As the UK’s emergence from the recession gains slow but steady momentum recent predictions from the Bank of England show that the number of jobs available on the market are unlikely to deteriorate any further, Reasons given are that most UK companies are doing the maximum to maintain current staff levels to cope with the anticipated upturn in demand.

According to spokesman for the BOE, the banks findings were that although employment had fallen during the recession, it was much less than the comparative fall in output. Figure confirm that although unemployment had risen in the last two years, it was much less pronounced than during the previous two periods of recession in the 1980s and 1990s, although the current recession was much more severe. Despite that slightly rosy report, the fact remains that unemployment benefit claims jumped in January to the highest level since Labour rose to power almost 13 years ago.

According to a European Commission (EC) report due to be published later this week, the UK government’s plans to reduce their budget deficit are far from being realistic as well as lacking in ambition

The EC report went on to warns hand out a warning that if the UK continues on their current path, the will not be able to cut their deficit to meet the deadline set by the EU rules by 2015. The EU are insisting that

Deficits in their member countries must be less than three percent of their gross domestic production (GDP) by then. To show how far the UK is lagging behind is that the GDP in the UK is expected to be as high as 12.6% or £178 billion.

British Airways, facing imminent strike action from their cabin crew, have revealed their contingency plans to cope with the crisis. The plans, if they need arises to put them into action, will allow it to the airline to handle around 60% of its scheduled flights, with 45,000 passengers taking their seats during the first stage of the strike, due to begin on the 20th of March, .

Those who BA will be unable to transport will be given the option of flying with other airlines. Meanwhile plans for the second round of strikes will be announced nearer the date. Of the almost two thousand flights scheduled during the strike dates, more than half will need to be cancelled. However BA expects that all of their long-haul flights and more than half of short-haul flights taking off from Gatwick airport will take place.

Another sign that all is not well with the UK travel industry is the news that UK’s airports handled 7.4% fewer passengers in 2009 than in the previous year, making for the largest decline in traffic in history

The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) also announced that this was the first time that passenger traffic had fallen for two consecutive years, with charter flights being especially hit, down by 17%, in total more than two hundred million passengers passed through UK airports in 2009, the lowest number

since 2004. Overall scheduled airline traffic fell by six percent while.

domestic flight traffic was down by eight percent.

Telecommunications companies are getting hot under the collar about the government’s plans to increase the availability of internet access on mobile phones, with some of them going as far as threatening legal action. Among the companies who are investigating legal action are O2 and Vodafone upset, after UK government ministers finally submitted their proposals designed to end the long-standing dispute between mobile phone operators over radio spectrum. Hopes are that the law will be passed by the government before the end of March and they will give the green light to plans to hold a large air wave auction in early 2011. However UK telecommunications companies with O2 and Vodafone leading the way hope that they will be delay the auction.

On the money markets, Sterling continues to be in the doldrums, sitting on $1.5228 and €1.1046 with no signs or reasons for a recovery in sight. The pound ended two days of minimal gains against the dollar after a private report showed U.K. home sellers raised asking prices by the smallest amount for March on record as the supply of available properties increased.

On the FTSE, things were looking a lot more optimistic, with the 100 index rising 26 points to 5620.43.

In the US, the big news was that industrial production has again increased in February, making it for the eighth consecutive, despite analysts’ predictions that it was likely to fall. According to the Federal Reserve who produces the figure, production would have been even higher had it not been affected by severe winter storms that had plagued the industrialized zones in the North East of the Country in February

Overall industrial output rose by 0.1% in February, from January’s figures while the manufacturing sector dropped by 0.2%. Production in consumer goods fell by 0.4% in February, much of it because of a drop in new car sales.

On Wall Street optimism was in the air, with the Dow Jones rising again, this time by 43.83 points to close on 10658.98. The NASDAQ showed a very commendable rise or 15 points to 2378.01.

The US Federal Reserve has again repeated their pledge to hold interest rates at record lows in order to allow the continuation of the economic recovery. Main interest rate would be kept at the current 0% to 0.25% range, news that was widely expected.

The Feds rate-setting committee announced that the data being gatherer on the US economy described a mixed picture of the recovery from recession.

The troubled Euro succeeded in reaching a five-week high against the yen in money markets over the last two days. The rise was caused by increased speculation that the European Union will announce their bail out plans for Greece. When the plans are eventually released, anticipations are that there will be an increase in demand for the Eurozone currency.

On concerns that the Bank of Japan will announce extra credit-easing steps at its two-day policy meeting, the yen was close to a three-week low versus the dollar. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama had sown some seeds of doubt regarding the strength of the currency when he announced last week that his government needed to take steps to arrest the currency’s rise.

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Tags: BA, Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Banking, BOE, British airways, British Economy, British Pound, Civil Aviation Authority, Credit Crunch, Currency, Dow Jones, Economics, Economy, Employment, European Commission, Financial News, FTSE, Gatwick, GDP, Global Credit Crisis, Money, Money Management, NASDAQ, O2, Recession, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, UK travel, US economy, US Federal Reserve, Vodafone, Wall Street, Yukio Hatoyama

Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England (BOE) has taken an about turn on his previous forecasts for economic growth in the UK in the coming two years, He tampers his newly found optimism with forecasts that any recovery in the UK economy will be both slow and unstable, largely because of the slow rate of industrial output which has been endemic since early 2008. King was quoted as saying that "Britain was facing a prolonged period of balance sheet adjustment” as households, businesses and government understandably rein in spending to levels they can afford. The BOE in its most recent quarterly inflation report has forecast growth rates of 2.1 per cent for 2010 and 4 per cent for 2011, making for a major upward revision from their own forecasts in August, of 1.9 per cent and 3 per cent for 2010 and 2011 respectively. The bank’s forecasts are also much higher than the outlook of private sector economists and even the UK Treasury’s predictions. Mervyn King.

Presenting the Bank’s latest quarterly inflation report, King predicted that the UK economy has "only just started" along its road to economic recovery, and lending by commercial banks would "probably remain weak over the next three years". The governor also predicted during his speech that inflation may "rise sharply over the next few months", triggered by VAT returning to 17.5% on 1 January 2010 as well as the effects of ever increasing fuel costs.

According to data from the Office for National Statistics, unemployment in the UK rose at its slowest rate for 18 months. Yet another signal that the UK economy may finally be on the verge of returning to growth in the fourth quarter of 2009. The level of employment in the UK is recorded through a complicated series of measures. Figures from the ILO (International Labour Organisation) showed that the number of people without a job, rose by 30,000 in the three months to September, bringing the total unemployed to 2.461 million, which was the smallest rise recorded since the second quarter of 2008. Unemployment levels in the UK now stand at 7.8%, which is 0.2% lower than most economic forecasts.

Lloyds Banking Group has announced that they plan increase the amount of fresh capital that they intend to raise by £1.5 billion, from £21 billion to £22.5 billion. The increase came in response to demands by the bank’s bondholders for a larger allocation of the contingent convertible instruments (CoCos). The news of the interested in CoCos was especially encouraging for the US Federal Reserve who is reportedly in talks with Wall Street executives over whether US financial groups should also use this method to raise capital. In the case of the Lloyds CoCos, they would be convertible if their equity strength falls from its current level of 8.6 per cent to below 5 per cent.

British Airways (BA) has announced that they are in advanced talks with and Spanish airline Iberia over some form of merger. Both companies are expected to hold separate board meetings at the earliest opportunity to discuss final details of the merger

In an official statement, representatives of BA hastened to point out that the meetings would consider the potential transaction, and that firm decisions had yet to been taken, and there were no guarantees that a deal would take place. Iberia has leaked that the deal under discussion would give it 45% and BA 55% of a new merged company. The firms have considered a tie-up for a number of years, and held talks on the issue in July 2008. BA chief executive Willie Walsh has previously said that a merger would help both firms in the current economic climate. Reports of the imminent merger sent British Airways shares higher, climbing 7.5 percent to 215 pence.

Share in telecoms operator BT Group, rose 3.7 per cent to 147 pence after they announced that they will be raising their full-year revenue outlook and dividend forecast for 2009. Thanks to a series of cost cutting measures including cutting back on 15,000 jobs, BT increased their second-quarter earnings to more than £900 million. The positive outlook for BT came as they announced along with their second quarter results that they are to raise their total cost-savings target for 2009/2010 from £1 billion to £1.5 billion.

The world’s largest owner of shopping malls Westfield Group have announced that retail sales in October at their UK centres in the U.K. have risen at the fastest pace in seven years, amounting to 3.7 percent in the three months. The company also reported that the number of stores closing in their centers has also fallen since steadily since the second quarter.

According to a recent statement, Westfield’s London shopping complex, which opened at the height of the global financial crisis last year, has attracted some 20 million visitors and has signed more than 15 new tenants.

Sterling continued to lose ground on Thursday trading falling against all the major currencies, with the notable exception of the Japanese yen.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6553
• Pound/Euro 1.1136
• Pound/Japanese Yen 150.0166
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6842

The FTSE 100 continues to gain strength, up 46 points to 5,276.55. The FTSE 250 also rose, up 175 points to 9,295.92.

In the US, fears continued to be voiced that, "the ‘real’ economy, as opposed to the financial one is still struggling to recover" and that if the government withdrew its stimulus spending measures, the economy could take some major steps backwards. The Dow Jones indexes erratic behaviour over the last few weeks as well as an already depressed job market seems to indicate the fact.

Meanwhile US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner, continue to voice his belief in the importance of a strong dollar, His statement came as the dollar dropped to its 15-month low. The continuing weakness of the World’s staple currency has led to some concern over the future of the dollar in its traditional role in the global economy. According to Geithner, the United States bears a special responsibility for trying to make sure that their global policies will sustain investors in the currency.

His words of comfort helped Wall Street very little, as the Dow Jones lost some of its earlier gains of this week, down 19 points to 10227.92. The NASDAQ made a minor increase, up six points 2157.17.

Warnings continue to come from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the recent rises in oil prices "risks derailing the recovery" if they continue, whilst. Pointing out that demand for the "black gold" itself would slow down if price rises continue in 2010. The price of oil is now around $79 dollars a barrel, representing a rise of 77% so far this year. The IEA "in their monthly report, pointed their finger at China who they say are driving up demand, causing them to revised upwardly revise their forecasts. Overall the organisation predicts a 1.6% increase in demand for oil, up to 86.2 million barrels a day.

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Tags: BA, Bank, Bank of England, Banking, BOE, British airways, British Economy, BT Group, CoCos, Credit Crunch, Currency, Dow Jones, Economy, Employment, Financial News, FTSE, Iberia, IEA, International Energy Agency, International Labour Organisation, Lloyds, Lloyds Banking Group, Lloyds CoCos, Mervyn King, Money, Money Markets, NASDAQ, Office for National Statistics, Recession, Retail, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, Unemployment, US Federal Reserve, US Treasury, Wall Street, Westfield Group, Willie Walsh

The weaker Pound and an insurge of wealthy foreign shoppers wishing to take advantage of the satiation have contributed to a major revival in retail sales in the shopping centres of London during September. The British Retail Consortium who are involved in producing the London Retail Sales Monitor, have announced that retail sales in central London were up by 7.5 percent on September 2008. The largest month-for-month increase in 12 trading months. Even more encouraging, were sales figures released by the New West End Company, who monitor sales from retailers based around the highly exclusive Bond Street, Oxford Street and Regent Street region in the West End of London. There retailer were reporting an increase of 25 percent jump in sales in September when compared to August, as well as a 4.6 per cent increase on September 2008.

Britain’s banks could be in line to pay windfall taxes that could reach punitive levels. if they are unable or unwilling to provide acceptable guarantees that they will discard their long running practices of tax avoidance. In a recent statement, officials of the UK Treasury described speculation that tax raids on the banks under their spotlight was imminent is being unfounded, as well as reports that higher levels of corporation tax would be imposed as “not being currently under consideration”. The major UK banks have been negotiating with the Inland Revenue and the Treasury for some time to ensure that their tax payments adhere “to the spirit of the law rather than the letter”. The “powers that be” are looking for a new approach from the banks, and on that will be in contrast to their approach before the bail out of the financial system late last year, that was largely funded by the British taxpayer..

The Treasury is working on a new tax code with the banks, with a final verdict expected ahead of the chancellor Alistair Darling’s forthcoming pre-Budget report. One Treasury official said: “If the banks were not participating we would need to look at other channels, but at this stage they are playing ball

Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways has announced that he has held "open and frank" talks with union leaders, in order to prevent cabin crew balloting for strike action. Both sides have been involved in a long running conflict regarding BA’s plans to cut 1,700 jobs as well as making further changes to pay and conditions for other members of the BA staff. The union representing the airline’s employees, Unite, has stated that they will have little option but to ballot for industrial action if BA’s changes are imposed on their members. A representative of BA announced that Mr Walsh had written to unite joint leader Derek Simpson after the meeting, while the union declined to comment.

The pound continued its steady rise, despite faltering slightly against the Euro and the Swiss Franc.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6425
• Pound/Euro 1.10969
• Pound/Japanese Yen 147.9728
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6587

The FTSE 100 had a good day, up 91.34 points to 5281.54 The FTSE 250 rose strongly on the day’s trading, up 138.44 points to close on. 9564.64.

Chairman of the US Fed Ben Bernanke announced on Monday that the US and Asia adopt policies that prevent a revival of global economic imbalances as the financial crisis ebbs, and such a move was “extraordinarily urgent”. Bernanke went on to warned that global imbalances, meaning the large gaps between national saving, consumption and investment rates that were reflected in large trade deficits and surpluses needed to be bridged. The US must establish “a sustainable fiscal trajectory anchored by a clear commitment to substantially reduce federal deficits over time”. he continued

The Dow Jones index recovered strongly on Monday’s trading; climbing again above the 10,000 points mark, as encouraging US bank results fuelled optimism for the global economy. The Dow Jones was up .96.28 points to close on 10092.19 The NASDAQ Composite index also recovered all of Friday’s losses, up 19.52 points to close for the day on 2,176.32.

Annual car production in China has topped the 10 million mark for the first time in the industry’s history, with car makers boosting output to meet the ever growing demand. Despite the global downturn in demand for new cars for most of the major car makers, demand for cars is bucking the trend with state incentives, such as tax cuts on small cars, going a long way to boosting sales

The price of oil has continued to rise, mostly on the back of the weak US dollar reaching a new high for 2009. US crude settled up $1.08 at $79.61 in New York trading, while London Brent rose 78 cents to at $77.77

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Tags: Alistair Darling, BA, Bank, Banking, Bond Street, British airways, British Economy, British Pound, British Retail Consortium, British taxpayer, corporation tax, Credit Crunch, Currency, Derek Simpson, Dow Jones, Economy, Financial News, FTSE, Inland Revenue, London Retail Sales Monitor, Money, Money Markets, NASDAQ, New West End Company, Oxford Street, pre-Budget report, Recession, Regent Street, Retail, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, tax avoidance, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, UK treasury, Unite, Weak Pound, West End, Willie Walsh

A leading and influential economic group has predicted that the UK economy did not grow in the third quarter of the year. Contrary to expectations as well as many other financial analysts’ forecasts, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have suggested that gross domestic product (GDP) remained unchanged from July to September 2009. The majority of UK economists have predicted there would be growth in the three-month period, which would end the UK recession, while the NIESR stated that the reason why the UK economy’s failed to register any growth during the quarter was due to weak industrial production in August, especially in the oil industry. The official GDP figures for the third quarter are due to be released on 23 October.

According to market sources, the number of banks who are now prepared to lend for real estate investment has almost doubled over the past six months largely due to improvements and confidence as well as favourable funding conditions.

There are now more than twenty banking bodies reportedly prepared to lend more than £20 million at a time for real estate investments, while there are at least six banks willing to finance property deals of over £100 million. Apparently German banks continue to dominate the real estate investment funding sector, having ample access to funding whilst enjoying the benefits from devalued sterling. The growing numbers of lenders continue to indicate that the property market was opening up to increased activity after reaching a low point in the first half of 2009.

In a fairly drastic cost cutting move, British Airways (BA) have announced their plans to cut 1,700 jobs as well as plans to introduce a two-year pay freeze for cabin crew BA posted heavy losses for their 2008/2009 financial year and forecasts for 2009/2010 predict that their loss making will continue as global airlines continue to struggle. On the announcement, BA stock climbed 3.2 percent to 217 pence. Meanwhile stocks in Europe’s second largest discount airline EasyJet Plc, climbed by 2.4 percent, to 378.9 pence, as the company prepared to report their September passenger statistics.

The makers of Imperial Leather soap and Carex hand wash PZ Cussons announced that they were “cautiously optimistic” on its 2010 outlook as reported strong trading over the past three months. The company said turnover was in line with forecasts for the third quarter and that profits had increased in comparison with the corresponding period of last year.

London equity markets were stronger on Tuesday, despite some late caution as investors awaited details of US earnings season and the surprise announcement from Australia that they will be raising their interest rates

The FTSE 100 rose by 2.26 percent on yesterday’s trading, or 113.65 points to close on 5137.98. The FTSE 250 also continued to move steadily upwards, soaring 218.70 points to finish back over the 9,000 hurdle at 9201.23.

The pound seems to have a permanent stance below $1.60 mark, whilst remaining weak against the rest of the principal currencies.

• Pound/US dollar 1.5898
• Pound/Euro 1.10812
• Pound/Japanese Yen 141.2395
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6351

The Dow Jones index continued to recover from last week’s setbacks, rising yesterday by 131.5 points at 9,731.25. The NASDAQ index also followed suit jumping 35.42 points to finish on 2,103.57.

Australia became the first of the World’s leading industrialised nations n to raise interest rates, with its central bank increasing the official cash rate from 3 to 3.25 per cent. Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said economic conditions in Australia had been “stronger than expected”, while measures of confidence had recovered allowing the country to rates from their 49-year low “emergency” rate.

The price of gold has hit a new all-time high of $1,043.77 an ounce after a decline in the dollar boosted the attractiveness of metals to investors. According to analysts, continuing concerns of higher inflation in the US as its economy recovers was an increased factor in lowering the price of the dollar, further boosting the price of gold

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Tags: BA, Bank, Banking, British airways, British Economy, British Pound, Carex, Credit Crunch, Currency, Dow Jones, EasyJet Plc, Economy, Financial News, FTSE, GDP, Glenn Stevens, Gold, gross domestic product, Imperial Leather, Investments, Money, Money Markets, NASDAQ, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, NIESR, property market, PZ Cussons, Recession, Reserve Bank of Australia, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK Recession

Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana SA or Iberian Airlines as we know them are the Spanish airline who have been planning a merger with money losing British Airways Plc, have announced that the merger looks like being tied-up within a matter of months, according to a recent announcement by a company representative.

The remaining issue to be handled appears to be the U.K. carrier’s considerable pension deficit, which according to BA has widened to be around 1.5 billion pounds.
British Airways, currently Europe’s third largest carrier, recently announced its first full-year loss since 2002. As the global recession continues to bite, it seems that BA, in line with most people carriers, will have no option to put planes in mothballs in an effort to reduce overheads and will severely slash capacity as a result.

Iberia also announced this month that their first-quarter losses had also increased to around 86 million pounds (92.6 million Euros) with increased competition and the stuttering economy being the principal factors in reducing traffic.

With both the UK and US stock markets inactive on Monday, all eyes were on the other markets, where in the European exchanges stocks rose slightly with pharmaceuticals companies helping to offset earlier losses generally caused by the release of weaker than forecasted results from the German business sector.

The pan-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.2 per cent to close on 857.71 points. The Eurofirst 300 has risen by almost a third since early March; however the rally has slowed down considerably this week driven by reports that government debt may be rising at a faster rate than anticipated.

The pound and the dollar were also static yesterday, while the Pound rose a few tenths of a decimal point against both the Yen and the Swiss Franc.
· Pound/US dollar 1.5935
· Pound/Euro 1.1370
· Pound/Japanese Yen 150.5884
· Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7274
On stateside, the Obama administration has come in for some stick. They face considerable pressure to put a hold on the Congress backed “Buy American” which to many smacks of protectionism. Fears that the bill, part of the $787bn US stimulus bill, which stipulates that companies who receive funding through the bill must use only US-manufactured raw materials and finished goods may have a negative effect on export sales.

News from the South Korean stock market has given cause for encouragement after it suffered a collapse following news of North Korea’s controversial nuclear test.
Initially shares in South Korea’s Kospi index fell by as much as 6%, before rebounding strongly to end less than three points lower.

Shock waves were little felt in the rest of the Far East, with Tokyo’s Nikkei index closing up 1.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closing up 0.35%.

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Tags: BA, British airways, British Economy, Financial News, Iberia Airways, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares