Subscribe Feed (RSS)Doubts grow about the strength of UK economy’s recovery.
February 2nd, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks
While the UK economy snapped back into growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, it did so at a rate considerably less than economists’ forecast. It was thanks to the service industries and manufacturing sector, which expanded just enough to pull Britain out of its longest recession on record. According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by a mere 0.1% from the third quarter. The weakness of the recovery will pose a challenge to Bank of England officials who are due to sit next week to consider week whether the economy is strong enough to begin winding down the Government’s emergency stimulus measures. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’ is regarded as being especially anxious to see and end his government’s propping up of the economy, as delaying it may hamper his efforts to win an election due by June of this year. Much of Brown’s campaigns have been based on promises to curb the budget deficit.
Brown is putting up his case that he is better placed that Conservative leader David Cameron to cut the ballooning budget deficit without hurting the economic recovery. Splits in the Labour Party are beginning to show as election day draws closer with Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling announcing that it would be “absolutely mad” to withdraw stimulus measures now.
The Bank of England’s £200-billion pound asset-purchase facility, designed to keep borrowing costs low and help pull the economy out of the recession also expired this week.
Meanwhile it was announced that the UK economy shrank 4.8% in 2009, making for the biggest annual drop since records began in 1949. It was also reviled that the in the fourth quarter the economy contracted 3.2% compared to records from 2008.
The fourth quarter data, the first to be released by a Group of Seven nation, means Britain is the last member country to exit the recession that was sparked by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The US Government was expected to release GDP data for the fourth quarter on late January 29.
The news that the Lloyds Banking Group has succeeded in placing of £2.5 billion pounds of mortgages with investors, has raised new hopes that securitisation markets are beginning to open for banks. A £4 billion issue last September by Lloyds recorded a first attempt by a bank to tap the securitisation markets since the onset of the credit crisis. However Friday’s issue was the first to cause any form of reaction interest among U.S. investors to purchase prime residential mortgage securities
There are strong signs of recovery popping up London’s financial services industry, which took a severe pounding during the credit crunch. Recruitment is already on the up, and a recent survey showed that more than 80 percent of hiring managers are expecting recruitment volumes to rise in 2010. Only five percent of those responding to the survey named handling redundancies as a key personnel challenge for the year ahead, will close to half of those interviewed pointed to the threat of competitors poaching staff as a problem. The main problem for 2010, according to close to two thirds taking part, would, be salaries and particularly of discretionary bonuses. Remuneration has become a major hot potato in the financial industry, as the sector has emerged from the crisis under increased public and regulatory scrutiny.
Irene Rosenfeld, chief executive of Kraft has predicted that Cadbury has a positive future under the ownership of the US conglomerate, whilst adding fears of job losses at the UK company are "greatly overstated" and.
In her first interview since the takeover was agreed by the Cadbury board earlier this month, Rosenfeld announced that Kraft would not be looking for any mergers and acquisitions activity in the "near term" following the purchase of the UK confectionary company. "We acquired Cadbury because we believe it is a fabulous business and it is our intention to protect those assets," Ms. Rosenfeld pointed out. "It is our intention to invest in the business; in fact, if anything, the opportunities for the business will be greater as a result of the combination than perhaps they might have been on a standalone basis, given some of the competitive pressures." She continued.
Speculation is growing that the planned sale of the discount fashion chain Matalan is unlikely to raise the sum in excess of £1.5 billion pounds targeted by the company’s owner John Hargreaves. American private equity firms TPG, Advent International among others are expected to make offers in time for next Friday’s deadline. Analysts fear that the parties involved are wary of paying too high a price for Matalan. A clause in the deal specifying a "break price" of between £1.2 to £1.25 billion pounds, has been inserted by Hargreaves, entitling him to refuse any bids below this figure
Expectations are that the release of British Airways’ results for the three months to the end of December 2009 will expose further heavy losses at the airline. BA is expected to reveal a loss of £151 million for the third quarter of the financial year, making for total losses up to the end of March to £602 million, up almost fifty percent from 2008, which was BA’s previous record loss. The threat of pre Christmas strikes and severe weather conditions are two factors among many that have contributed to the company’s already poor situation.
Carphone Warehouse subsidiary TalkTalk have announced the launch of a new television and mobile phone service. The launch is yet another sign of the telecoms group desire to step up its challenge to their sector rivals. Charles Dunstone, chief executive of Carphone Warehouse, outlined the plans for the new division on Friday as the company also released details of the demerger of its telecoms and retail interests. TalkTalk, due to gain a stock market listing in March, have identified TV and mobile services as potentially strong sources of growth. Carphone Warehouse’s broadband rivals already offer TV services, and the market is rapidly expanding.
UK Coal’s already stagnating share price was sent even lower as the mining and property group announced that were liable to increase by £100 million pounds in 2009. UK Coal has announced that they expect production in 2010 to be roughly seven million tonnes, compared with 7.9 million tonnes last year. The company faced severe technical and geological problems in its underground mines in the second half of 2008. The troubled company’s shares fell 4.5 pence to 61.5 pence.
The pound posted a weekly advance against the euro after the U.K. economy exited recession in the fourth quarter and Bank of England policymaker. Expectations are that the U.K. currency will continue to gain value as the government’s propping up of the economy may not be extended, with the decision to be announced when the Bank of England meets to decide on interest rates on Feb. 4. Sterling also posted a monthly gain against the Euro, when closing for the weekend at 1.532.
The pound strengthened 1.3 percent in the week, its strongest level in five months. It advanced 2.3 percent in the January. The U.K. currency dropped 0.7 percent to $1.5993 for a monthly decline of 0.8 percent.
The pound rose 8.5 percent against the euro in the first month of 2010, the biggest monthly gain since the single European currency was launched in 1999.
The US economy grew by an annual rate of 5.7% between October and December, official figures have shown.
The number, which is a first estimate, is a big rise from the previous quarter’s growth rate of 2.2%.
It suggests the country’s economy is growing at its fastest pace for six years and confirms the US economy has left its year-long recession behind.
But even with the rebound, gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 2.4% across 2009 as a whole, making for the worst annual performance since 1946.
On the news, the Dow Jones fell again this time by 53.13 points, 135 points, to close on Friday at 10067.33, while the NASDAQ lost another 31 points, to finish for the weekend on 2147.35
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Imagine the scenario of a sleek, gazelle like David Cameron lies in wait to attack the lumbering elk bearing a strong resemblance to Gordon Brown as he slowly ambles his way down to the watering hole, as he has done for the past twelve years, seemingly unaware of any impending danger. This is scenario being played out at the moment , and will go on all through the summer before the autumn party conferences set the manifestos for the eagerly anticipated general election.
