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Posts Tagged ‘economic recovery’

Myners backs the banks.

January 15th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Energy Prices, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, The Markets, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

City Minister Lord Myners said he recognized the need for state-backed banks to compete in the global market, as he signaled the government would not block them from paying large bonuses to staff. Lord Myners told the Scottish affairs committee on Wednesday it was important the Royal Bank of Scotland was able to recruit and motivate employees. His comments came a day after the bank’s chief executive Stephen Hester revealed recruitment posted its biggest problem as RBS was being forced to compete on bonuses.

The number of businesses that went bust in 2009 increased by 18 per cent, but the economic outlook is slightly brighter for 2010. Recent information shows hat from the middle of 2009 onwards, the rate of business failures started to slow down compared to 2008 and early 2009, with a 7.7 per cent year-on-year decrease. This has to be good news for the economy as a whole. Business failures last year were not as extreme as 2008. The number of firms going bust in the fourth quarter of 2009 increased by almost a quarter compared to 2007, still an improvement on 2008, where the year-on-year increase was almost a third.

U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly stalled for a second month in November, a sign the economy is struggling to shake off the longest recession on record.

Factory output stayed unchanged from October, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted an increase of 0.2 percent, according to the median of 25 forecasts in a recent survey.

Bank of England policy makers last week pledged to spend the rest of their £200-billion bond-purchase program as they tried to cement an economic recovery.

Home Retail Group Plc sank 6.2 percent to 265.8 pence, the biggest decline since September, after a company spokesman announced that growth in the industry will be “hard to come by.”

Meanwhile HMV Group Plc slid 8 percent to 84.4 pence, the sharpest drop since December 2008, after saying holiday sales at stores open at least a year were hurt by the performance of its Waterstone’s bookstore chain.

The pound has been little changed against the dollar on recent days, and traded at 1.6245, up 0.5 percent on the day. The Euro was up to 1.262

The FTSE 100 Index added 24.72, or 0.5 percent, to 5,498.20. The FTSE 100 has extended its surge since March last year to 57 percent after central banks cut interest rates to record lows and governments worldwide committed about $12 trillion to revive the economy

Stateside President Barack Obama has ordered Wall Street banks to repay $117 billion (£72 billion) to taxpayers after criticizing banks for their "massive profits and obscene bonuses" culture. The tax is to recoup money US taxpayers are expected to lose from bailing out the banks during the financial crisis. The move follows populist anger at banks, seen as being responsible for causing the recent economic crisis. President Barack Obama will announce a sweeping new levy on about 50 financial institutions that will raise an estimated $90 billion to reduce the federal debt.

US stocks struggled to push higher on Thursday after an unexpected drop in retail sales gave investors reason for caution.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 0.1 per cent to 10,690.90 and the NASDAQ Composite was also 0.1 per cent higher at 2,310.58.

The market had opened lower after the latest commerce department figures showed retail sales, excluding cars, had fallen 0.2 per cent in December, with analysts forecasting a 0.3 percent increase

According to figures from the US Commerce Department, sales at US retailers saw an unexpected fall in December, casting uncertainty over the recovery of the US economy. Retail sales fell by 0.3% compared with November. Concerns over job security are expected to continue to restrict spending, with unemployment still at 10%. December’s figures end a tough year for US retailers, with total sales for 2009 down 6.2% on the previous year.

On the other hand, the tech industry’s earnings season got off to a flying start on Thursday with Intel reporting demand for its microprocessors boosted fourth-quarter revenues to $10.6 billion, well ahead of analysts’ forecasts of $10.2 billion. The world’s largest chip maker also reported earnings per share a third higher than Wall Street expected, at 40 cents rather than 30 cents.

Compared with a year ago, when orders collapsed in the teeth of the recession, Intel’s profits were 875 per cent higher at $2.3 billion.

Oil prices traded below $80 a barrel on Thursday, consolidating after recent losses triggered by a sharp increase in US crude and oil products inventories The recession has put a dent in future North Sea oil and gas production, with companies tapping fewer new oil reserves in 2009 than in previous years of operations there. Only eight oil and gas fields – expected to produce a combined total of 140 million barrels over their lifetime – began production in 2009, according to industry consultants.

That compares with an average of 600 million barrels of new reserves brought on stream each year between 2004 and 2008.

Production at the North Sea’s old fields has been declining since the start of the last decade increasing UK dependence on foreign oil.

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Brown to ask his colleagues to hang back.

November 18th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

In the Queen’s speech to be made today, Gordon Brown is expected to emphasize the need for fiscal discipline as the UK seeks to extricate itself from the current financial downturn, and catch up with the rest of the major global economies who have already done so. At the heart of his message will be a very strong hint to ministers to accept budget cuts. What he will be implying is that it is important for the Labour party to show unity and credibility on public spending ahead of the forthcoming election battle with the Tories. The prime minister’s package will feature a fiscal responsibility bill, that will confine to law Brown’s programme significantly reduce Britain’s £175 billion deficit by 2014 and cast it into history by 2018.

Meanwhile the people who are generally regarded as being responsible for the UKs financial quandary, the bankers, are beginning to bleat a little at the prospect of having their bonuses cut by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) This time the banker’s plight is being supported by no less than a former banker, Sir George Mathewson who acted as chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland. Sir George complained that any moves to cancel any pay deals which appear to reward undue risk-taking would interfere with the rule of law.

But Sir George said he feared

According to the Office of National Statistics, UK inflation has jumped to an annual figure of 1.5%, largely driven up by a sharp annual rise in the cost of petrol and a huge jump in the prices of second-hand cars. Economists were not taken by surprise by the increase in the consumer prices index (CPI, which they expected to rise by between 1.4% and 1.5% for October. The incredible 14% rise in second-hand car prices was one of the driving forces behind the inflation rise.

ITV have confirmed that Archie Norman, the former chief executive of supermarket group Asda, will be taking over the role of chairman in their company. Former Tory MP Norman’s appointment brings to an end a seven-month search to find a replacement for outgoing chairman Michael Grade,

Archie Norman comes to the ITV with an impressive track record, having being credited with the turnaround of Asda in the 1990s. He will face no less of a daunting challenge at ITV, where increased competition and difficult trading conditions has caused a major downturn in advertising revenue.

Chocolate makers Hershey and Ferrero are said to considering a joint bid for Cadbury that could be welcomed by the UK confectionery manufacturer as they fight to fend off the hostile takeover by Kraft Foods. Discussions between the two sides have been reported to be at the “very preliminary" stage. Apparently Hershey executives have been more aggressive about pursuing a deal; however no offer has been made. The talks are the strongest sign that a possible rival bid to Kraft’s $16.7 billion offer is in the offing. Kraft’s initial bid was rejected by Cadbury as being “derisory”.

Sterling increased against the major currencies on trading since the weekend

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6793
  • Pound/Euro 1.1283
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 149.9328
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.706

World stocks continue to gain ground as optimism regarding the global economic recovery continuing. UK shares have again reached and broken their 14-month high.

In the UK, the FTSE share values improved as commodities and especially gold touched a new record on the general positive mood.

The UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 index closed up 1.6%, or 86.29, to 5,345.93. The FTSE 250 also rose, up 28 points to 9,401.15.

US Commerce Department figures have shown that retail sales rose by more than expected in October, largely due to the resurgent car market, Sales rose by 1.4%, offsetting September’s 1.5% fall was revised with both months’ figures were dominated by the impact of car sales.

If car sales are taken out of the equation, retail sales rose by just 0.2% in October.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has revealed that the US central bank was monitoring currency markets "closely" and will conduct policy in a way that will "help ensure that the dollar is strong". In one of his rare public comments on the state of the dollar, Bernanke predicted that currency’s recovery would begin to gain momentum despite "headwinds" from credit and unemployment, while inflation was likely to remain "subdued". However the dollar, after a brief upturn, continued to retreat against other major currencies. Bernanke also added that the Fed still expected to keep rates near zero for an "extended period", hastening to add that his statement was, not a commitment.

In the US, all the trading indexes were seen to be advancing at lightning pace.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.3%

Or 52.30 points to 10437.42. The NASDAQ continues to move forward, up 43 points 2203.78

US car giant GM recovery continues. This week the company announced that they will begin returning their US government loans earlier than expected.

The first payment of $1.2 billion will be made in December, and the company predicts that the loans could fully repaid 2011, four years earlier than expected. The news comes as GM reported a third quarter net loss of $1.2 billion. GM currently has debts of $6.7 billion to the US government, $1.4 billion to the Canadian government and 400 million Euros to the German government, which the company received in support of GM’s European subsidiary Opel.

US billionaire Warren Buffett’s investment firm have increased their stakes in the Nestle and Exxon Mobil companies. .

The news has created a strong buzz among investors as stock picks by Buffett always create interest, as the 70 year old super entrepreneur is considered to be one of the world’s shrewdest investors.

Recent figures released by the Japanese government have shown that the country’s economy has grown for a second successive quarter.

The world’s second largest economy grew by 1.2% in the third quarter, much faster than economists had predicted. Analysts have hastened to predict that say overall growth is likely to remain sluggish for the foreseeable future.

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IMF orders the BOE to start the presses!

October 6th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Money Management, Recession, UK Banks

financial news

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today gave another green light to the Bank of England (BOE) to print more money. Their agreement to allow the bank to accelerate its electronic money-creation programme came in the light of increased data that the benefits of "quantitative easing" were finally being felt in factories and high streets across the UK.

The IMF took advantage of figures issued denoting a bi-annual assessment of global financial conditions to warn that any sign of restraint of credit risked could effectively derail Britain’s economic recovery.

Currently, the central bank has increased its purchases of assets to £175 billion, and indications are that BOE governor Mervyn King is interested in increasing that figure to £200 billion. However King was outvoted by the majority of his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who preferred to stay with the lower figure, at least for the meantime.

As part of the bigger picture, the majority of UK based economists are of the common opinion that quantitative easing has helped to stabilise the British economy as well as reducing borrowing costs across the economy. Factors that have gone a long way in sparking off an albeit tentative recovery. Overall, commercial bank lending has remained lower than expected, although the general consensus is that quantative easing (QE) was not intended as a means to increase bank lending.

The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report has emphasised that the UK was particularly vulnerable to credit constraints caused by the weakness of bank lending and by the need to finance the government’s rapidly rising deficit.

Over 2009 and 2010, the fund estimates the UK will have a funding gap totaling £430 billion, representing 15% of the country’s GDP. This figure is devastatingly higher than the 2.4% projected for the United States and the 3% for the Eurozone region.

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G8 just became G20.

September 29th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Exchage Rate, Recession, Stocks and shares, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, World Banks

financial news

World leaders announced the Group of 20 nations is replacing the G-8 as the main forum for global economic coordination, reflecting a shift in power from rich countries to emerging markets. The G-8 is not due to be disbanded, instead it will focus on development and security matters. The transfer of influence to the broader group, whose membership ranges from the U.S. to China to Saudi Arabia, symbolizes the fact that the richest industrial nations now lack the sway to govern the world economy alone after their excesses sparked the turmoil that tipped the globe into recession. At the end of a two-day G20 summit, hosted by US President Barack, the world’s leading nations have agreed tough new regulations designed to prevent another global financial crisis. The measures will relate to the amount of money banks have to hold in reserve and to excessive pay for bankers. With a recovery now underway, leaders are trying to temper the excesses that helped trigger the worst financial crisis in seven decades and the deepest recession since World War II. At the same time, richer governments acknowledge they now lack the ability to govern the world economy alone as power shifts to emerging markets such as China.

Before setting of for Pittsburgh, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, announced the appointment of Stephan Wilcke as chief executive of the Asset Protection Agency (APA) The APA has been established to oversee the £585 billion toxic asset insurance scheme, reckoned to be the biggest and perhaps riskiest deal the government has signed:

Wilcke, a former management consultant and private equity boss, will lead a team of up to 50 staff to enforce ensure that Britain’s part-nationalised banks properly manage their impaired loans. Expectations are that Mr. Wilcke’s task will be complicated, not least because the banks have trouble explaining how some of the exotic assets work, due to the fact that many of the officials who agreed the loans left the banks long ago. RBS agreed earlier this year to insure £325 billion of toxic assets while Lloyds aimed to include £260 billion of loans; Lloyds is now trying to raise private capital to limit its participation.

Total business investment in the UK dropped a seasonally adjusted 10.2% sequentially in the second quarter, better than a 10.4% fall estimated previously. Economists expected the decline to be 10.4%. In the first quarter, investments were down a revised 8.9%. In the manufacturing sector, business investments fell 16.2%, faster than a revised 4.6% fall in the first quarter. In the non-manufacturing sector, investments fell 9.5%, more or less the same fall than in the first quarter of 2009. On a yearly basis, business investments fell 21.8%, more than the 18.4% drop that had been estimated, and considerably more than the revised 9.8% fall in the first quarter. Economists expected the decline to remain at 18.4%.

An 18-month high for British Sky Broadcasting helped keep the FTSE 100 steady on Friday, rising 2.4 per cent to 359¾ pence, making them the top blue-chip performer for the week.

Meanwhile, ITV closed 3.5 per cent lower at 44 ¾ pence after refusing to meet the pay demands of prospective chief executive Tony Ball.

JJB Sports, which narrowly avoided administration this year, revealed that first-half losses had almost tripled after problems with stock took a heavy toll on sales and profit margins.

The sportswear retailer struggled to convince suppliers to keep trading with it after breaching its banking covenants last year. The lack of goods in stores saw sales fall 43 per cent to £178.6 million. This translated into a rise in pre-tax losses from £14.8 million to £42.9 million. Shares in the company fell by 2.5 percent to 38.5 pence. .

Shares in 3i Group declined 3.1 percent to 279 pence after the pace of new investments dropped as a lack of debt financing nearly brought the buyout market to a halt. The company have invested £155 million pounds (in the five months through August, compared with the £622 million in the same period of 2008.

British Airways sank 4.3 percent to 220 pence as brokers announced that heir mid-cycle share-price valuations were reached “far earlier than expected.”

Europe’s largest discount airline Ryanair Holdings Plc had their shares slide by 3.4 percent to 3215 pence as the company lowered their estimate for passenger growth while maintaining its earnings forecast.

The FTSE 100 made a minor upward adjustment by an impressive 2.93 points to close on 5,082.20, giving the index a 1.8 per cent decline for the week, while the FTSE 250 continued its free fall on Friday, down 32.58 points to 9060.44.

The pound has hit a four-month low against the dollar, a day after Mervyn King the head of the Bank of England stated this less than welcome opinion that a weak currency was "helpful" to the economy. The pound fell as low as $1.5917, the lowest since early June and then edged back to $1.5939. The pound is still well above the levels hit early in the year when it traded below $1.50 against the dollar. The pound also dropped to a fresh five-month low against the Euro. Another factor hastening the decline in sterling value was renewed fears that interest rates would remain low as G20 leaders announced that their stimulus measures would remain place well into 2010.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.5939
  • Pound/Euro 1.10858
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 143.0041
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.639

Wall Street on Friday made its biggest weekly loss since July after a surprise drop in the sale of durable goods prompted a sell-off in the industrials sector.

New orders for long-lasting goods, from fighter jets to washing machines, fell 2.4 per cent in August, adding to investor concerns over the pace of economic recovery.

Analysts had been expecting a modest rise of 0.4 per cent compared to a 4.8 per cent gain in July, when car sales were boosted by the cash-for-clunkers scheme.

After opening in negative territory, stocks were lifted by data showing consumer confidence was higher than expected this month. Disappointing new home sales soon renewed investors’ concerns and Wall Street gave up its fleeting gains

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to fall going into the weekend down 42.25 points to 9,665.19. The NASDAQ also dropped by 16.69 point to close on 2090.92.

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Bad news for UK pensioners: Your golden years have been suspended until further notice.

September 4th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Daily News, Employment, Loans, Money Management, Mortgages, Pensions, Recession, Saving, UK employment

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Due to a combination of changing UK demographics and the dramatic financial downturn, it now appears that more than two-thirds of the baby boomers of the UK retirees are facing a future that will entail working past what was always the pre-determined retiral age (65 for men and 60 for women). And, the truth be told, no one is too unhappy about it. As the situation appears at the moment, many should-be retirees will either continue to work full or part-time and even some who have officially retired have decided to return to their workplace where, to their considerable surprise, they are being welcomed with open arms.

The reason for this shift is that UK employers are beginning to realize that the country is in the middle of an unprecedented demographic shift, with the numbers of young work age people dwindling, as the older people in the community are living longer and healthier lives and have gathered a life-time experience in the work place; experience which, for many years, might have been needlessly jettisoned. Nowadays, as Britain starts to see the beginning of its economic recovery, they might be sorely needed.

This fact has not gone unnoticed among those who were facing their retirement age with financial worries hanging over their heads, that of decreasing property values and decimated pension funds. The realization that people can now expect to live until at least 75 makes the idea of retiring at 65 seem a little premature. In the Britain of the 21st century people are marrying later and bringing children into the world in their thirties, which means that by the time their children become financially independent, retirement is already coming at them fairly fast, with no real time to accumulate the hundreds of thousands of pounds that they will need to supplement their state pension.

Currently the default retirement age (DRA) is becoming an increasing bone of much contention for workers and employees alike. As a result of pressure, the Government has brought forward to next year a review of the legislation which compels employers to forcibly retire people at the age of 65.

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