency markets "closely" and will conduct policy in a way that will "help ensure that the dollar is strong". In one of his rare public comments on the state of the dollar, Bernanke predicted that currency’s recovery would begin to gain momentum despite "headwinds" from credit and unemployment, while inflation was likely to remain "subdued". However the dollar, after a brief upturn, continued to retreat against other major currencies. Bernanke also added that the Fed still expected to keep rates near zero for an "extended period", hastening to add that his statement was, not a commitment.

In the US, all the trading indexes were seen to be advancing at lightning pace.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.3%

Or 52.30 points to 10437.42. The NASDAQ continues to move forward, up 43 points 2203.78

US car giant GM recovery continues. This week the company announced that they will begin returning their US government loans earlier than expected.

The first payment of $1.2 billion will be made in December, and the company predicts that the loans could fully repaid 2011, four years earlier than expected. The news comes as GM reported a third quarter net loss of $1.2 billion. GM currently has debts of $6.7 billion to the US government, $1.4 billion to the Canadian government and 400 million Euros to the German government, which the company received in support of GM’s European subsidiary Opel.

US billionaire Warren Buffett’s investment firm have increased their stakes in the Nestle and Exxon Mobil companies. .

The news has created a strong buzz among investors as stock picks by Buffett always create interest, as the 70 year old super entrepreneur is considered to be one of the world’s shrewdest investors.

Recent figures released by the Japanese government have shown that the country’s economy has grown for a second successive quarter.

The world’s second largest economy grew by 1.2% in the third quarter, much faster than economists had predicted. Analysts have hastened to predict that say overall growth is likely to remain sluggish for the foreseeable future.

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