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Osborne wakes up to difficult times ahead for UK economy

May 19th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Global Credit Crisis, Money Management, Mortgages, Recession, Saving, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Credit cards, World Banks

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In one of the classic understatements of the year so far, new finance minister George Osborne has just announced his findings that the British economy is in a dire state and there will be difficult times ahead. Osborne’s revelation came as the government sat down to take action on tackling the record budget deficit. Osborne took up the role of Chancellor after the center-right Conservatives joined with the center-left Liberal Democrats to form the country’s first coalition government for more than half a century, as the Labour Government wound up 13 years rule.

Britain has barely limped out of the worst recession since World War Two, and the new government is under pressure to show their pre-election promises to reduce spending and raise taxes to cut a budget deficit running at more than 11 percent of GDP were not hollow. The coalition already pledged to significantly accelerate the reduction of the deficit in the next five years, cutting £6 billion pounds ($8.75 billion) from non-frontline public services during the current financial year. George Osborne is expected to unveil his emergency Budget on June 22 as the new coalition Government attempts to overcome the appalling state of the economy inherited from Labour.

Meanwhile on the home front, news from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) is that mortgage borrowing by house buyers is on the increase, with the number of loans made to home buyers rising by 25% between February and March, to reach 45,000. First-time buyer borrowing rebounded faster than that by existing home owners, according to CML who also went on to warn that mortgage rationing might continue indefinitely unless the new government helped lenders raise finance.

The latest news on the small business front has shown decrease in UK business insolvencies last month. On a year to year basis, it was shown that

the total number of insolvencies fell by 15.1% in April compared with the same month last year, 2,274 in April 2009 down to 1,818 in April 2010.

Businesses that fell into the medium sized category were found to have suffered the most in April. Companies employing between fifty to hundred workers being the most vulnerable.

In a move that may indicate a thawing of hostilities between internet giant Google and the printed media – particularly Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, Eric Schmidt, chief executive of Google, announced that Google were holding talks with Murdoch and other newspaper proprietors regarding running subscription services for their online sites. Murdoch has repeatedly criticized Google for undermining newspapers by allowing internet users too much access to their valuable news content. Late last year Murdoch went far as threatening to sue Google for including headlines from News International in its search results. Staring from June, the Times and Sunday Times are set to erect a pay wall limiting access to their online news sites to paying customers. The papers will also withdraw their articles from Google’s search engine

With annual results due to be issued before the weekend, mobile phone company Vodafone are expected to announce a 150 percent increase in profits, with analysts expecting pre-tax profits of around £10.4 billion for the year to the end of March. Vodafone’s profits for 2009 were just £4.1 billion, largely due to one of impairment of £5.9 billion pounds of impairment charges.

Reports are that the Spanish bank Santander are believed to have emerged as likely winners of the tender to take over the 318 Williams & Glyn-branded Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) branches across England and Wales. Santander has apparently outbid Virgin, Spanish rival BBVA and Blackstone, with only National Australian Bank’s Clydesdale Bank arm still in the running. RBS is expected to make around £2 billion pounds from the successful completion of the sale.

Meanwhile credit card firm American Express has reportedly become the latest contender to enter into bidding for the payment processing arm of Royal Bank of Scotland. The partially state owned bank has been forced to sell of this division under European Commission rules governing state aid. The move by American Express, which has joined forces with private equity house Permira to table a bid in the £2.5 billion pound auction for RBS’s Global Merchant Services division, has been welcomed by RBS. Previously the bank had stated concerns over stand alone private equity buyers having sufficient experience to manage the business. With experience of processing payments of millions of customers in 130 countries, American Express could fit the bill and help RBS in their drive to expand in emerging markets,

Property development and investment giant, British Land, appears likely to take over the mantle as being the largest company in the field in the UK, leaving their bigger rival, Land Securities in their wake, when both companies announce full year results this week. British Land is expected to reveal that its net value of assets has increased by more than 20 percent over the past year to 490 pence a share, while Land Securities will announce that their shares have risen 16 percent increase in its net asset value over 690 pence a share.

Coming back down to earth with a thump will be British Airways who are widely expected to report losses of more than £600 million pounds when they reports their results on Friday. It is expected that results for the 12 months to the end of March will mark the airline’s worst ever financial performance, over a period in which it suffered from the effects of recession, strikes and bad weather. There are suggestions from senior staff that the company will not be able to survive any further blows. Analysts attending the shareholder’s conference will be keen to hear how chief executive Willie Walsh intends to explain the losses as well as the company’s ongoing dispute with cabin crews.

Pharmaceutical retailer and wholesaler Alliance Boots are expected to join the one billion pounds club on Monday. Alliance Boots, who returned to private ownership in 2007, are expected to announce a trading profit over the one billion pound by exceeding the 11.6 percent growth in 2009, when their profit was £953 million. By passing the one billion pound profit barrier Alliance Boots will become only the third retailer to do so in the history of UK retailing.

The euro has plummeted against the US dollar, falling below $1.22 for the first time since April 2006. The eurozone’s single currency fell more than 1.7% in afternoon trading in New York, to $1.216, before rallying.

The decline came after Germany announced plans to ban naked short-selling of shares from midnight local time on Tuesday. The single currency dropped by more than 2% against the yen on the news. Forex traders fear that the austerity measures being put in place in many eurozone countries will hit growth.

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Cameron gets to number ten.

May 13th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Gold, Money Management, Recession, Retail, The Markets, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Credit Cards, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

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Leader of the Conservative party David Cameron was finally accepted as the UK Prime Minister late on Tuesday after his party and the Liberal Democrats (the Lib-Dems) agreed on a five-year deal to form the UK’s first coalition government since the Second World War, on the promise of forming a “strong and stable government”. Lib-Dem leader Nick Clegg was confirmed as deputy PM while George Osborne will become Chancellor of the Exchequer. After winding up five days of political negotiations, Cameron pledged that the new government’s number one priority will be to tackle the UK’s £163 billion budget deficit., As Gordon Brown announced his resignation, Messrs. Cameron and Clegg declared that they had struck their remarkable political bargain to provide strong and stable government at a moment of crisis. A nation awaits with bated breath for the outcome

Meanwhile its has been announced that the number of UK unemployed rose by 53,000 to 2.51 million during the three months to March According to official figures issued by the Office for National Statistics the level of unemployment total is now since December 1994. On the positive front, the total number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell in April by 27,100 to just over 1.5 million, leaving the unemployment.

Data released on Tuesday by the Financial Services Authority revealed that banks and building societies had to deal with more than two million complaints between July and December 2009, as a waiver that had allowed them to defer claims relating to high penalty charges was lifted. The figure was more than double than processed in the first half of the year. The steep increase was mainly a result of the backlog of complaints relating to unauthorised bank charges. Complaints were put on hold for over two years as the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) entered a battle with a number of big banks to obtain a final ruling on the legality of the high level of charges imposed on customers who exceeded their overdraft limit. The waiver was lifted in December when the case was resolved, with banks winning a surprise victory over the OFT. Banks are estimated to have made more than £2.6 billion a year from unauthorised overdraft charges and might have faced claims of more than £1 billion if had they lost the case.

Blame for the "financial and economic crisis" in the UK has been attributed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). To private sector wages tumbling further behind inflation more than in any other industrialised territory, excluding Mexico, Turkey and Iceland Research by OECD the Paris-based think tank revealed the gross average wage in Britain rose by 0.5 percent to £33,745, which is calculated to be the equivalent to a 1.6 percent fall after factoring in inflation. The OECD went on to warn that low-salaried workers were also more vulnerable to losing their jobs.

All in the entire financial well being of UK consumers was seen to deteriorate during the first quarter of 2010, following four successive quarters of relative improvement. A spokesperson for the body behind the index explained that the downward trend has been largely due to lower levels of earnings growth and the negative impact of higher levels of inflation on real disposable income. In addition, economic activity remains relatively subdued and there has been only a very slight improvement in the labour market.

UK Households have been helped during the last few months by some recovery in house prices and relatively strong equity market performance, but the prospect of cuts in public spending and increases in taxation following the election are expected to add further to the pressures facing households.

More evidence of a lack of confidence among UK consumers was an announcement from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) of a sharp fall in UK retail sales for the month of April.

According to the BRC, the total value of sales fell by 0.2% in April on an annual basis, while the like-for-like drop was 2.3%, making for the steepest fall since December 2008.

Again, the downturn could be attributed to uncertainty which surrounded the general election as well as the timing of Easter.

Broadband provider TalkTalk Telecom have announced their plans to target rapid customer growth in 2010, after it successfully boosted its new customer base by 144,000 in the final quarter of its year to March. In its first trading update since demerging from Carphone, TalkTalk credited their customer growth to the firm’s appeal as a straightforward broadband service provider and to the success of high-profile campaigns. However TalkTalk has ruled out the likelihood of rivaling Virgin Media and BT by buildings its own fibre optic cable to. Meanwhile, British Sky Broadcasting and Virgin Media have been seeking to encourage more new customers through bundling telecom and TV services.

A new company that has been formed after the T-Mobile and Orange’s UK merger has been named Everything Everywhere.

In a statement issued on Tuesday Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom, announced the name, along with a plan to launch a "new assault" on the UK business market. Orange and T-Mobile will retain their distinct brands, with their own shops, campaigns, pricing and service centres.

The Orange and T-Mobile brands have 713 high street stores between them. Orange is the larger brand of the two, with 17.3 million customers to T-Mobile’s 13 million. Orange also brings with it 863,000 fixed-line broadband customers.

Doubts about the strategy of both British Airways and the Unite union began to emerge as the two sides squared up for the three weeks of strikes the airline’s cabin crew have threatened from next Tuesday.

Industry analysts began to state their doubts and fears about the length of the threatened stoppages, and concern about how long it would take to restore relations between management and staff. Strong backing was given to Mr Walsh’s determination to lower costs permanently at the loss-making airline, although none wished to be publicly identified. But it is clear that both the BA chief and his counterparts at Unite are about to enter the most difficult phase of a dispute that has lasted more than a year

There were signs of a growing Eurozone backlash arising against the outgoing (and incoming) UK government for refusing to take part in the eurozone’s €750bn rescue plan. So strong was the reaction that a senior French policymaker was heard to suggest that it may cause Europe to think hard about coming to the UK’s help in a sterling crisis.

Analysts pointed to a “crack in the sign of strong unity in Brussels as, with astonishing insensitivity for the dramatic situation, Britain coolly declared that the crisis was a problem for the Eurozone, as if the crisis would make a point of avoiding the UK.” In the wake of the eurozone rescue deal, there is a view in government circles that speculators might turn their attentions to sterling,

Meanwhile a warning has emerged among some leading global financial experts that that the European debt crisis posed the biggest threat to the US economy, despite some recent relatively upbeat assessment of the US financial recovery.

Gold on Wednesday traded near record prices amid investor concerns that the massive rescue plan for indebted eurozone states will hit currencies. Gold prices hit record highs in Europe amid volatile financial markets. Spot gold in London surged to above $1,230 a troy ounce, exceeding the record set in December last year. Gold prices in euro terms also hit a fresh all-time high of €969 an ounce in late London trading, up almost 26% since the start of the year.

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UK economy continues to recover

April 26th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Daily News, Debt, Employment, Global Credit Crisis, Money Management, Mortgages, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, The Budget, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

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The UK economy continues its recovery from recession, with the news that the UK gross domestic profit (GDP) rose by 0.2% in the first three months of 2010, according to information provided by the Office for National Statistics, The figure was lower than the 0.4% growth predicted by many economists, but like the last quarter of 2009 may still be revised. Initial figures for that period, when the UK moved out of recession were originally estimated at 0.1%, were later revised to 0.4%. The ONS estimated that bad weather at the beginning of the year may have had an impact on output, particularly in the retail and industrial sectors. Meanwhile it was reported that manufacturing output grew by 0.7% over the quarter, while the utilities sector output also rose by 2.5%.

It has been confirmed that UK Government borrowing hit a record high of £163.4 billion in 2009, whilst remaining lower than the £166.5 billion initially predicted by Chancellor Alistair Darling in his 2009 Budget.

Despite that fact the figure still makes for s the biggest annual borrowing figure for a UK Government in peacetime.

In March alone, the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed total borrowing of £23.5 billion.

For the first time, bonus rates on save as you earn (SAYE) schemes are to be cut to zero percent next month. The news has fostered concerns that some employees could shun participation in SAYE plans because there will be less incentive to save.

A £1 billion profits boost looks to be on its way for the Lloyds Banking Group brought about a block in rises of the pensionable salary of its staff. This vital cost saving is expected to play a significant part in returning Lloyds to profit in 2010. The move will also increase the likelihood that the government will be in a position sell its 41 percent stake in the bank in the near future.

As part of their new chief executive Adam Crozier’s expansion plans, Broadcaster ITV is reported to be considering an acquisition of its rival Five Industry sources predict that Crozier will implement expansion plans as soon as possible, before the general consolidation in the sector. If the deal goes through it would give ITV a 53 percent share in the television advertising market.

Two of the UKs largest property investment trusts are to merge to create the sixth-biggest listed property company in the UK with a combined market capitalisation of more than £1.6 billion The F&C Commercial Property Trust (FCPT), are to be merged with the UK Commercial Property Trust (UKCPT) that is owned by the Phoenix Group.

The new company will have a market capitalisation of about £1.6 billion and a property portfolio with net assets of £1.5 billion.

British newspaper and stationery retailer WH Smith has announced a four percent drop in like-for-like sales for the six months to the end of February. WH have spent £35 million in the first half of the year repurchasing shares in a buy-back scheme that has seen their share price rise by ten percent and pre-tax profit rise two percent to £62 million A spokesperson for the group announced that they have decided against extending the buy-back programme, choosing instead to invest in acquisitions and to return cash to shareholders at the end of year. On the news shares in WH Smith closed down 9.5 pence at 505 pence.

Lord Kirkham, founder and chairman of furniture retailer DFS stands to make in excess of £300 million pounds from the sale of his company to private equity firm Advent International, who have purchased the company for £500 million Kirkham will, he will hold on to DFS Properties, which owns approximately one third of the group’s store estate.

Homebuilders were among the biggest gainers in London after the US Commerce Department reported that new home sales in the United States were up by 27 percent in March, the biggest monthly percentage gain in almost half a century. Taylor Wimpey who sells around a third of its properties in the US showed close to a 10% gain on the stock exchange, Barratt Developments was up 4.52 percent, Persimmon 3.81 percent and Bovis Homes 3.45 percent.

The travel and leisure sector also finished the session and the week on a high. Travel returning to normal after the recent closures of airports and airspace in Europe due to ash in the air from the volcanic eruption in Iceland having its effects.

Cruise ship operator Carnival led gains in the sector as it added 5.87 percent, while shares in hotels operator InterContinental Hotels Group rose up by 4.37 percent. British Airways gained 3.86 percent as fears of a protracted grounding were put to the side.

The pound closed against the dollar down .030 on 1.5358 while the Euro closed up to 1.1488

U.K. stocks advanced the most in three weeks before the weekend. Despite a smaller-than-forecast increase in British gross domestic product, prospects for global economic growth remained strong the benchmark FTSE 100 Index rose 58.32 to 5,723.65 on Friday the highest rise since April 1. The increase pared this week’s retreat to 0.4 percent.

Overall The FTSE 100 remains 5.7 percent higher for 2010.

In his weekly radio and Web address, President Barack Obama said on Saturday taxpayer-funded bailouts of the auto industry that he approved had paid off, in what amounted to a rejection of conservative arguments against such government help.

President Obama continues to apply pressure for an overhaul of U.S. financial regulations, saying the promising news from the auto industry had not reduced the need for Wall Street changes.

Government bailouts of Wall Street continue to come under heavy criticism from conservatives who feel the government is spending too much money and that big firms should be allowed to fail.

General Motors Co and Chrysler both reported progress this week in their government-financed turnarounds. However the Obama administration still forecasts some loss on the taxpayer bailout of both companies to help them recover from the economic slump and a steep drop in auto sales.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed for the weekend up 70 points to 11,204.29 while the NASDAQ Composite was up 21 points on 2,530.10

Reports are that Greece’s talks with the IMF on emergency loans to finance its debt are going well. The Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou predicted that Greece would not face problems funding its debts. To tackle the crisis, which has undermined the Euro, Greece has called for emergency funding from the IMF as well as its Eurozone partners. The Eurozone nations are expected to provide emergency loans of up to €30 billion (£26 billion) in the first year, with a further €10 billion coming from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Greece will need some of the money as soon as the 19th May, when it needs to make a debt payment of $11.3 billion.

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Ash costing UK airlines mountains of cash.

April 21st, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Mortgages, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

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UK airlines are expected lose at least £130 million ($200 million) a day in revenues as a result of the volcanic ash-linked disruption, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). IATA, the industry’s governing body has said. Said its members would also lose further money as a result of having to augment expensive contingency plans.

All UK flights in England and Wales were grounded on Friday Those airspace restrictions will remain in place until further notice, with widespread restrictions now in place across Europe.

Research the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has disclosed that almost three quarters of small and medium sized companies (SMEs) have suffered from late payments in the past year, leaving them burdened with £63 billion pounds in unpaid debt. The average amount of bad debt being written off by SMEs doubled in 2009 to £2,529 pounds.

According to a recent report by the UK Institute of Directors, At least £500 billion will need to be invested on infrastructure in the next decade in order for the UK to remain competitive, according to the Institute of Directors (IoD).

The IoD said that despite the fiscal deficit, public spending on energy, transport, and water and should be implemented as it is vital to economic growth.

The group of company bosses suggested that the proceeds from re-privatising the banks, which could be over £50 billion, should be spent on new infrastructure. In 2009 just £7.8 billion was invested on infrastructure. The IoD said that at least £130 billion should be spent on transport projects and that £300 billion will be needed for energy infrastructure, including investments in energy efficiency measures for housing.

Global credit checking group Experian has said UK banks are lagging behind their U.S. counterparts in terms of their willingness to lend to consumers in the six months to the end of March. Experian blamed lack of credit and consolidation in the financial sector for a seven percent fall in organic revenue at its main credit services operations in the UK and Ireland. Shares in the FTSE 100 listed company fell 18.5 pence to 616.5 pence, after it said that its main business of performing credit checks in developed economies had put a lid on revenue improvement

Britain’s biggest retailer Tesco will reveal record profits of around £3.3 billion pounds this week, on global turnover that will breach the £65 billion pound mark. This figure, which will represent an increase of 12 percent on 2009, and double the combined profits of competitors Asda, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s.

The John Lewis Partnership, which is seen as a barometer of British retailing, today announced that sales grew 10% in the week to 10 April, compared with the same period a year ago. The renowned employee-owned department store said customers are still spending despite the uncertainty over next months’ election. The firm has been outperforming its rivals this year and said it is optimistic that strong sales will continue. However, sales at its Waitrose supermarket chain fell 16.7% to £80 million in 2009. However, compared to the same period last year, sales surged 10.7%, highlighting Waitrose’s current position as one of the UK’s fastest growing supermarket.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s UK supermarket arm Asda Group Ltd have announced their aim to become the U.K.’s number one non-food retailer in five years, Asda set out plans for a huge expansion of its standalone general merchandise stores, with plans to increase the number of its ‘Asda Living’ with an average size of 28,000 square feet stores six-fold,, to 150 in five years time, up from 25.

Leading UK Energy provider Eon UK has predicted that European Union regulations are liable to expose Britain to energy shortfalls. The energy firm, which is part of German utility E.ON, has said that EU rules are forcing its oil-fired power station at Grain in southeast England to shut down. The announcement comes as the UK Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE) suggested Britain would need to increase its generating capacity by more than 40,000 megawatts to maintain power supply when output from renewable sources recedes. The BCSE said Britain is planning to install 8,000 offshore wind turbines over the coming decade.

Mobile phone operator Orange, have announced the signing of a deal with BT intended to provide an improved high-speed Internet service to its customers by abandoning its fixed-line network. The company will now compete directly with market leaders Virgin Media and TalkTalk, in a move that could lower charges. The deal with BT will place Orange in the same position as Vodafone who currently offer their customers broadband services using BT’s network.

Dreams, the bed and mattress retailer, have announced an increase in operating profits of 36 percent to £18.4 million pounds for 2009. Latest figures released by the company show sales rose by 23 percent to £280 million pounds. The 240-store chain has plans to open up to 450 stores in the coming years.

On the FTSE Royal Bank of Scotland added 5.11 percent to their shares, making for the best performance of the session. The increase came as a result of positive broker comment from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Competing UK banks did less well, with Barclays Bank dropping 2.56 percent on the news that the SEC has accused Goldman Sachs of civil fraud in relation to activities revolving around mortgage investments.

The U.K.’s second-largest software company Autonomy saw their shares drop to their lowest level for two months after issuing a pessimistic trading

Shares in British Airways understandably dropped 1.9 percent under a cloud of dust and ash.

The pound continues its slow recovery, despite closing down at $1.5396 before the weekend, while closing slightly up against the Euro at 1.140.

U.K. stocks retreated from a 22- month high before the weekend, falling 81.05 points to 5743.96 after having swung between gains and losses at least eight times on Friday. The FTSE 100 is heading for a seventh consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since July,

Bank of America (BoA) has returned to profit, reporting a net income of $3.2 billion (£2.1 billion) for the first quarter of 2010, compared with a $194 million loss in the previous quarter. However figures show a drop in profits of 24% than f the same period a year ago. The US bank said record sales and trading activity at its capital markets arm – including acquisition Merrill Lynch – had driven the latest results.

BoA also announced that they were also setting aside less money to cover anticipated losses on bad loans.

As was to be expected the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a step back on Friday, down 123 points to 11.018.66 while the NASDAQ Composite also lost some ground, down 34.43 points to close on 2,481.26.

Goldman Sachs has been accused of misleading their investors about subprime mortgage products before the US housing market collapsed.

The accusations came from the US Securities and Exchange Commission who charged the bank with failing to disclose crucial information about a synthetic collateralised debt obligation (CDO) product that it structured, which was closely linked to the performance of the residential mortgage-backed securities market. The regulator said that Goldman allowed Paulson & Co, a hedge fund, to influence the portfolio selection process while hedging investment against the CDO.

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UK economic recovery set to be slow and sluggish by the CBI

March 24th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Energy Prices, Exchage Rate, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, The Budget, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

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It only stands to reason that the U.K.’s economic recovery will be slow in 2010. There is an election about to happen and the public have obviously chosen a path the correct path to save spend less and save more. According to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) the economy will grow by 0.3 percent in the first quarter and move up to 0.4 percent in the second quarter, and will finally settle down to expanding 0.5 percent in the second half of the year. The CBI also predicted that gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1 percent in 2010 and 2.5 percent in 2011. Britain’s economy exited its deepest recession on record in the fourth quarter with growth of 0.3 percent.

Bank of England (BOE) officials were also expressing caution on the eve of what may well be the Labour Government’s last budget in well over a decade. The BOE have consistently issued warnings that financial recovery in the UK may prove uneven as credit strains persist.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is due to deliver his budget today, with just a few weeks before the general election, the date of which is yet to be announced. A spokesman for the CBI stated that the government must avoid “damaging” tax rises and focus on spending cuts to narrow the record deficit,

As budget fever mounts, speculation is rife as to what Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will reveal in his speech. Darling has repeatedly stated there will be no pre-election giveaways in the budget but he wants to encourage more investment in UK business after an 18-month recession.

It is expected that government departments which be called on to cut costs that will add some credibility to the U.K.’s deficit reduction plan and Yvette Cooper, the work and pensions secretary, has set the wheels in motion by announcing her department are plan to introduce savings of at least £500 million pounds by the 2012 / 2013 fiscal year.

What is for sure is that the Labour government will unveil their plans to establish a £2 billion "green" investment bank in the budget, designed to help Britain’s transformation to a low carbon economy. The green bank, designed to help finance projects such as railways, offshore wind power generation and eco-friendly waste management, will be partially funded by sales of government assets with the remaining money being drawn from the private sector.

Strike hit British Airways have come up with an estimate that the current three-day strike by the airline’s cabin crew will cost them around £7 million a day in lost earnings. However the airline hastened to point out that the industrial action was unlikely to have much impact on its earnings for the full-year. According to a company spokesman, around a third of flights to and from the UK’s main airports on Monday have so far been cancelled.

BA Heathrow suffered the biggest disruption on Monday, with 201 of the 443 flights on BA’s online schedule being cancelled.

Every cloud does have a silver lining and one of them appears to be that because of the recession, one in four children have reduced their spending. According to new research published this week t children’s attitudes to money have been strongly impacted by the recession with 80% of the children polled stated that they would prefer to save up to buy something rather than get into debt.

The latest financial results from fashion retailer Monsoon show an increase in profits for 2008/2009 eight times higher than the previous year. Over the year to August 29, 2009, the privately owned company showed a profit of taxes of £32.9 million, up from £3.9 million the previous year. Monsoon, who currently operate over 1,000 outlets, report strong sales at its overseas division. Over the next 12 months Monson plan to open another 140 stores.

Another fashion in the financial spotlight is New Look who has announced that they may resurrect their £1.7 billion flotation plans. The decision may come as soon as this week when the New Look board meets to consider whether market conditions have sufficiently improved. The fashion retailer shelved its planned IPO in February, blaming volatile markets. Meanwhile sales at the group are said to be ahead of expectations.

In a move which could raise as much as £400 million pounds Music recording giants EMI are reported to be considering plans to licence its music catalogue. Competitors in the industry would manage the music group’s catalogue, which includes music from The Beatles. If successful the licensing would enable EMI to meet their debt repayments and stave off an attempt by Citigroup, to take control of the company.

Sterling continues to fall ahead of this week’s budget and the fast-approaching general election due to be held in early May, and the prospects that it will be closely fought and may even result in a hung parliament.

The pound continues to be stuck around the $1.50 mark, closing at $1.5037 on Tuesday, while the Euro was on €1.1137.

As concern consists about debt levels whether the next government will be equipped to tackle challenges on public finances the pound looks likely to continue in the doldrums.

The FTSE 100 index closed on Tuesday up 23 points at 5,673.63.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was still on the rise, this time by 147 points to close on 10888.83 The NASDAQ also was on the rise up 42 points to 2415.24

According to Greece’s central bank the country’s economy is trapped in a "vicious circle" and is liable to contract more severely than government predictions. .

The Bank of Greece (BoG) said economic output in 2010 will fall by 2%, much higher than the Greek government’s prediction of between 1.2% and 1.7%.

BoG says the recession will be worse due to planned public spending cuts.

The report comes ahead of a European Union summit to discuss Greece’s economic crisis, as German resistance towards financial aid for Athens persists.

Athens has already come close to defaulting after misleading European partners about the scale of its financial problems, which last year saw its public sector deficit hit almost 13 per cent of gross domestic product

Meanwhile Germany’s coalition government is reportedly planning to establish a banking levy that will protect taxpayers from the costs of any future bank bail-outs. The German government was obliged to seriously deplete their treasury coffers to provide a €500 billion rescue package to shore up the banking system late in 2008.

On the other side of the World, in Dubai, bank officials await anticipation of the severely troubled Dubai World company presenting their long-waited proposals on how they intend to restructure $26 billion of toxic debt.

The Dubai stock market has surged 11% this month on speculation a proposal is imminent.

Crude oil prices managed to rebound from early weakness to settle at around $81.25 a barrel.

Analysts at the Centre for Global Energy Studies said that global oil demand was on the path to full recovery but upward pressure on prices would be limited due to supply side changes.

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Unions set talks to avert national rail strike

March 22nd, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Global Credit Crisis, Money Management, Recession, Retail, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

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Under threat of the first nationwide strike by signalmen in 16 years, Network Rail announced on Friday night that it would meet next week at conciliation service Acas to discuss two separate disputes with the Rail, Maritime and Transport Union (RMT) and the TSSA, which represents managerial grades. The RMT is already threatening to strike over a proposed restructure of Network Rail’s maintenance operations which could lead to the loss of up to 1,500 jobs. However there are also worries over potential strike action by signalers in several areas of the country. The Acas talks will take place on either Monday or Tuesday.

In the air, British Airways have announced that their contingency plans for the first day of a three-day cabin crew strike have gone "extremely well".

A spokesman for BA said that according to their program, more than 65% of passengers would reach their destinations, with 1,157 staff working and some canceled flights reinstated. However the Unite union, representing the striking crew members has speculated that only a third of BA’s normal flights took off, with 125 out of its 250 planes grounded.

Another four-day strike is planned for 27 March in the pay and conditions row.

Within the next few days Chancellor Alistair Darling is expected to endorse plans for a global tax on certain financial institutions. These are institutions that are likely to pose a "systemic risk" by being dependent on government insurance schemes to stay afloat. Darling us expected to use the budget announcement to detail his backing of the proposals, with his key recommendations being that government revenue raised should go to national governments rather than an insurance scheme, which he believes would encourage banks to take more risk on lending and expansion. Darling’s views are similar to those expressed recently by Dominique Strauss-Khan head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who encouraged Europe to establish a system of orderly bankruptcy for cross border banks which would be less dependent on insurance schemes to fund bailouts.

In a recent survey conducted by Small Business Britain Entrepreneurs it was revealed that 40 per cent of small and medium, sized business enterprises (SMEs) would like to see a fall in employers’ national insurance contributions. In addition over 45 per cent would like to see banks to offer better rates to smaller firms. All in all they have called for Chancellor Alistair Darling’s budget to support small and medium-sized businesses, while at the same time, according to an unrelated survey small and medium-sized businesses are reported to be gaining increased confidence that the UK’s economic recovery looks likely to continue. The HSBC’s Global Small Business Confidence Monitor has reported that over three-quarters of SMEs now expected steady or increasing growth over the next six months

On the downside, the recent severe spell of weather has reportedly caused losses of around £7 billion pounds to SMEs. A survey showed that nearly two-fifths of those taking part stating that the harshest winter in decades had forced them temporarily cease operations, whilst more than forty percent said that weather conditions had cause some form of disruption to their business. Just less than a quarter of the firms surveyed announced that had not been affected by the severe weather in January.

Recent figures published today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed that UK car production in February increased by almost two thirds against the same month in 2009, representing the fourth consecutive month that output has seen a year-on-year increase.

The SMMT announced that close to 100,000 cars came off the production line in February, with the majority going for export. In addition, around 10,226 commercial vehicles were also produced in February. A spokesman for the SMMT said the scrappage scheme continues to boost demand and production. The ‘cash for bangers scheme is due to expire at the end of this month with the SMMT predicting that the industry will be affected by the scheme drawing to a close.

Clothing retailer Next are expected to announce in their full year results due out on Wednesday that it has beaten many of its high street rivals. Pre-tax profits are predicted to have risen by £66 million pounds to £635 million pounds. Other companies due to release their results this week include supermarket giant Sainsbury, with their fourth-quarter trading figures due out on Thursday.

The pound continues to fall sharply against the dollar and the Euro, with the fall not being helped by a Bank of England (BOE) policymaker predicting that the UK could yet fall back into recession. On that piece of optimistic news the pound fell against the dollar, to $1.503. The pound fell against the Euro to 1.100. The prediction of the chance of double-dip recession taking place came from a BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentance.

On the FTSE, Banks were the biggest risers, with Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group all on the up.

Partially state owned, Lloyds announced a return to profitability in 2010 after two years of heavy losses. Their recovery was helped by lower than expected bad debts and tight cost controls. On the news shares in Lloyds Banking Group s rose sharply after the bank announced that they had succeeded in reserving losses of £6.3 billion ($9.5 billion) in 2009

Energy shares were also on a high with BP and Royal Dutch Shell both among the early risers.

Meanwhile the FTSE was continuing to rose, aided by news that Lloyds Banking Group said it would return to profitability in 2010

The FTSE 100 index finished for the weekend at 5,650.13, after hitting a 21-month closing peak on Wednesday.

On Wall Street before the weekend close, the Dow Jones was still on the rise, this time by 83 points to close on 10741.98. The NASDAQ took a little dip, after enjoying a good week. It fell four points to 2374.41.

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BOE predict stability in the labour market in coming months.

March 17th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Employment, Global Credit Crisis, Recession, Stocks and shares, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, UK employment, World Banks

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As the UK’s emergence from the recession gains slow but steady momentum recent predictions from the Bank of England show that the number of jobs available on the market are unlikely to deteriorate any further, Reasons given are that most UK companies are doing the maximum to maintain current staff levels to cope with the anticipated upturn in demand.

According to spokesman for the BOE, the banks findings were that although employment had fallen during the recession, it was much less than the comparative fall in output. Figure confirm that although unemployment had risen in the last two years, it was much less pronounced than during the previous two periods of recession in the 1980s and 1990s, although the current recession was much more severe. Despite that slightly rosy report, the fact remains that unemployment benefit claims jumped in January to the highest level since Labour rose to power almost 13 years ago.

According to a European Commission (EC) report due to be published later this week, the UK government’s plans to reduce their budget deficit are far from being realistic as well as lacking in ambition

The EC report went on to warns hand out a warning that if the UK continues on their current path, the will not be able to cut their deficit to meet the deadline set by the EU rules by 2015. The EU are insisting that

Deficits in their member countries must be less than three percent of their gross domestic production (GDP) by then. To show how far the UK is lagging behind is that the GDP in the UK is expected to be as high as 12.6% or £178 billion.

British Airways, facing imminent strike action from their cabin crew, have revealed their contingency plans to cope with the crisis. The plans, if they need arises to put them into action, will allow it to the airline to handle around 60% of its scheduled flights, with 45,000 passengers taking their seats during the first stage of the strike, due to begin on the 20th of March, .

Those who BA will be unable to transport will be given the option of flying with other airlines. Meanwhile plans for the second round of strikes will be announced nearer the date. Of the almost two thousand flights scheduled during the strike dates, more than half will need to be cancelled. However BA expects that all of their long-haul flights and more than half of short-haul flights taking off from Gatwick airport will take place.

Another sign that all is not well with the UK travel industry is the news that UK’s airports handled 7.4% fewer passengers in 2009 than in the previous year, making for the largest decline in traffic in history

The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) also announced that this was the first time that passenger traffic had fallen for two consecutive years, with charter flights being especially hit, down by 17%, in total more than two hundred million passengers passed through UK airports in 2009, the lowest number

since 2004. Overall scheduled airline traffic fell by six percent while.

domestic flight traffic was down by eight percent.

Telecommunications companies are getting hot under the collar about the government’s plans to increase the availability of internet access on mobile phones, with some of them going as far as threatening legal action. Among the companies who are investigating legal action are O2 and Vodafone upset, after UK government ministers finally submitted their proposals designed to end the long-standing dispute between mobile phone operators over radio spectrum. Hopes are that the law will be passed by the government before the end of March and they will give the green light to plans to hold a large air wave auction in early 2011. However UK telecommunications companies with O2 and Vodafone leading the way hope that they will be delay the auction.

On the money markets, Sterling continues to be in the doldrums, sitting on $1.5228 and €1.1046 with no signs or reasons for a recovery in sight. The pound ended two days of minimal gains against the dollar after a private report showed U.K. home sellers raised asking prices by the smallest amount for March on record as the supply of available properties increased.

On the FTSE, things were looking a lot more optimistic, with the 100 index rising 26 points to 5620.43.

In the US, the big news was that industrial production has again increased in February, making it for the eighth consecutive, despite analysts’ predictions that it was likely to fall. According to the Federal Reserve who produces the figure, production would have been even higher had it not been affected by severe winter storms that had plagued the industrialized zones in the North East of the Country in February

Overall industrial output rose by 0.1% in February, from January’s figures while the manufacturing sector dropped by 0.2%. Production in consumer goods fell by 0.4% in February, much of it because of a drop in new car sales.

On Wall Street optimism was in the air, with the Dow Jones rising again, this time by 43.83 points to close on 10658.98. The NASDAQ showed a very commendable rise or 15 points to 2378.01.

The US Federal Reserve has again repeated their pledge to hold interest rates at record lows in order to allow the continuation of the economic recovery. Main interest rate would be kept at the current 0% to 0.25% range, news that was widely expected.

The Feds rate-setting committee announced that the data being gatherer on the US economy described a mixed picture of the recovery from recession.

The troubled Euro succeeded in reaching a five-week high against the yen in money markets over the last two days. The rise was caused by increased speculation that the European Union will announce their bail out plans for Greece. When the plans are eventually released, anticipations are that there will be an increase in demand for the Eurozone currency.

On concerns that the Bank of Japan will announce extra credit-easing steps at its two-day policy meeting, the yen was close to a three-week low versus the dollar. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama had sown some seeds of doubt regarding the strength of the currency when he announced last week that his government needed to take steps to arrest the currency’s rise.

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Congratulations. It’s been a year now since the Bank of England increased their interest rates.

March 5th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Exchage Rate, Global Credit Crisis, Loans, Money Management, Mortgages, Recession, Saving, Savings Accounts, Stocks and shares, UK Bank Accounts, UK Banks, World Banks, savings accounts

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It came as no big surprise to anybody when the Bank of England (BOE) announced that they will be holding interest rates at their record low of 0.5%, and for the twelfth consecutive month.

The BOE’s decision gained a consensus of approval by UK economists, who pronounced, individually and collectively that rises in the cost of borrowing could set the UK’s fragile economic recovery back into the red.

The announcement that the bank will be standing firm on the amount of money that will be pumped into quantitative easing program (QE) programme was also met with a similar apathy.

BOE governor Mervyn King has long since made clear his opinion on increasing interest rates raising QE quotas, and all the rest of the UK’s financial programs by simply stating that that it was “far too soon” to make any changes to the status quo.

Sterling has now dropped in value for six consecutive trading days, with the bulk of opinion on the Pound’s increasingly weak position being because of speculation that the forthcoming general election is liable to see a hung parliament which translates to a government that will be too weak to mend the UK’s financial problems. Since the beginning of 2010, the pound has dropped by seven percent against the dollar, reaching a ten month low of $1.4783 on March the 2nd. The pound closed on Thursday on $1.5051 while the Euro was stabilising at 1.1078.

Financial Service Institute (FSA) chairman Lord Turner has voiced his opinion that that the size of banks was also not the main reason behind the economic turmoil, and even some of the UK’s smaller financial institutions could have been pronounced equally guilty of “over-exuberant lending” and taking “risky short-term wholesale deposits, Turner explained “Everyone was seduced by the long boom and were often led astray in the past by complicated mathematical rules. The Bank’s regulators were the ones who failed to notice the inherent weakness in that position.”

The FSA chairman also went on to explain that when the time comes to add up the cost of bailing out the financial services industry at the height of the global financial crisis may in the end turn out to be a lot less than first predicted.

“It is quite possible that the total overt costs of the UK’s big bank rescues may not exceed five-ten per cent of GDP," Turner predicted in a recent interview "and perhaps considerably less as indeed was the case in the Swedish banking crisis of the 1990s.” He summed up.

Recent research is pointing to a situation that increasingly adds weight to the theory that the UK’s property rental sector is heading towards a similar model of the mainland European countries of increasingly longer tenancy agreements.

According to one of the UKs largest letting agencies, during the last year and a half, a fairly dramatic increase in demand for rented accommodation has been observed, with potential tenants being especially interested in properties with long term tenure periods.

Reasons given for this new phenomena in property rental appears to be largely causes by increasing difficulties of young families to raise the new and higher deposit levels required to be granted a mortgage, while around a third confessed that they were unsure that the conditions were ripe to put their toe in the still turbulent waters of the UK property market. With almost 40 percent of potential first-time home buyers opting to remain tenants in the meantime, because of the current tough mortgage-lending criteria and 14% of those questioned said they preferred life as a tenant to that of a homeowner.

Home ownership in the UK has fallen by three percent since 2003 with the trend likely to continue. Several of the UK’s leading property management companies now believe that the UK Government now needs to ensure that renting a home offers the stability levels that are currently only afforded to home owners.

British Airways, once again under strike threat have dug in by saying that more than one thousand of the staff have volunteered to work as cabin crew if indeed the threatened strike goes ahead.

As a further back up, BA announced that they also intended to hire no less than 23 fully crewed planes from a leading European owned charter company. The company’s role will be to help run flights from Heathrow Airport should the strike threats eventually materialise.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) recently announced that new car sales in the UK increased by 26.4% in February compared with the same month in 2009, with the main push in demand coming because of the Government’s scrappage scheme.

Launched in May of last year in an effort to boost the ailing car industry, the £400 million initiative, which allowed owners of cars at least 10 years old would be offered a £2,000 discount off the price of a new vehicle, with half of the grant being provided by the UK Government and the other £1,000 coming from the lucky carmaker. Figures from the SMMT show that almost 20 percent of new car sales in February came a result of the scheme, which is due to be wound up by the end of March.

On the stock market, Barclays Plc’s Asian partner, the China Development Bank announced that they will be reviewing their “ties” with the bank, U.K.’s second-biggest. The announcement caused shares in Barclays to rise one percent, to 333.1 pence.

The U.K.’s third-largest supermarket owner J Sainsbury Plc has announced plans to expand their activities into non-food products. They will be marketing electronics, entertainment and sports equipment among others through their Web site. Despite the excitement, Sainsbury shares 0.2 percent, to close on 335.4 pence.

Michael Page International Plc, the U.K.’s second- largest recruitment company announced a drop in full-year pretax profit of no less than 85 percent to £21.1 million pounds. Despite the reversal, their shares climbed 6 1.7 percent, to close on 395 pence.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index fell 0.1 percent, to close on Thursday at 5,527.16.

On Wall Street, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average the only way was up, this time rising 47.38 points to close on 10,444.14. The NASDAQ Composite also held its own, rising 11 points to close on 2,292.31.

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UK needs to work harder to encourage foreign investment.

February 25th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Employment, Energy Prices, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Small Business, UK employment, World Banks

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UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown received a polite warning yesterday from international leaders who attended a conference in central London that Britain’s tax regime and infrastructure must be improved if the country is to continue attracting investment. Brown and business secretary, Lord Mandelson stressed that the UK still remained a competitive place to do business despite the turmoil caused by the recession.

Following in the footsteps of his opposite numbers at Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland is Eric Daniels, chief executive of the taxpayer-supported Lloyds Banking Group. Daniels has joined them in waiving his right to a bonus for 2009 of around £2.25 million. Lloyds Banking Group have announced that they would pay 2009 bonuses to those who were entitled to them, whilst emphasising that these awards would be paid in shares and subject to clawback.

Criticism has been rained on the government’s planned 50 pence monthly tax on telephone lines designed to subsidise the cost of superfast broadband has come from all places, by a Labour-dominated group of MPs.

The Commons Business Committee said the new tax, which is expected to raise £175 million per year, would hit poorer families who were less likely to pay for faster broadband. The committee went on to add that the “regressive” tax would “place a disproportionate cost on a majority who will not, or are unable to, reap the benefits of that charge”.

The UK’s largest airports operator of airports BAA, announced on Monday that their pre-tax losses for 2009 had widened, partly because of losses of £277.3 million from the sale of Gatwick Airport, London’s second-largest. The £1.5 billion sale of the airport to Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) took place just before the end of the financial year. GIP is an infrastructure fund backed by Credit Suisse and General Electric. Competition authorities had ordered a sale to meet concerns about BAA’s market dominance.

The loss on the sale helped inflate losses at BAA owned by a consortium led by Spanish group by Spanish group Ferrovial, from £324.2 million to £821.9 million. Total revenue for the year to December at the group’s London airports, including Gatwick, rose from £2.3 billion to £2.4 billion. Figures for the group excluded BAA’s other airports around the country at Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Southampton

The prospect of a strike is again raising its head for British Airway’s cabin crew. Their proposed strike action looks likely to cause travel chaos for hundreds of thousands of air passengers across the UK. The vote in favour of industrial action by the 12,000 member BA cabin crew comes as a reaction to ongoing disputes over pay and working conditions.

The cabin crew’s union Unite had already decided on a walkout in December, but that BA strike threat was defused by an eleventh-hour High Court ruling.

Meanwhile a strike by around four thousand German airline Lufthansa pilots has been suspended, with union officials agreeing to resume negotiations on disputes covering job security and pay issues.

The action, scheduled to run for four days, was suspended after less than 24 hours, and caused delays and cancellations for passengers. According to the pilot’s union, there will be no further action until at least March 9, the union said.

According to a company spokesman, electronics giant Samsung will introduce its 3D-enabled TVs to the UK within the coming month. No less than twenty different 3D-capable products, with Blu-ray players and the required 3D glasses are expected to be included in the range. To keep pace with demand, TV shows with 3D content will be making their debut in or around the same time, to a partnership with DreamWorks. The rapidly approaching 2010 soccer World Cup will also be broadcast in 3D.

Sterling fell on Tuesday after Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, said he could not rule out the possibility of further quantitative easing. Speaking before the Treasury select committee King confessed his concern over scant evidence of a pick-up in UK trade in spite of the weakness of the pound. The pound, which had risen to a high of $1.5575 ahead of the Bank’s statement, fell more than a cent to $1.5441, whilst rising to 1.1415 against the Euro.

The FTSE 100 turned negative on Tuesday following King’s gloomy assessment of the UK economy. The index closing 0.7 per cent lower at 5,315.09.

The US Senate on Monday voted to move forward on a $15 billion jobs bill.

The 62-30 vote in favour of ended months of gridlock in Congress, and is expected to pave the way for a jobs bill to clear the Senate, just as other critical employment benefits are set to expire.

The scaled-back measure is expected to create 250,000 jobs through an array of tax credits and payroll tax exemptions to stimulate hiring. The bill frees businesses from payroll taxes on workers who are hired after more than 60 days of unemployment and gives them a tax credit of $1,000 for new hires that they keep for more than a year.

A number of retail giants reporting positive earnings surprises were not enough to offset Tuesday’s poor macro data, as investors grow concerned that last week’s rally overshot.

Consumer confidence index dropped dramatically to 46.0 in February versus 56.5 in January, the lowest level since last April.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 126.41 points to 10,276.97 while the NASDAQ Composite also crept back by a significant 34 points to close on 2,209.6.

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has announced his concern regarding the stability of his country’s investments in US bonds.

China disposed of $34 billion (£21.5 billion) of US government bonds in December 2009, raising fears that Beijing is losing confidence in American economic policy.

US treasury figures show that China is once again no longer the largest overseas holder of US treasury bonds. Beijing ended the year sitting on $755. Billion worth of US government debt, compared to Japan’s $768 billion.

Oil prices retreated below $80 a barrel Tuesday as r sluggish US crude demand justified a 14 percent rally over the last three weeks.

Benchmark crude for April delivery was down 34 cents to $79.97 a barrel, later rising 25 cents to settle at $80.31 on Monday.

Oil had jumped from $69.59 a barrel in early February due to optimism that the global economy will rebound strongly from recession last year. Yet growing inventories of crude, gasoline and diesel fuel suggest demand in the US remains weak.

Some analysts expect crude demand in the US and Japan will gradually follow overall economic growth and lift prices, with crude expected to trade at between $85 and $95 a barrel for most of 2010.

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Doubts grow about the strength of UK economy’s recovery.

February 2nd, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Central banks, Daily News, Recession, Retail, Stocks and shares, UK Banks

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While the UK economy snapped back into growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, it did so at a rate considerably less than economists’ forecast. It was thanks to the service industries and manufacturing sector, which expanded just enough to pull Britain out of its longest recession on record. According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by a mere 0.1% from the third quarter. The weakness of the recovery will pose a challenge to Bank of England officials who are due to sit next week to consider week whether the economy is strong enough to begin winding down the Government’s emergency stimulus measures. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’ is regarded as being especially anxious to see and end his government’s propping up of the economy, as delaying it may hamper his efforts to win an election due by June of this year. Much of Brown’s campaigns have been based on promises to curb the budget deficit.

Brown is putting up his case that he is better placed that Conservative leader David Cameron to cut the ballooning budget deficit without hurting the economic recovery. Splits in the Labour Party are beginning to show as election day draws closer with Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling announcing that it would be “absolutely mad” to withdraw stimulus measures now.

The Bank of England’s £200-billion pound asset-purchase facility, designed to keep borrowing costs low and help pull the economy out of the recession also expired this week.

Meanwhile it was announced that the UK economy shrank 4.8% in 2009, making for the biggest annual drop since records began in 1949. It was also reviled that the in the fourth quarter the economy contracted 3.2% compared to records from 2008.

The fourth quarter data, the first to be released by a Group of Seven nation, means Britain is the last member country to exit the recession that was sparked by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The US Government was expected to release GDP data for the fourth quarter on late January 29.

The news that the Lloyds Banking Group has succeeded in placing of £2.5 billion pounds of mortgages with investors, has raised new hopes that securitisation markets are beginning to open for banks. A £4 billion issue last September by Lloyds recorded a first attempt by a bank to tap the securitisation markets since the onset of the credit crisis. However Friday’s issue was the first to cause any form of reaction interest among U.S. investors to purchase prime residential mortgage securities

There are strong signs of recovery popping up London’s financial services industry, which took a severe pounding during the credit crunch. Recruitment is already on the up, and a recent survey showed that more than 80 percent of hiring managers are expecting recruitment volumes to rise in 2010. Only five percent of those responding to the survey named handling redundancies as a key personnel challenge for the year ahead, will close to half of those interviewed pointed to the threat of competitors poaching staff as a problem. The main problem for 2010, according to close to two thirds taking part, would, be salaries and particularly of discretionary bonuses. Remuneration has become a major hot potato in the financial industry, as the sector has emerged from the crisis under increased public and regulatory scrutiny.

Irene Rosenfeld, chief executive of Kraft has predicted that Cadbury has a positive future under the ownership of the US conglomerate, whilst adding fears of job losses at the UK company are "greatly overstated" and.

In her first interview since the takeover was agreed by the Cadbury board earlier this month, Rosenfeld announced that Kraft would not be looking for any mergers and acquisitions activity in the "near term" following the purchase of the UK confectionary company. "We acquired Cadbury because we believe it is a fabulous business and it is our intention to protect those assets," Ms. Rosenfeld pointed out. "It is our intention to invest in the business; in fact, if anything, the opportunities for the business will be greater as a result of the combination than perhaps they might have been on a standalone basis, given some of the competitive pressures." She continued.

Speculation is growing that the planned sale of the discount fashion chain Matalan is unlikely to raise the sum in excess of £1.5 billion pounds targeted by the company’s owner John Hargreaves. American private equity firms TPG, Advent International among others are expected to make offers in time for next Friday’s deadline. Analysts fear that the parties involved are wary of paying too high a price for Matalan. A clause in the deal specifying a "break price" of between £1.2 to £1.25 billion pounds, has been inserted by Hargreaves, entitling him to refuse any bids below this figure

Expectations are that the release of British Airways’ results for the three months to the end of December 2009 will expose further heavy losses at the airline. BA is expected to reveal a loss of £151 million for the third quarter of the financial year, making for total losses up to the end of March to £602 million, up almost fifty percent from 2008, which was BA’s previous record loss. The threat of pre Christmas strikes and severe weather conditions are two factors among many that have contributed to the company’s already poor situation.

Carphone Warehouse subsidiary TalkTalk have announced the launch of a new television and mobile phone service. The launch is yet another sign of the telecoms group desire to step up its challenge to their sector rivals. Charles Dunstone, chief executive of Carphone Warehouse, outlined the plans for the new division on Friday as the company also released details of the demerger of its telecoms and retail interests. TalkTalk, due to gain a stock market listing in March, have identified TV and mobile services as potentially strong sources of growth. Carphone Warehouse’s broadband rivals already offer TV services, and the market is rapidly expanding.

UK Coal’s already stagnating share price was sent even lower as the mining and property group announced that were liable to increase by £100 million pounds in 2009. UK Coal has announced that they expect production in 2010 to be roughly seven million tonnes, compared with 7.9 million tonnes last year. The company faced severe technical and geological problems in its underground mines in the second half of 2008. The troubled company’s shares fell 4.5 pence to 61.5 pence.

The pound posted a weekly advance against the euro after the U.K. economy exited recession in the fourth quarter and Bank of England policymaker. Expectations are that the U.K. currency will continue to gain value as the government’s propping up of the economy may not be extended, with the decision to be announced when the Bank of England meets to decide on interest rates on Feb. 4. Sterling also posted a monthly gain against the Euro, when closing for the weekend at 1.532.

The pound strengthened 1.3 percent in the week, its strongest level in five months. It advanced 2.3 percent in the January. The U.K. currency dropped 0.7 percent to $1.5993 for a monthly decline of 0.8 percent.

The pound rose 8.5 percent against the euro in the first month of 2010, the biggest monthly gain since the single European currency was launched in 1999.

The US economy grew by an annual rate of 5.7% between October and December, official figures have shown.

The number, which is a first estimate, is a big rise from the previous quarter’s growth rate of 2.2%.

It suggests the country’s economy is growing at its fastest pace for six years and confirms the US economy has left its year-long recession behind.

But even with the rebound, gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 2.4% across 2009 as a whole, making for the worst annual performance since 1946.

On the news, the Dow Jones fell again this time by 53.13 points, 135 points, to close on Friday at 10067.33, while the NASDAQ lost another 31 points, to finish for the weekend on 2147.35

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