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Osborne wakes up to difficult times ahead for UK economy

May 19th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Global Credit Crisis, Money Management, Mortgages, Recession, Saving, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Credit cards, World Banks

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In one of the classic understatements of the year so far, new finance minister George Osborne has just announced his findings that the British economy is in a dire state and there will be difficult times ahead. Osborne’s revelation came as the government sat down to take action on tackling the record budget deficit. Osborne took up the role of Chancellor after the center-right Conservatives joined with the center-left Liberal Democrats to form the country’s first coalition government for more than half a century, as the Labour Government wound up 13 years rule.

Britain has barely limped out of the worst recession since World War Two, and the new government is under pressure to show their pre-election promises to reduce spending and raise taxes to cut a budget deficit running at more than 11 percent of GDP were not hollow. The coalition already pledged to significantly accelerate the reduction of the deficit in the next five years, cutting £6 billion pounds ($8.75 billion) from non-frontline public services during the current financial year. George Osborne is expected to unveil his emergency Budget on June 22 as the new coalition Government attempts to overcome the appalling state of the economy inherited from Labour.

Meanwhile on the home front, news from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) is that mortgage borrowing by house buyers is on the increase, with the number of loans made to home buyers rising by 25% between February and March, to reach 45,000. First-time buyer borrowing rebounded faster than that by existing home owners, according to CML who also went on to warn that mortgage rationing might continue indefinitely unless the new government helped lenders raise finance.

The latest news on the small business front has shown decrease in UK business insolvencies last month. On a year to year basis, it was shown that

the total number of insolvencies fell by 15.1% in April compared with the same month last year, 2,274 in April 2009 down to 1,818 in April 2010.

Businesses that fell into the medium sized category were found to have suffered the most in April. Companies employing between fifty to hundred workers being the most vulnerable.

In a move that may indicate a thawing of hostilities between internet giant Google and the printed media – particularly Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, Eric Schmidt, chief executive of Google, announced that Google were holding talks with Murdoch and other newspaper proprietors regarding running subscription services for their online sites. Murdoch has repeatedly criticized Google for undermining newspapers by allowing internet users too much access to their valuable news content. Late last year Murdoch went far as threatening to sue Google for including headlines from News International in its search results. Staring from June, the Times and Sunday Times are set to erect a pay wall limiting access to their online news sites to paying customers. The papers will also withdraw their articles from Google’s search engine

With annual results due to be issued before the weekend, mobile phone company Vodafone are expected to announce a 150 percent increase in profits, with analysts expecting pre-tax profits of around £10.4 billion for the year to the end of March. Vodafone’s profits for 2009 were just £4.1 billion, largely due to one of impairment of £5.9 billion pounds of impairment charges.

Reports are that the Spanish bank Santander are believed to have emerged as likely winners of the tender to take over the 318 Williams & Glyn-branded Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) branches across England and Wales. Santander has apparently outbid Virgin, Spanish rival BBVA and Blackstone, with only National Australian Bank’s Clydesdale Bank arm still in the running. RBS is expected to make around £2 billion pounds from the successful completion of the sale.

Meanwhile credit card firm American Express has reportedly become the latest contender to enter into bidding for the payment processing arm of Royal Bank of Scotland. The partially state owned bank has been forced to sell of this division under European Commission rules governing state aid. The move by American Express, which has joined forces with private equity house Permira to table a bid in the £2.5 billion pound auction for RBS’s Global Merchant Services division, has been welcomed by RBS. Previously the bank had stated concerns over stand alone private equity buyers having sufficient experience to manage the business. With experience of processing payments of millions of customers in 130 countries, American Express could fit the bill and help RBS in their drive to expand in emerging markets,

Property development and investment giant, British Land, appears likely to take over the mantle as being the largest company in the field in the UK, leaving their bigger rival, Land Securities in their wake, when both companies announce full year results this week. British Land is expected to reveal that its net value of assets has increased by more than 20 percent over the past year to 490 pence a share, while Land Securities will announce that their shares have risen 16 percent increase in its net asset value over 690 pence a share.

Coming back down to earth with a thump will be British Airways who are widely expected to report losses of more than £600 million pounds when they reports their results on Friday. It is expected that results for the 12 months to the end of March will mark the airline’s worst ever financial performance, over a period in which it suffered from the effects of recession, strikes and bad weather. There are suggestions from senior staff that the company will not be able to survive any further blows. Analysts attending the shareholder’s conference will be keen to hear how chief executive Willie Walsh intends to explain the losses as well as the company’s ongoing dispute with cabin crews.

Pharmaceutical retailer and wholesaler Alliance Boots are expected to join the one billion pounds club on Monday. Alliance Boots, who returned to private ownership in 2007, are expected to announce a trading profit over the one billion pound by exceeding the 11.6 percent growth in 2009, when their profit was £953 million. By passing the one billion pound profit barrier Alliance Boots will become only the third retailer to do so in the history of UK retailing.

The euro has plummeted against the US dollar, falling below $1.22 for the first time since April 2006. The eurozone’s single currency fell more than 1.7% in afternoon trading in New York, to $1.216, before rallying.

The decline came after Germany announced plans to ban naked short-selling of shares from midnight local time on Tuesday. The single currency dropped by more than 2% against the yen on the news. Forex traders fear that the austerity measures being put in place in many eurozone countries will hit growth.

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The cost of the winter comes home to UK insurance companies.

March 15th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Global Credit Crisis, Money Management, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, World Banks

financial news

Recent figures have shown that insurers paid out £650 million from 335,000 claims, with most of them were caused by the wintry weather in the UK this year. According to the Association of British Insurers (ABI), the biggest chunk of the payout was to motorists whose vehicles were damaged vehicles on the slippery roads during January, which was the eighth coldest month on record and the UK’s worst since 1987. The ABI went on to confirm most of the £650 million claims were from 18 December to 13 January when the number of homes, vehicles and businesses all experience damages as a result of the winter weather. Specifically, £395 million was paid out to motorists from 268,400 motor insurance claims.

A new round of tougher stress tests have been ordered by regulators for the UK banks to make sure that if a forecasted "double dip" in the UK economy should occur , they will be able to withstand it in better shape than they did in the " first dip." The banks will be required to prove that their "tier core one capital ratio" would be capable of remaining above the minimum four percent level even if the economy contracted an additional 2.3 percent. These figures were part of a projection provided by the Financial Services Authority said in their annual Financial Risk Outlook.

Official statistics revealed on Thursday that UK industrial output fell 0.9% in January, making for the first drop in five months. The news out a damper on speculation of continued expansion of industrial output, and put further strain on the pound which is still hovering around the $1.50 mark.

The British Property Federation (BPF) has warned against possible abuse of insolvency practices in Britain’s frail real estate market as profitable tenants seek to renegotiate leases signed in better economic times.

The industry body, representing blue chip landlords such as Land Securities and British Land, has condemned the trend. A spokesperson for the BPF explained their standpoint as follows. "Landlords are caught between rock and a hard place when it comes to bailing out occupiers at the expense of their shareholders or facing the prospect of empty space and the costs that come with it,"

BPF has called for tightening of insolvency rules that she said unfairly penalised property company shareholders, among them under fire pension funds, for badly negotiating leases.

Sterling continued to be in the doldrums, with the pound closing yesterday up slightly on $1.5123 while falling against the Euro to €1.1011.

On the FTSE, the star of the show was undoubtedly the Tullett Prebon Company. Tullett Prebon are an interdealer broker, whose shares rose by 25.7% as speculation mounted that the company was in the throes of talks regarding a possible sale of the company to with the Bank of China being marked as potential bidders.

UK equities continued to rally in midweek, despite the weaker-than-forecast manufacturing data. Investors appeared to be focusing their efforts on the financial and mining sectors.

The FTSE 100 index took on 23.0 points to close on 5617. 26 it’s highest level since June 2008, closing at 5,617.26.

The US government announced that they had recorded a budget deficit of $221 billion (£147.6 billion) in February, making for their largest monthly deficit in s history.

Figures from the US treasury now show that the United States total deficit since the beginning of the fiscal year which began in October 2009 now stands at $651.6 billion, putting it well on track to beat last year’s record annual budget deficit of $1.4 trillion, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner calling the deficit "unsustainable".

On the Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped back a little, down 21 points to close on 10,566.95. The NASDAQ Composite was still climbing, rising just 9 points to close on 2,356.27

China’s exports jumped by 46% in February compared with a year ago, raising hopes of a strong recovery in global trade.

The increase was higher than analysts’ expectations of a rise of between 35% and 40%.

It is likely to increase pressure on the Chinese government to raise the value of the yuan, which the US in particular complains is undervalued.

China’s imports also rose strongly, increasing by 44.7% last month

Microsoft founder Bill Gates must have been feeling a little dizzy yesterday after it was announced that he had been knocked down from one of his many pedestals, This one was to second place in Forbes magazine’s billionaire’s list, and not by his close friend US investor Warren Buffet who was in third, but by Mexican telecom giant Carlos Slim, which made for the first time since 1994 that an American has not led the who has got the most cash rankings. Mr Slam’s fortune rose by $18.5 billion (£12.4 billion) from last year to $53.5 billion. The Gates fortune now totals $53 billion, while investment guru Buffet has fallen on hard times, now worth only $43 billion.

2009 was all in all a tough year for billionaires with 332 of them being reduced to being mere multi-millionaires, while around two hundred news ones being accepted to the club, according to the Forbes list.

In the UK, the sixth Duke of Westminster Gerald Grosvenor remained the wealthiest Briton with a net worth of $12 billion as he improved his finances by $1 billion despite the UK property slump. The improving health of the global economy meant that 55 countries were represented in the Forbes, among them China. In fact if you take in Hong Kong, the Chinese now account for 89 of the world’s billionaires, second only to the United States with 403 billionaires.

One or two of them must come from the Chinese automotive industry, which increase capacity at an alarming rate in order to meet demand. Changan Automobile, the 4th largest domestic producer by sales (and a strategic partner of Ford) announced 2009 total revenues up by 88.4%, with an almost two-thirds increase in total units sold. Announcing the figures, the company also said that they expect liberal government policies will continue to support industry growth at the present pace for the foreseeable and that facility expansion will likely continue. Changan is not alone in ramping up capacity, with the Chery Company announcing the launch of a new factory in Mongolia despite the fact that their new facilities in Wuhu and Dalian have not yet been completed. Chery are best known for their range of compact cars.

Signals from Beijing do seem to indicate that the automotive industry will continue to receive special support even as tightening measures are implemented broadly. In a newspaper interview yesterday, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry reaffirmed the Chinese government’s commitment to provide subsidies for green automotive technology to help achieved the official target of half a million green cars before 2013.

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UK retailing and financial sectors optimistic about 2010.

January 13th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Exchage Rate, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK employment

financial news

According to a recent survey conducted by the Confederation for British Industry (CBI), around a third of the UK financial services companies were said to be more optimistic about their situation and that of the sector in general. This makes for the third consecutive quarter that confidence has risen in the financial services industry, making for a 100% increase since the middle of 2009. The increased optimism comes despite slightly weaker volumes being recorded than forecast in the fourth quarter, coupled with some fears that business will contract in the first quarter of this year.

There were smiling faces all around as retailer House of Fraser delivered a trading update on Monday showing a new record for festive sales. Signs that the UK consumer was shrugging off the recession came as the privately-owned department store chain showed sales rising by 7.1 percent in the eight weeks to Jan. 2nd as well as Boxing Day sales figures that were up climbed 27 percent on 2008.

Less happy were the management team at, Tesco, who according to a global study has dropped to fourth place in a league table of the world’s biggest retailers. Tesco dropped one place pushed down by the German retail group, Metro. Sales figures for Tesco for the six weeks to January 9 is expected to report like-for-like sales growth of about three percent for the period.

Some good news for those UK householders whose boilers are rated at G level or lower. In addition to the two combined subsidies from the UK government and British Gas that is liable to cover around a third of the estimated cost of buying and installing a new boiler, British Gas has just added a further £452 in cost savings for those who will be replacing their boiler under the scheme which will come in two forms.

  • A set of comprehensive radiator controls for the home or office valued at £248.
  • Homecare 200 repairs cover for the boiler costing £204.

Anyone who is liable to receive these subsidies, which in general should include anyone who has a boiler more than 15 years old may be eligible to receive these grants and subsidies, contact British Gas on 0845 074 5991 for a free consolation or click http://www.britishgas.co.uk/yourboiler

Spanish banking group Santander has announced the launch of a marketing campaign aimed at bringing its UK brands under one name. Santander will invest around £30 million pounds refurbishing the 1,000 branches across the UK coming under their label as well as printing new product literature for the Abbey, Bradford & Bingley and Alliance & Leicester banks. To add some glamour, formula one racing driver Lewis Hamilton has been chosen to publicise the company’s new image at a Santander branch to be opened in central London.

Manchester United FC have announced their plans to mount a bond issue intended to raise £500 million in order to refinance the club’s mounting debts.

The announcement came as the club announced pre-tax profits of £48.2 million for the year to 30 June 2009, compared with a loss of £21.4 million last year. The profit was swollen by the £80 million fee received by the club from Real Madrid who purchased the services of Cristiano Ronaldo during the close season. According to information issued by the club’s holding company Red Football Ltd, group turnover rose to £278.5 million from £256.2 million in 2008. Although Red Football disclosed no total debt figure was announced, estimates have it at around £700 million.

British Land has unveiled plans to manage a £300 million pound buy-to-let fund being launched by Charles Russell, the prominent UK law firm. The fund has been established to acquire prime residential real estate in London. British Land will also take a small stake in the fund as the property group rapidly expands its residential business, marking British Land’s first residential investments since selling the majority of its portfolio in 2006.

Revenue at IT services group Computacenter remained weak for 2009, largely due to a shortage of large infrastructure projects. With this factor taken this factor into account, the company instituted a substantial cost-cutting programme which look likely to see them beat profit forecasts for 2009, which could be close to £50 million pounds. On the news shares in Computacenter rose 17.7 pence to 309 pence on Tuesday.

The pound continued its recovery above the dollar in mid week trading, while moving up slightly against the Euro.

  • Dollar 1.6207
  • Euro 1.118

On Tuesday the FTSE 100 Index fell 0.7 percent, to 5,498.71.

Meanwhile it has been announced that during one of the biggest turn-downs in US financial history the US Federal Reserve announce that they made a profit of $52.1 billion (£32.2 billion) in 2009, marking a rise of 47% over the previous year, allowing them to pay a record $46.1 billion to the US Treasury last year.

The $46.1 billion was the largest amount ever paid by the central bank since it was creation in 1914, and was largely thanks to the Fed’s attempts to support the financial system throughout the ongoing financial crisis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Tuesday up slightly, nine points to 10,627. The NASDAQ dropped to close on 2,282.

The recently formed US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) is to hold their first public hearing on Wednesday.

The 10-member panel was established by Congress to examine the causes of the 2008 US financial crisis. The committee will examine the causes of the crisis, and are scheduled to hear testimony on the current state of the crisis from a cross section of private and public sector leaders.

Witnesses will include top executives from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

Findings and the report of the panel are due to be presented to Congress and President Barack Obama by 15 December.

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BA merger good news for British tourists says Walsh

November 16th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Gold, Retail, Stocks and shares, The Markets, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

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The planned merger, between British Airways and Spanish carrier Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana SA, which is expected to get regulatory backing and be concluded by the end of next year, will create the world’s third largest airline.

According to Willie Walsh, British Airways (BA) chief executive the planned merger with Iberia is "great news for British Airways, our customers and our shareholders". His comments came after British Airways Plc agreed to the $7 billion merger ending more than a year of talks on a tie-up, largely aimed at fighting a slump in travel and closing the gap with competitors.

Under the all-share deal, British Airways investors will own about 55 percent of the business. The merger due to be completed by late 2010 is still subject to cancellation by Iberia if BA fails to resolve their pressing pension deficit issues.

UK engineering firm Rolls-Royce have announced that they have been awarded contracts to produce aircraft engines to the value of £1.2 billion, The engines will be used to power Airbus planes for Air China and Ethiopian Airlines. Rolls Royce made the announcement the first day of the Dubai Airshow on Sunday. The engines are scheduled to be delivered in stages from 2011 to 2017.

According to representatives from one of the UK’s most powerful unions, Unite, the leading banks have still to absorb the reasons behind the current credit crisis, and continue to set unrealistic sales targets for their staff in order for them to earn their salaries. Instead they continue to apply pressure

On staff to promote financial products, often to those who can ill afford them.

The union says that legislation forcing banks to pay theory staff higher basic salaries and placing less emphasis on bonuses should be implemented. The new breed of British bank should instead focus on high standards of customer service and pay fair wages for all staff. The British government will announce legislation next week giving regulators the power to stop bankers from pocketing big bonuses that could destabilize the financial system, a newspaper reported Saturday. Treasury chief Alistair Darling told the Sunday Telegraph that the new Financial Services Bill will allow financial watchdogs to cancel pay packages that reward undue risk-taking. The bill is due to be announced Wednesday as part of the Queen’s Speech, in which the government lays out its plans for the next session of Parliament.

Darling was quoted as saying that the legislation would give the Financial Services Authority the power to cancel contracts that breach a banking remuneration code agreed by the Group of 20 nations earlier this year. The regulator could fine banks that fail to comply.

Liberty International, the U.K.’s biggest shopping-center owner, added 3.9 percent to 504 pence. British Land, the U.K.’s second-largest real estate investment trust, rallied 2.8 percent to 498.2 pence. Land Securities Group Plc, the largest real estate investment trust, added 2.3 percent to 726.5 pence.

Investment Property Databank Ltd. today said the average value of U.K. stores, offices and warehouses rose 1.9 percent in October, a third month of gains, and the steepest advance since December 2005.

The total return for commercial real estate, which measures the change in capital values and rental income, rose by 2.5 percent in October.

U.K. supermarkets are getting a record amount of sales from promotions as they attempt to lure shoppers before the holiday season. At big supermarkets, 35 percent of sales by value are on promotion, compared with 26 percent a year ago. This year’s level is a record high

Recent figures released show a continued improvement in recruitment activity in October, within the UK financial services sector. Job offers in the month increased by approximately 4%, which is accredited to a significant increase in recruitment activity by stock brokers. On the downside, investment banks are reported to be reducing their intake of new people.

Sterling retreated on Friday before the strengthening dollar, gaining only against the Yen.

  • Pound/US dollar 1.6668
  • Pound/Euro 1.1201
  • Pound/Japanese Yen 149.3497
  • Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6883

The FTSE closed at a 14-month high, aided by gains in property shares. At end of trading Friday the guide was up 20 points to 5,296.55. The FTSE 250 also rose, up 83 points to 9,373.74.

It is now official- The French and German economies, the Eurozone’s two largest, are out of recession.

Figures recently release show that both economies show both grew between July and September, Germany by 0.7% and France by 0.3%. However, both the French and German economies grew by less than analysts had expected.

Lagging behind is the UK, still apparently bogged down in their longest economic contraction since World War II.

Recent figures show that the US trade deficit unexpectedly widened by the largest amount in 10 years in September.

The trade gap, the difference between US imports and exports, grew 18.2% to $36.5 billion (£21.9 billion) from August.

Imports or the same period rose by 5.8%, the strongest increase since 1993, providing yet another indication that consumer spending is recovering.

The Dow Jones made a late rally on Friday, closing for the weekend up 52.30 points to 10280.22. The NASDAQ was seen to be holding its own, up just three points 2160.96.

Hewlett-Packard has announced that they are to acquire the 3Com company for $2.7 billion. A spokesman for HP projected that the acquisition will give HP an added edge in the data centre networking sector. The deal will give HP capabilities in a number of areas in which the company was lacking, he said. Both 3Com and HP have been strong in the small and mid-size business networking space, However analysts predict that the addition of 3Com to their stable will create for HP an enterprise data switch portfolio to better compete with main rivals, Cisco.

Leaders of the 21 nation Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation group(Apec) who are meeting have gathered in Singapore for the annual meeting of the have proclaimed that Asia is leading the world out of recession. Their claims may be backed by the announcement last month from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the Asian economy is expected to grow by 2.75% in 2009 and 5.75% in 2010. These projections compare very well with the flat to negative growth in the US and Western Europe. Statistics which can be seen to reflect the shifting balance of power between the US and Asia.

Gold prices were receding before the weekend, after rising above the $1,100 mark in the previous session. On the other hand crude oil prices were steadying after dropping more than $2 a barrel, which analysts interpreted as being because of fears of reduced US demand.

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