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House prices to rise in 2010, but not by much.

December 23rd, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Exchage Rate, Mortgages, Recession, Retail, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

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The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has predicted that house prices are unlikely to rise by much more than one to two percent in 2010. The nation’s chief surveyors’ body did however raise the possibility that more properties would change hands in 2010. In their report, RICS pointed out that the housing market had come through the past year in better shape than many had predicted but said it believed several factors would limit price rises.

According to figures issued by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), the UK economy shrank by 0.2% between July and September, which is less than the previous estimate of a 0.3% contraction. While the news confirms that the country is not yet out of the recession, it does add weight to predictions that fourth quarter figures will show the economy is finally returning to growth.

The UK recession, which began in the second quarter of 2008, has seen the UK economy contract by 6%. Meanwhile the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has forecast that in 2010 recovery for the UK economy will be at best ‘fragile’. The CBI confirmed that the UK economy was likely to come out of recession in the fourth quarter this year, driven by increased spending from consumers looking to buy before the January VAT increase. However, they went on to warn that economic growth would be weak, at around 0.3%, for the first two quarters of 2010, with wage freezes continuing into spring and job losses until the autumn

Lehman Brothers, one of the first major investment banks to collapse during the current financial downturn are back to their old ways, is hiring new staff on fat salary/bonus packages as well as paying generous bonuses in London to existing staff, to stop them from defecting. The bank is reportedly recruiting middle and back office staff in order that their administrators PwC can wade through the millions of transactions that must be reconciled with clients and trading partners to determine what is owed or can be claimed. Meanwhile the judge overseeing Lehman’s US bankruptcy in New York last week approved an extra $50 million (£30 million) in bonus pay-outs to some 230 derivatives traders working to help to untangle the dead bank’s $10 billion portfolio. The bonus pay-outs come as bankers face anger and derision over probable bonuses at the end of this year.

British Telecom (BT) are reported to by pushing forward the launch of its super fast broadband network to make sure that the infrastructure is completed in time for the 2012 Olympic Games in London. Britain’s broadband speeds lag behind those of many industrialized countries and BT is under pressure to fix the problem. The company is planning to spend £1.5 billion on a new broadband network based on optical fiber, but it will run past only 40 per cent of homes, mainly in towns and cities. BT originally pronounced that it could take until March 2013 to build the urban-focused network, but, following successful trials, it now appears that the project will be completed by June 2012, with the Olympics beginning the following month. When it does get going, the new network is designed to increase broadband download speeds 10-fold, to about 40 megabits per second, to cope with the rise of bandwidth-hungry services such as high-definition video.

BAA has won its appeal against the Competition Commission but remains unsure whether the judgment means the company will have to sell airports in London and Scotland. In March of this year, the UK’s largest airport operator was ordered to sell three of its seven airports: Gatwick, Stansted and either Glasgow or Edinburgh. The company won their appeal on a number of arguments, one of them that a decline in passenger numbers should have been considered in the decision

The Competition Commission (CC) has finally cleared the merger of ticket agent Ticketmaster and concert promoter Live Nation. The UK regulator has confirmed that the merger would "not result in a substantial lessening of competition in the market" in the UK.

CC’s decision marks a reversal from their provisional ruling, where they vetoed the merger, stating that they were concerned about its ramifications.

The US Justice Department is also investigating the proposed merger, which was originally closed in February.

According to a new poll by the Auto Trader magazine, the Ford Focus has been voted the UK’s most popular car of the decade. The small family car beat our sports cars, SUVs and city cars to take first place. Despite the company being rocked by financial issues in the past ten years, Ford has retained its place as an iconic motoring brand, with two of its other models, the Fiesta and Mondeo, ranking high in the list of most loved cars by the British public. The Auto Trader poll, designed to analyse the key motoring trends over the past ten years, also looked at categories including ‘greenest’ car and ‘best value for money’ car.

Sterling was seen to be weakening in mid week trading against the dollar and the Euro.

  • Dollar 1.5956
  • Euro 1.111922

On the FTSE house builders edged higher after analysts announced that the sector valuation was looking brighter after a period of under performance that left them trading below book value. Forecasts are that UK house prices are to fall by 5 to 10 per cent as unemployment peaks in the second quarter of 2010, and saw rising interest rates damping the recovery for the next two years. Despite the less than encouraging forecasts, Taylor Wimpey was up 4 percent to 35¾ pence while Barratt rose 1.7 per cent to 116 pence. However, Redrow fell 0.2 per cent to 131½ pence.

The FTSE 100 gained for a second day, adding 34.67 points to close on 5,328.66, just 54 points off its 2009 high.

Official figures show that the US economy grew by less than originally estimated in the third quarter, with the latest estimate showing an annual growth pace of 2.2%, the figure was down from the previous estimate of 2.8%. In any case, July- September was the first quarter in which the US economy returned to growth, after four quarters of decline.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8 per cent to 10,414.14 while the Nasdaq Composite was 1.2 per cent higher at 2,237.66, a welcome recovery after losses last week as the dollar strengthened and concern grew over the prospect of a tighter monetary policy.

A report issued by the National Association of Realtors (NAOR) showed new home sales in the US rose 7.4% in November, apparently spurred on by government incentives. NAOR also announced that property sales rose in the month to an annual rate of 6.5 million, making for the highest level in more than two years.

On Tuesday the OPEC oil cartel provided its strongest indication yet that it aims to keep oil prices at $70-$80 a barrel next year as it tries to support the economic recovery. As a first step, the cartel, which controls more than 40 per cent of the world’s oil output, agreed to leave its production levels unchanged at least until the end of the first quarter of 2010.

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Pot calling the kettle black as the FSA seeks bail out

August 5th, 2009 by admin | 0 Comments | Filed in Energy Prices, Recession, Retail, The Markets, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, conspiracy theory, savings accounts

financial newsAccording to their recently released annual report, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) Britain’s financial regulator, whose role in life is to supervise UK banks and help them to reduce debt; themselves have shown a deficit of £23 million pounds for the year.

In order to ease cash flow problems, the FSA have had to take up £100 million-pound loan from Lloyds Banking Group Plc As the FSA raises its revenue through fees that financial-services companies must pay to be regulated, and this latest bombshell is bound to mean some moments of discomfort for them. The agency announced that they will be raising their fees for the coming financial year to cover unexpected overheads.

Pension scheme burdens at U.K. banks HSBC and Barclays are reported to have increased dramatically during the first half of the year, largely due to an ongoing collapse in corporate bond yields. The deficit in HSBC’s main U.K. pension scheme was reported to have increased almost ten-fold from $392 million at the turn of the year to $3.9 billion at June 30.

It was announced on Tuesday that Australia’s ANZ have agreed to buy part of Royal Bank of Scotland’s Asian banking assets for $550 million. ANZ will be acquiring RBS units in Taiwan, Singapore, and Indonesia as well as in Hong Kong, the Philippines and Vietnam. The sale goes through as RBS continue in their drive to curtail their international activities after posting the biggest loss in UK history last year.

It was announced that nearly 75 percent of British shoppers now choose supermarket own labels, compared to only 25 percent a year ago. According to a recent survey, the rise was attributed supermarkets increasingly expanding their own ranges as well as cost-conscious consumers arriving at the conclusion that the fact that own brand ranges despite being cheaper do not fall for the quality of the “brand” products. In response, certain some private label brands such as Heinz, and Reckitt Benckiser (recently reported resurgence in demand for their branded products

Data centre provider Telecity announced an outstanding increase of pre-tax profits of 80 per cent for the first half of 2009 as their expansion program continues.
In the six months to June 30, revenue increased 33 per cent to £82.2 million, Telecity, are halfway through a three-year new-build programme that will almost double in its capacity, measured in megawatts of power available to customers.

The company announced that internet usage continues to grow, maintaining demand among Telecity’s customers, including technology services companies such as Hewlett-Packard as well as large telecommunications groups such as BT and AT&T.

Aerospace and defence stocks were under pressure on Tuesday as the FTSE 100 slipped from its 2009 high.

Defence contractor Qinetiq dropped 4.7 per cent to 135 pence after their interim trading statement reiterated profit would be weighted towards the second half due to US defence budget delays. Also shares in Rolls-Royce were down 1.8 per cent to 412 pence after brokers announced that the decline in demand for the company’s products would continue for several years.

Standard Chartered was the sharpest faller in the insurance sector, losing 7.5 per cent to 1328 pence after launching a surprise share issue to raise £1 billion in a drive to fund growth. Legal & General saw their shares down 4.8 per cent to 62 pence after their first-half operating profit were lower than market expectations due to investment losses as well as damped speculation that it might sell its asset management arm.

Pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline closed 0.1 per cent weaker at 1147½ pence after it was once again mooted as a potential bidder for Allergan, the Californian maker of breast implants and Botox.

After the announcement that they had struck oil in Uganda, shares in Tullow Oil outperformed a weak commodity sector, rising 2.6 per cent to 1021 pence.

Dana Petroleum was down 1.3 per cent to 1402 pence after Tethys Oil, its partner in Morocco, said it had plugged an exploration well after gas levels proved non-commercial.

Weakness among the banks and insurers led the FTSE 100 to close down 0.2 per cent, fading 11.09 points to 4,671.37.

Meanwhile the FTSE 250 continued to make considerable gains, climbing a further 84.4 points to close on 8,242.51

The pound has continued to gain against the dollar, rising as high as $1.7005 before falling back to $1.6938.

Pound/US dollar 1.6938
Pound/Euro 1.1763
Pound/Japanese Yen 160.6581
Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7985

US consumer spending climbed for the second consecutive month in June, despite growing unemployment and falling personal income.
Spending rose 0.4%, ahead of analysts’ estimates against 0.1% in May with rising food and fuel costs blamed.
Personal income fell 1.3% from the previous month – which had seen one-off stimulus payments from the government.
Consumer spending makes up about 70% of economic activity in the US.

Yesterday on Wall Street, the Dow Jones continued to climb up 33.63 points to 9320.19. The NASDAQ also crept up a little, 2.7 points to close on 2011.31.

The US House of Representatives has caused no little amount of consternation through inserting an amendment into their $33 billion spending bill that disallow any government money being spent on cars other than those made by the US “Big Three”, car manufacturing concerns. The proposed amendment has created considerable alarm from US trading partners in Europe and Japan, sparking claims of protectionism. A flurry of behind-the-scenes lobbying activity to make sure that the amendment is removed when the House bill is merged with a Senate version after Congress’s summer recess is already expected.

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FTSE hopping as half year results flow in.

July 31st, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, The Markets, UK Banks, UK Credit cards, UK employment, World Banks

financial news

The FTSE was at the centre of UK financial news with many of its major companies announcing or about to announce their half year results. Which till now have been mostly encouraging.

The UK companies owned by Spanish bank Santander saw their profits rise by a third in the first half of the year as bad debts showed a second consecutive quarterly decline.

Santander announced that their bad debt provisions in its UK business were £176 million pounds in the second quarter, up from £92 million pounds a year ago but still considerably less than the £189 million in the first quarter of this year. The first-half provision of £365 million pounds doubled from a year ago.

Most of the UK banks are expected to report a jump in bad debts when they report next week, while analysts and investors as one are looking for clues as to whether the levels of bad debt have been arrested

UK Profits for Santander, taking in includes Abbey, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley were £790 million in the six months to the end of June, helping the bank’s Spanish parent to a net profit of 4.5 billion Euros, down 5 percent on the year but ahead of forecasts.

British Airways has reported a pre-tax loss of £148 million in the three months to the end of June, compared with a profit of £37 million in the same period last year, with revenues falling l 12.2% to £1.983 billion for the quarter.

Also falling deep into the red were German airline Lufthansa, Europe’s largest measured by turnover, who reported to a net loss of €216 million from a net profit of €381 million a year ago.

Leading airline chief executives have told the European Commission the industry on the ground as well as in the air is facing “the worst economic conditions on record”.

Meanwhile British Airports Authority (BAA) continue to make every effort to offload Gatwick Airport, but not at any price.

This example of possibly false bravado came as the UK’s largest airports operator revealed interim pre-tax losses for the six months to June 30 widened to £545.7 million from £135. 3 million

On one of the busiest results days of the year eight FTSE 100 companies released their half year results on Thursday including the BT Group which announced first-quarter adjusted earnings of £1.37 billion, larger than the £1.27 billion originally forecasted.

Pay TV operator BSkyB announced year end profits of £456 million an increase of £60 million. Company revenue rose by 8.2 per cent to £5.4 billion. BSkyB announced that during the last quarter It added a further 124,000 subscription holders.

Also rising was the FTSE 100, up 84 points to 4,631.6 and only seven points from away from its year high. The index has gained 9 per cent so far this month and is looking good to overtake its best monthly gain, reached in September 1992.

The FTSE 250 leapt forward 172.04 points to close on 7,934.63

Sterling was among the best performing of the major currencies against a generally weaker dollar, as rallying equity markets and better-than-expected housing data drove appetite for risk

Pound/US dollar 1.6516

Pound/Euro 1.1695

Pound/Japanese Yen 157.3943

Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7916

According to a prominent US financial regulator, the Obama administration’s plan to give US states more power to protect consumers from unfair banking practices would make it more difficult and costly for large lenders to operate across the country.

The regulator, Mr. John Dugan, head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, who job it is to oversee national banks as comptroller of the currency, announced recently that the proposals to create a federal consumer protection agency and give states more leeway to crack down on unfair practices would have negative “ramifications for companies operating across state lines”.

On Wall Street the Dow Jones made a strong recovery on Thursday’s trading, up 83.74 to 9154.46 The NASDAQ also rose by 16.54 points to 1984.3

Japanese industrial output rose in June for its fourth straight month and it appears that they will be no looking back as electronics manufacturers, steel makers and chemical producers begin to climb back to full production…

Preliminary data has shown that in June industrial production was up 2.4 per cent from May, less than half the revised 5.7 per cent growth recorded the previous month but broadly in line with economists’ expectations.

However despite encouraging growth over the last quarter, production in June was still down 23 per cent compared with the same month of 2008.

A spokesman for Arcelor Mittal, has predicted that world steel demand will pick up by at least 10% next year, as emerging economies were coming out of the downturn “reasonably quickly” and that stimulus spending in the US and Europe was having an impact. Arcelor Mittal reported a second quarter net loss of $792 million, against a $5.8 billion net profit a year ago, causing their shares to fall 4.4% to €24.20.

Two of the world’s largest oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell, have announced major profit setbacks in the wake of tumbling international oil prices and weaker demand.

Exxon, the largest US oil group, and Shell, the biggest in Europe, on Thursday unveiled post-tax profits for the second quarter that were roughly a third of those a year ago, with both companies attributing the blame to the continuing global economic crisis and softer demand for the collapse in their revenues..

Exxon’s profits dropped by two thirds $3.95 billion, the steepest fall in profits for more than a decade, and Shell’s 70 per cent decline in post-tax profit to $3.24 billion.

On the day US light crude was up $3.66, or almost 6%, to $67.01 a barrel, while London Brent was ahead by $3.68, at $70.21.

US light crude slumped $3.88 on Wednesday after figures showed a rise in US oil stockpiles, indicating too much supply in relation to demand

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Land price increases reported throughout the UK

July 20th, 2009 by admin | 0 Comments | Filed in Daily News, Money Management, Mortgages, Recession, The Markets, UK Banks

money infoAccording to a recent survey, over the three months to the end of June the average price of residential building land outside of London increased by 2.1 per cent, compared with the first quarter and making for the first rise since 2007. With the notable exception the UK capital, London, land values increased in every region of the country during the quarter. The report points out that the signs are that property developers and builders were slowly but surely regrouping as they become more confident g for the future. Property developers: Taylor Wimpey, Redrow, and Barratt have all indicated they are likely to be net buyers of land this year.

Just as it started to rain, the summer sales have begun in the high streets of the UK, almost a fortnight earlier than 2008. The UK public, always on the look out for a bargain, will find that there are plenty around, with discounts and deals that are indicative of the times that we live in, as retailers fall over themselves to do whatever business that they can to survive the biting winter of recession.

One company that won’t be around to see the spring, or at least in their current format, is allied carpets. The company, long since a feature of the UK high street, has been placed into administration, and their160 plus stores are now up for sale. The administrator, BDO Stoy Hayward are in the process of establishing what is known in the trade as a “pre-pack administration”. This means that 51 of the company’s stores have been already sold to Allied Carpets Retail, a new company that has risen from the ashes of Allied’, whilst they were still exceedingly hot.

Roger Jenkins, a top Barclay’s executive who was reported to have been instrumental in aiding the bank to secure billions of pounds in overseas funding is reported to be set to leave the bank, reportedly to set up his own consultancy firm. Jenkins was generally regarded as being one of the highest paid staff, with a salary reputedly running into the tens of millions. Whilst Jenkins’s sterling efforts may well have prevented Barclays from requiring a government handout, the salary that he received for his efforts may well have caused him to fall into the category of bankers that a recent government report recommended should be subject to stricter controls as far as pay at the UK’s financial institutions.
Mr. Jenkins is expected to continue as an advisor to Barclays, where his income is likely to be less under scrutiny.

On another good day for investors British Airways, while reporting a first-quarter operating loss of around 100 million pounds had their shares rally by three percent to 136.1 pence. The rise was largely due to the announcement that the carrier intends to raise new funding as the recession hurts revenue and drains cash reserves.

BA pension plan trustees rallied to the cause by announcing that they have so agreed to release some bank guarantees that will help the airline to open up an additional credit line of around £320 million.

Commodities also did will on Friday with shares in Xstrata, the world’s fourth-largest copper producer, climbing 4.3 percent to 691.9 pence. India’s largest copper producer Vedanta Resources Plc also saw an increase 4.2 percent in their share value to 1,502 pence. The largest copper mining company in Kazakhstan, Kazakhmys Plc, gained 1.6 percent to close on 685.5 pence.

Shares in the U.K.’s largest phone company BT Group advanced 3.2 percent to 110.2 pence after analysts announced that the company’s profit expectations had fallen to an unrealistic low, and the company was looking more and more as a stable long term investment.

Also gaining momentum on the FTSE were Cable & Wireless Plc U.K.’s second-biggest phone company whose shares rallied 3.1 pence to 133.4. On predictions that their global revenue will grow by over 30 percent this year, even though the company is feeling some pressure from falling tourist numbers in its Caribbean operations. The company also said it will cut more costs to safeguard profitability.

The U.K.’s third-largest natural-gas producer BG Group was also on the up and up as news began to spread that the company was sitting on a rich seam of “an outstanding pipeline of new projects”

U.K. stocks gained for a fifth day, extending the FTSE 100 Index’s steepest weekly advance since January, closing on Friday up a further 26.91 points to 4688.75. The FTSE 250 made on Thursday’s minor fall to climb 26.91 points to close on 7,580.66, making for not a bad week.

The yen and the dollar suffered this week as better-than-expected US corporate earnings and improving economic data boosted investor confidence.

Pound/US dollar 1.6336
Pound/Euro 1.1586
Pound/Japanese Yen 153.9624
Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7577

On Wall Street Citigroup recorded a $4.4 billion profit for their second quarter, largely due to one-off input of $6.7 billion from their partial sell off of their brokerage division. Excluding the gain from the sale, a majority stake in its Smith Barney unit to Morgan Stanley, Citi recorded an operating loss of about 27 cents per share. As part of its latest bail-out, the bank is about to cede a 34 percent stake to the US government.

Forecast-beating second-quarter earnings figures, especially from bankers Goldman Sachs, and Intel the chip maker prompted a sharp rally in global equities. On Friday, the Dow Jones continued to rise, on the day by 32.12 points to 8743.94 while the NASDAQ also climbed but by very little, closing up 1.58 points to 1886.51. According to official figures, the construction of new homes in the US between May and June rose by 3.6%, their highest level in seven months. Following a post-war low in April, May’s rise makes for the second month in a row that housing starts have raised. The number of single family homes being built jumped 14.4% in June, the largest increase for over four years.

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BT phones hone business

May 14th, 2009 by admin | 0 Comments | Filed in Daily News, Recession, Retail, UK Small Business

An announcement from British Telecom (BT) that it would be cutting 15,000 jobs as well as reducing their final dividend payout to just six and a half pence per share caused no little upset yesterday, The company’s management team insisted that they had no option after their IT services division had a disastrous year. The dividend for 2008/9 was close to 60 percent less than the previous financial year.

According to the Pensions Regulator U.K. companies will be given some breathing space to repair their pension deficits over the long term, a move that will be warmly welcomed in the hard pressed business sector. This concession will allow companies to reduce their annual pension payment, relieving cash flow pressures. The fall in stock values, which thankfully is declining, has meant that billions in pounds of asset values have decreased, meaning companies that many companies have been faced with the prospect of dipping into cash reserves to meet pension commitments.

UK insurance giant Legal & General announced a rise in sales for the first-quarter, apparently aided by an increase in sales of pension schemes. L & G seemed optimistic that the worst of the financial crisis appeared to be behind them, whilst adding that 2009 could still be very difficult. In their first-quarter trading update published Wednesday, Legal & General announced that global sales had risen by three percent to 382 million pounds from 372 million a year ago, coming from a six percent increase in sales of savings products at its UK business and a 32 percent jump in overseas sales, and curtailed by a ten percent drop in sales from its UK Risk business.

The world’s sixth-biggest steel maker in terms of production capacity, Tata Steel Ltd., announced in the last few days their intention to request from their UK bankers reset the debt terms on the loan that the company took to purchase the Anglo-Dutch steel producer Corus Group PLC.

On the flight path, it was announced that a consortium led by Citi Infrastructure Investors have been removed from the list of final bidders take over London Gatwick, the UK’s second largest airport, as their bid was found to be too low.

The consortium, Lysander Gatwick Investment, made a bid of about £1.18billion to acquire the airport. It is unsure whether they will submit a better offer.
Meanwhile, the UK’s largest property company, Land Securities, have added weight their repeated warnings that a recovery in the battered real estate sector are premature. They hit their point home by revealing that their property portfolio had fallen in value by £4.7billion in the last financial year. Land Securities reported a pre-tax loss of £4.8bn, the largest ever in the UK property sector, against losses of only £988m in 2008. Understandably their shares fell in value by 13% on the day (60 pence to 468).

On the FTSE, banks and commodities have begun to slip backwards a little whilst the retail sector is doing better, with reports that sales in April were better than expected.
Shares in Tesco Plc and William Morrison Supermarkets Plc both rose on the days trading. Tesco, Britain’s largest retailer gained 3.7 percent to (14 pence to 352.5 pence). Morrison also, climbed 4.1 percent (10 pence to 245.75)

Dublin based C&C Group, brewers of Magners cider, had a simple explanation why their shares rose by 7.8 percent yesterday (14 cents to 1.94 Euros) they said that Ireland’s rugby team winning its first Grand Slam in 61 years and the resultant celebrations during unseasonal warm weather had pushed sales through the roof. .

U.K. stocks feel backwards overall, and for the second day in succession on Wednesday. The FTSE 100 Index fell 94.17 to close on 4,331.37, while the FTSE 250 dropped to 7,365.10.
The pound receded slightly against the dollar and rose strongly against the Euro on currency markets yesterday.

· Pound/US dollar 1.5149

· Pound/Euro 1.1128

· Pound/Japanese Yen 144.317

· Pound/Swiss Franc 1.67659

On Wall Street, stocks fell back from a high in early trading after data was released showing the U.S. trade deficit had risen only to $27.6 billion in March, yet shares later fell as hopes that the economy had stopped its decline were deflated by the news that April retail sales in the US fell a second month in a row. The Dow Jones closed down 184.22 points to 8284.89 while to NASDAQ share index fell by 51.73 to finish the day on 1664.19 Another sacred cow, electronics giant Sony reported that it had made its first loss in 14 years, after a 12.9%.drop in sales.

Sony reported a loss of 98.9bn yen ($ £685million) for the year to the end of March, reversing a profit of 369.4bn yen the previous year.
Sony had previously announced it would be cutting 8,000 of its 185,000 workforce and closing some of its factories

On commodities, crude oil was up at around $59 a barrel while gold continued to rise steadily, up $4.40 an announce to $828.20. Copper closed down $4.65 at $204.35
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