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Brown and Darling face a dilemma.

December 9th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Recession, The Markets, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

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U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Monday that his government has identified billions of pounds in additional efficiency savings in the public sector to help pare the country’s record deficit. Mr. Brown said the government can deliver £12 billion ($19.7 billion) in efficiency savings over the next four years, an increase on the target £9 billion that the Treasury had identified in April. Brown’s announcement comes ahead of Wednesday’s Pre-Budget Report, which will map out some measures to cut the budget deficit. Among the measures that have been considered is a tax on bankers’ bonuses and even on the banks themselves. However the issue of a windfall tax on banks or bonuses presents Brown and Chancellor Darling with a serious dilemma as they leave no stone unturned to raise cash without damaging the economy’s return to growth. Eroding banks’ profits to raise fiscal income might weaken these institutions just as the government is trying to provide increased more capital behind them to cover lending to Britain’s credit-starved companies.

Manufacturing output in the UK between September and October was unchanged against expectations for a 0.4 per cent increase. UK house prices rose 1.4 per cent month on month in November – stronger than forecast. The two pieces of news appeared to cancel each other out and sterling and gilts seemed little affected.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is expected on Wednesday to announce a cut in taxes on the use of electric vehicles as company cars as part of efforts to present an environmentally friendly pre-budget report. A U.K. treasury spokesman predicted that from 2012, companies and employees would be exempted from paying taxes on company cars if they were electric vehicles.

Shares in UK government majority owned Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc, dropped after Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling refused to rule out a tax on excessive bonus payments. Royal Bank of Scotland retreated 4.7 percent to 33 pence and Lloyds Banking tumbled 4.1 percent to 53.69 pence.

Andrew Bailey, executive director for banking services at the BOE, has stated the bank’s fears that U.K. consumers are hoarding cash due to their lack of confidence in the banking system. Another factor that strengthens the banks theories are the negligible interest that they would earn even if they did invest their money with a financial institution. In a speech made in Washington D.C., Bailey highlighted the ironic connection between the declining need for cash in everyday life and the sharply increasing demand for banknotes during the financial crisis and ensuing recession.

According to a recent report issued by the Engineering Employers Federation, U.K. factory production will begin growing again next year as exports rebound, Production is expected to grow 0.9 percent in 2010 after it had shrunk by 10.4 percent in 2009. The report went on to add that increasing signals point to the fact that the U.K. is emerging from the longest recession on record. The British Chambers of Commerce pointed out that although the recovery has started the Bank of England will probably be required to maintain its bond purchase plan at £200 billion pounds ($331 billion) while it assesses the strength of signs of a rebound.

Shares in travel companies are on the rise, with the Thomas Cook Group and TUI Travel leading the way. Thomas Cook, Europe’s second-biggest tour operator, jumped 1.9 percent to 221.2 pence, while TUI Travel, Europe’s largest tour operator, rose 1.5 percent to 250.5 pence.

Shares in the U.K. waste recycling company Shanks Group Plc surged forward 43 percent to 128.5 pence after the company revealed that they had received a possible bid offer from an unidentified private equity group. Washington-based private equity firm Carlyle Group, have been reported to be in talks to buy the British waste-disposal company Shanks for about £535 million ($875 million) for some time.

Sterling lost ground on Tuesday as disappointing economic data and concerns over the UK government’s pre-Budget report weighed on the currency,

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6292
  • Pound/Euro 1.1040

London equities continued to weaken on Tuesday, with renewed concern about the financial problems in Dubai. Banks especially were hard while talks continued between Dubai World and the creditors to restructure debt at the holding company. It is expected that a group of banks, including the Royal Bank of Scotland, Standard Chartered, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group as well as two from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will form a steering committee to be appointed to represent creditors. At the end of the day’s trading, the FTSE 100 had tumbled 1.5 per cent to close on 5,230.5,

According to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke the US economy is improving, although it is still too early to say that the recovery will last.

Unemployment could stay "elevated", although inflation is likely to remain subdued, while interest rates were likely to stay low for "an extended period",

Following Bernanke’s comments, the dollar lost a lot of the recent gains it had made against the euro.

On close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped 104.82 points to 10,285.292 and the NASDAQ was also down 19,65 points to to 2,169.96

President Obama has said that money not spent under the £425 billion ($700 billion) US bank bail-out package could be used to cut the US deficit and boost jobs. The cost of the "Troubled Asset Relief Program" (Tarp) had turned out to be "much cheaper than expected". Reports say the cost of the Tarp will be £120 billion below the Treasury estimate. Back in August, the Obama administration had estimated that the rescue package would be £200 billion.

Crude oil dropped for a fourth day, trading below $75 a barrel, as the dollar gained amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced that Chinese car sales and production both exceeded 12 million between January and November, with expectations that car sales and output will to top 13 million for the full year.

Production of new cars has never topped the 10 million cars in one year mark in the past with state incentives having boosted car sales. The Chinese government has reiterated their plans to continue economic stimulus measures into 2010, Despite the downturn and falling sales at most global car makers, demand for cars in China continues to boom.

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Personal debt in the UK has reduced for the first time since 1993.

September 4th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Exchage Rate, Mortgages, Recession, Stocks and shares, The Markets, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

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A recent report from the Bank of England has revealed that the total amount of personal debt in the UK is lower than it has been for more than 16 years, and probably even more, as that was when records first began.

Factors such as rising unemployment and the economic downturn have caused UK consumers to become increasingly reluctant to increase their levels of personal debt, indicated by borrowing falling by £600 million in July, taking the total personal debt in the UK to a little below £1.5 trillion. Which is still a considerable sum of money.

At the same time, current low interest rates means that the amount of equity outstanding on mortgages is decreasing by £400 million a month at current levels, meaning that many home-owners are managing to repay more of their outstanding mortgage, reducing their deficit.

The manufacturing sector, also doing their best to draw in their horns, complain of increasing price rises from their banks, despite the abundance of Government packages to increase liquidity in the banking system and interest rates being at an all time low. According to the Engineering Employers Federation (EEF), credit terms remain "very tight" for manufacturers. A fact that they claim could hold back an early recovery from the recession, and certainly not in line with the US, Japan and even France and Germany.

Britain retail sectors, living in hope of a good Christmas season, are going to need it, if recent forecasts are correct. The forecast, from a leading firm of accountants and business advisers, forecast that the worst effects of the recession for the retail sector will not be felt until next year. Fears that rising unemployment will hit the high street hard and as many as 5,000 companies will be forced to close their doors throughout the UK.

Some good news for the UK economy is the announcement that British Petroleum (BP) has discovered a massive oil field while drilling of the Gulf of Mexico.

BP, currently the largest producer of oil and gas in that area, have till now produced more than 400,000 barrels of oil a day, with their latest discovery expected to increase that figure considerably. The company had to dig deep, not just in their pockets, but also through the Earth’s core to get to the fast reservoir of crude, reaching a depth of 35,055 feet making it one of the deepest wells drilled in the World.

On the news, BP shares jumped 3.8% to 538 pence, making it star of the show on the FTSE 100 yesterday.

It wasn’t really a major achievement as equities continued to be under pressure on the FTSE yesterday, however late trading did push it back to a reasonable condition. The k index ended just 2 points lower at 4,817.55, following losses of 89 points during the previous session.

Meanwhile the FTSE 250 continued to slide, yesterday dropping a further 99.75 points to close on 8,519.93

Sterling made a minor recovery against the major currencies on Wednesday’s trading.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6272
  • Pound/Euro 1.1409
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 149.9756
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7249

In the US, once again Federal Reserve policy-makers are showing increased confidence that the downturn in the US economy is due to officially come to an end. At a recent meeting, chaired by recently re-appointed Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke a more upbeat tone emanated, hinged with an uncertainty about how quickly the economy would grow in 2010. Fears remain that unemployment, which is set to move above 10% this year, may impact on consumer behaviour.

On Wall Street, US stocks were up and down on Wednesday affected by the release of data on job losses, with the release of the Challenger jobs report, which showed that the pace of US job losses has slowed, later offset by data released by the

This was quickly counterbalanced by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing (ADP) stating that employers in the private sector had cut by more than 50,000 the jobs expected in July than the expected 250,000.

On Wall Street, the markets returned to relative stability, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 29.93 points to close on 9280.6 while the NASDAQ Composite index stabilised, falling a mere 1.82 points to close on 1967.07

European Union finance ministers have taken up the gauntlet and will press for clearly defined restrictions on bonus pay for bankers in the future. The issue will be at the focus of talks to be held with their US and other G20 counterparts later this month.

Anders Borg, finance minister of Sweden, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, speaking on Wednesday after a meeting of the EU’s 27 finance ministers designed to set out common positions on bankers’ pay as well as the other hot potato of financial market regulation. Other issues on the table will be how to draw back from the fiscal, monetary and other emergency measures adopted this year to prevent a deep global recession, with financial stability returning.

Gold prices surged to a near three-month high on Wednesday as investors turned to the precious metal after a weak opening in equity markets in New York.

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