Chancellor Alistair Darling will say in his pre-Budget report that the economy performed worse in 2009 than he first predicted, Treasury sources have said.

Darling is expected to say that the UK economy shrank by 4.75% this year – more than the 3.5% originally forecast in the Budget in March.

The adjustment follows the economy’s unexpectedly poor performance in the first three months of the year. The chancellor looks likely to stick to 2010 forecasts of growth between 1-1.5%, despite the emergence of Dubai’s financial problems which now raises fresh fears that UK banks could face more write-downs on bad debts, and chimes with warnings earlier this week from the International Monetary Fund, who said that global banks had only worked through half their toxic assets since the banking crisis broke two years ago. Investors had been hoping the British financial sector had worked through much its toxic debt, which included exposure to America’s sub-prime mortgage market.

Despite this week’s setbacks, economic analysts continue to predict that the UK economy should emerge from recession by the end of the year, with the Northern Ireland and Scotland facing a more challenging recovery. The prediction came as revised gross domestic product (GDP) figures showed the UK recession was shallower than previously thought between July and September. Revised estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a 0.3% fall in UK output in the third quarter, compared with the 0.4% slide originally stated. While UK business confidence surveys on the "mainland" bear out signs of recovery, Northern Ireland business activity continued to fall in October, albeit at the slowest rate since the start of 2008. The reasons apparently are local margins remaining under pressure, is that the manufacturing sector in the province is still reporting a lack of demand and heavy competition in difficult markets. The combination of these factors looks like meaning Northern Ireland will likely lag the UK recovery. Scotland’s growth will continue to lag behind the rest of the UK’s, according to a leading economic think tank. Similar sources also announced that they had observed some "disturbing weaknesses" in the Scottish economy and predicted growth of -4.9% this year and 0.7% in 2010. Job cuts are expected to continue, with the unemployment rate reaching as high as 8% in 2010. The only prescription for growth for both Northern Ireland and Scotland would be to switch to a more export-led economy, exploiting global markets

Jaguar Land Rover had seen its sales rise 23% in the second quarter after its new models were well-received.

Owner Tata Motors said new products such as the upgraded Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Discovery 4 had had successful launches.

Although Jaguar Land Rover made a net loss of £60 million in the July-September quarter, it was much less than the £240 million loss it made a year earlier.

India’s Tata Motors made a net profit of £2.8 million in the third quarter of, 2008, compared with a loss of £127,000 for the same period last year.

Borders U.K., the bookstore chain once owned by U.S.- based Borders Group Inc., has called in administrators after failing to find a buyer for its stores. A total of 1,150 employees are affected, according to the statement.

“All stores currently remain open for business as normal whilst the administrators undertake a review of the company’s affairs and seek a purchaser for all or some of the company’s stores in which there has already been interest,” Philip Duffy, principal administrator announced in a statement.

U.K. media have reported that HMV Group Plc’s Waterstone’s books chain is considering buying some of the stores. A spokesman for HMV declined to comment on this when contacted by Bloomberg News earlier.

The steep advertising downturn pushed U.K. publisher Daily Mail & General Trust PLC’s into a net loss for its full fiscal year, as management focused on cutting costs and its £1.05 billion ($1.76 billion) debt pile, but the company said there are signs that trading conditions are improving.

Daily Mail, which publishes the Daily Mail and its sister Sunday paper and the Metro free-sheet, posted a net loss of £303.4 million for the 12 months ended Oct. 4, compared to zero net profit a year earlier.

According to brokers, Thursday’s activity on the FTSE was very similar to when Lehman Brothers collapsed, warning that Dubai’s problems could be the catalyst for the market to fall further. RBS, which is 70 per owned by the UK taxpayer, fell 7.8 per cent, wiping off £1.73 billion of its market value. Barclays lost 8 per cent, cutting its capitalisation by £2.65 billion. HSBC fell 4.8 per cent losing £6.2 billion of its value and Lloyds Banking Group lost 5.6 per cent, wiping off £1.5 billion.

All in all around £44 billion was wiped off London’s biggest companies amid growing fears the UK financial sector could be heavily exposed to Dubai World, the state-owned conglomerate which yesterday asked for a standstill on its £36 billion debt pile. The FTSE 100 tumbled 170.68 points or more than 3 per cent to 5194.1 in its biggest one-day percentage fall since the market plunged to six-year lows in March. Encouragingly enough, the exchange recovered well on Friday, closing on 5245.73.

The pound declined against the dollar after a drop in stocks across the world prompted investors to sell U.K. assets and on speculation the government will downgrade its forecast for the economy. Sterling slipped to the weakest level since Nov. 3 against the U.S. currency as the MSCI World Index declined for a second day after Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt continued to rattle investors.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6553
• Pound/Euro 1.10996
• Pound/Japanese Yen 142.7188
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6565

US shares have fallen on worries about Dubai’s debt problems, with the Dow Jones ending down 154 points, or 1.5%, at 10,309.92, in a shorter trading day.

It was the first chance for markets in the US to react to news that state-owned Dubai World had asked for more time to repay its debts.

US markets were closed for a holiday on Thursday when other world markets suffered steep losses.

The Dow Jones average dropped 154.58 points on Friday’s trading to close on 10309.92 The NASDAQ lost 37.61 points to close on 2138.44

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Bank, Banking, Barclays, Borders Group Inc, British Economy, British Pound, Daily Mail, Discovery 4, Dow Jones, Dubai World, Economy, Financial News, FTSE, General Trust PLC, HMV Group Plc, International Monetary Fund, Jaguar Land Rover, Lehman Brothers, Lloyds Banking Group, Money, MSCI World Index, NASDAQ, Office for National Statistics, Philip Duffy, pre-Budget report, Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, RBS, Recession, Royal Bank of Scotland, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, Tata Motors, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, Waterstone's

The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has lost its legal battle over bank charges with banks following the shock announcement by the Supreme Court on Wednesday. While the ruling effectively scuppers any chance of reclaiming fees in the foreseeable future it does clear the way for new rules to be drawn up that would limit charges. The Treasury did however stress that if lower bank charges could not be achieved voluntarily then it would consider passing legislation. The OFT’s four-year campaign and two-year legal case to win refunds for those overcharged by their banks after falling into an unauthorized overdraft fallen at the last hurdle. The Supreme Court, in a move that stunned campaigners, went against earlier findings by the High Court and Court of Appeal and decided the OFT did not have the right to assess the charges for fairness in the case

The good news from the U.K. economy is that it shrank in the third quarter less than previously estimated. It is now estimated that gross domestic product probably fell 0.3 percent from the second quarter, which less than the 0.4 percent drop is reported on Oct. 23, The Office for National Statistics will release its second estimate before the weekend.

More than £60 billion was secretly lent by the Bank of England to prevent Royal Bank of Scotland and Halifax Bank of Scotland from failing at the height of the financial crisis last year. In evidence to the Treasury Select Committee, the Bank revealed yesterday that such a catastrophe was averted when it decided "in exceptional circumstances" to act in its traditional role as lender of last resort and extended Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to RBS and HBOS. Meanwhile U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling Wednesday defended authorities’ secret provision of emergency assistance to Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and HBOS during the height of last year’s financial crisis. In a written ministerial statement to parliament, Mr. Darling said any disclosure of the loan at the time would have "seriously" jeopardized financial stability and "the risk to public resources was low" given the quality of the collateral received by the Bank.

Trading on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) was halted for three and a half hours earlier because of technical difficulties.

The LSE said it had been affected by connectivity issues, and at 1033 GMT had placed all orders for shares into an "auction call period".

This allowed traders to put orders to buy or sell shares into the system, ready for when trading restarted.

Normal trading was then able to resume from 1400 GMT.

Big banks will be obliged to disclose how many of their UK employees are paid more than £1 million, if City banker Sir David Walker has his way. Sir David is expected to announce that half of the bonuses paid to bank employees should be deferred for three to five years.

Travelers who book holidays on the internet could receive more financial protection if things go wrong, under plans in a European review.

Consumers who make up their own packages of flights, hotels and car rentals on one website or partner sites could get more protection.

Currently, only those who have booked specific package deals have rights to cancel or refunds if operators go bust. A review will consider help for passengers if airlines collapse.

Spanish investor Jorge Cosmen, the largest stockholder is reported to have boosted his stake in National Express Group Plc, the U.K. bus and rail company three times in as many days. The investor, a company board member, has spent 5.8 million pounds ($9.6 million) snapping up shares since Nov. 20. The third purchase, announced today by National Express, brings his family’s holding to 20 percent. Cosmen, who opposed National Express, wants the London-based company to refinance debt and reevaluate strategy before any rights issue, is apparently yet to decide whether to oppose the stock sale in a Nov. 27 shareholders’ vote.

The pound retreated slightly against the dollar, Swiss franc and the yen, while rising against the Euro.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6506
• Pound/Euro 1.10997
• Pound/Japanese Yen 142.3998
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6556

After trading resumed on the FTSE, the 100 went on to finish the day at 5,194, which was 130 points down on Tuesday’s closing price, while the FTSE 250 rose dropped 200 points to close on 8,880.52. Falls on the FTSE were also felt across Europe, as concerns about the wider impact of state-owned investment company Dubai World asking for a six-month delay on repaying its debts grew.

The US dollar has hit a 14-year low against the Japanese yen with low interest rates in the US making the greenback less attractive to investors.

The dollar slipped to 86.5 yen, its lowest level since July 1995.

The US has indicated it is unconcerned about the dollar’s slide, and will not intervene to strengthen it.

Many traders are swapping dollar holdings for gold as a safer investment in the current uncertain economic climate.

The price of gold is currently at a record high of $1,194.5 an ounce

The Dow Jones average was looking stronger rising 53 points to 10464.5 The NASDAQ also rose thirteen points to finish up on 2176.05

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Bank, Bank Charges, Bank of England, Banking, British Economy, British Pound, Currency, Dow Jones, Dubai World, Economics, Economy, ELA, Emergency Liquidity Assistance, Employment, Financial News, FTSE, Gold, Halifax Bank, HBos, Interest Rates, Jorge Cosmen, legal battle, London Stock Exchange, Money, Money Markets, NASDAQ, National Express Group Plc, Office of Fair Trading, OFT, Overdraft, Overdraft Charges, RBS, Retail, Royal Bank of Scotland, Sir David Walker, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, Supreme Court, Treasury Select Committee, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has predicted that the recovery and growth seen in the second half of 2009 is expected to continue in 2010. Their recent figures show that its 30 member countries, including the US and UK have more than doubled its growth projections for next year. However a spokesman from the OECD warned the developed nations not to expect a smooth ride and that "growth was being held back by still substantial headwinds" and would be restrained for some time in the near future. They went on to explain that some of the very measures that were being used to help the richer nation’s economies to recover might return like a boomerang upon them. The feeling was at the OECD was that the UK, needed to come up with a concrete plan to ease concerns about the stability of their public finances, and that the results that could be achieved through continuing the country’s quantitative easing programme remained uncertain. The UK, which now has overall debt of £825 billion, is set to borrow a record £175 billion over the next two years with further details of how and why due to be set out in Chancellor Darling’s pre-Budget report on 9 December.

US investment bank JP Morgan have announced that they are to complete their take-over of UK stockbroker Cazenove. Morgan are reported to be paying a further £1 billion ($1.67 billion) for the remaining 50% of Cazenove that is not in their hands. JP Morgan and Cazenove reached a joint venture agreement in 2004, where they merged their investment banking operations.

The news that Marks and Spencer have chosen Marc Bolland, current head of Wm Morrison, as its new chief executive, saw a dramatic and immediate shift in fortunes for both companies, at least in stock market terms. Shares in M&S rose 6 per cent to close on 390 pence while Morrisons’ fell by 5 per cent to 281 pence, making for a combined £600 million swing”.

Dutch born Bolland’s appointment puts a long awaited end to the speculation of who will replace incumbent chairman, Sir Stuart Rose, who will remain with the company as part-time chairman until mid-2011.

ITN were expected to reveal the first trading first-ever loss on Thursday as the company launched a set of austerity measures which will be required to put the company back on track. ITN, who produce news bulletins for ITV, as well as for Channel 4, is owned by four media companies, ITV Daily Mail & General Trust, United Business Media and Thomson Reuters, each of whom hold a 20 percent share, except ITV who hold 40 percent. Reasons given for the drop in sales and profit were mainly the recession, which has affected advertising revenues on all commercial broadcasters, and the closure of Setanta Sports News, the news channel operated by the Ireland-based sports channel network that went into administration this year. Revenue from Setanta made up approximately 5 per cent of ITN’s sales in 2008. ITN made a profit of £4.1 million on turnover of £105 million.

Postal and parcel delivery company UK Mail, who only this moth adopted their new trading title from Business Post, have announced a rise in their interim profits, despite of a fall in revenues caused by a recession driven fall in demand. A spokesman for the company pointed out that their parcel business, which holds around a 7 per cent share of the UK market, has witnessed an upturn is sales during the period of postal strikes, as the public began to seek alternatives to Royal Mail’s service. However the company, which also handles around 17 million items of mail a day, said the strikes affected the volumes of mail handled by the company much less significantly than they had hoped for. UK Mail, who relies on the Royal Mail for “last mile” delivery of its sorted post, pointed out that the impact the strikes had been less severe than anticipated.

Sterling lost some of its gains against the major currencies in midweek trading.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6636
• Pound/Euro 1.1163
• Pound/Japanese Yen 148.0862
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6881

The UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 index lost the bulk of its early gains for the week, down 78 points to 5,267.70. The FTSE 250 took its usual midweek tumble down 165 points to 9,237.

New home construction in the US have taken a surprise drop fall in October, down 10.6% to an annual rate of 529,000 homes, making for the lowest level in housing starts since April of this year, Reasons for the decrease in demand was put down to .a fall in demand for both single and family housing.

On the news, the Dow Jones average slumped 105 points to close on 10332.42. The NASDAQ also took a tumble, but for reasons of its own and finished the day on Thursday on 2156.92.

Internet giant America on Line (AOL) have announced that they are to lay off more than 2,000 of their staff , representing one third of their entire work forces when it completes its spinoff from Time Warner, with whom they have been in partnership since 2001. Representatives from Time Warner have stated that the separation will be completed by the end of 2009.

Also cutting jobs are Air France-KLM who plans to cut their work force by cut 1,700 during 2010. Their decision comes after the airline posted a worse than predicted third quarter loss of 147 million Euros (£131 million) the job losses are in addition to the 3,000 already cut in 2009.

Silver, platinum, palladium and copper have reached fresh highs for the year while gold continued to extend its record-breaking run breaching the $1,150 mark, seen as the next key milestone in the rally, to reach a record $1,152.74 an ounce, before easing back to $1,148.

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Tags: Air France-KLM, Alastair Darling, America on Line, AOL, Bolland, British Economy, British Pound, Business Post, Cazenove, copper, Credit Crunch, Currency, Daily Mail, Dow Jones, Economy, Financial News, FTSE, General Trust, Gold, ITN, JP Morgan, M&S, Marc Bolland, Marks and Spencer, Money, Money Markets, NASDAQ, OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, palladium, platinum, quantative easing, Recession, Retail, Royal Mail, Setanta, Silver, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, Stuart Rose, Thomson Reuters, Time Warner, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Mail, UK Recession, United Business Media, WM Morrison

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling now appears likely to give Lloyds the go ahead to test the seriousness of its ambitious £25 billion refinancing plan. Darling’s tacit agreement will be looked upon by city watchers as a definite indication that the chancellor could be prepared to release the bank from its obligations to the government’s toxic asset insurance scheme. It would appear that Darling has concluded that Lloyds’ plan to bring in more private capital is in the public interest. However it would appear that his final decision will only be positive when he is convinced that the market is ready for such a bold initiative. Darling is expected to announce his decision to the Lloyds at the early part of next week. The move will mean that the bank can then begin to appoint underwriters and test the market. Only then will Darling make the final decision and may even withdraw approval for the plan if he concludes the move carries to many risks for the already under siege UK taxpayer.

As expected, the European Union (EU) has approved plans for nationalized bank Northern Rock to be split into two parts, a move that is expected to pave the way for a partial sale of the bank.

One half of the bank, known as the "good" bank, would trade as retail bank holding deposits including some of the Rock’s existing mortgages, as well as lending money to consumers only.

The toxic side of the bank will remain in government hands, whose unenviable task it would be to attempt to salvage as much as the taxpayer’s money tied up there. The chancellor has ruled out the possibility of completing the sale of Northern Rock before the general election, in spite of winning approval from Brussels.

Meanwhile Spanish banking giants Santander continue to clean up on the UK high street. The bank announced that profits during the first nine months of the year for its UK banks have risen by more than a third.

Abbey, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley banks, owned by Santander announced a £1.2 billion profit, up 38% from the same period in 2008.

Debt laden bus and rail operator National Express has wound up their discussions with rival Stagecoach regarding a possible merger. Instead they will press ahead with their plans to mount a rights issue to re-finance the company. Yesterday’s announcement follows weeks of speculation over a possible tie-up between the groups that would have created a transport giant with an estimated worth of £1.7 billion.

Oil and gas supply group BG, announced on Wednesday that their post-tax profits for the third quarter had fallen 39 per cent to £474 million from last year’s £777 million. A spokesman for the company said that the fall in gas and oil prices had been partially offset by advance sales of liquefied natural gas at advantageous prices. Although natural gas has rallied since early September, it had not done as well as crude oil during continued signs of economic recovery.

Sterling continued to rise in value yesterday against the dollar, while rising slightly against the Euro.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6393
• Pound/Euro 1.1131
• Pound/Japanese Yen 148.0908
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6804

London’s FTSE 100 dropped 2.32% or 120.55 points to close on 5080.42. The FTSE 250 plummeted a further 3.19% percent yesterday, down 291.78 points to close on 8849.50

For the first time in half a year, sales of new homes in the US fell as buyers opted for bargains on existing and foreclosed houses. Unexpectedly new home sales fell by 3.6 per cent from August to September, defying economists’ expectations that they would increase. Compared with a year ago, sales of new homes were down by 7.8 per cent, according to commerce department figures

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.21% after news that the annual rate of US new home sales had fallen unexpectedly in September.

At close of trading Wednesday it had fallen 119.48 points to 9762.69. The NASDAQ Composite index also took a tumble down 56.48 points to 2059.61.

It was announced on Wednesday that new orders for durable goods rebounded in September after slumping the prior month, offering another sign that manufacturing activity is stirring in the US

European shares also fell fairly sharply yesterday, largely due to disappointing company results and negative US economic data.

Norway has become the first European country to raise its interest rates since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The country’s central bank raised the cost of borrowing from 1.25% to 1.5% in a move that was widely expected. A spokesman for the bank stated that the increase was necessary due to increases in inflation and recent unemployment figures that were considerably lower than previously projected.

Oil prices dropped by more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday, as the latest US weekly inventories data continued to show supply outstripping demand. All in all the expected recovery in the dollar weighed on investor sentiment towards the commodities market.

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Tags: Abbey, Alastair Darling, Alliance & Leicester, Bank, Banking, BG, Bradford & Bingley, British Economy, British Pound, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Currency, Current Account, Darling, Dow Jones, Economy, Employment, Financial News, FTSE, gas, llo, Lloyds, Lloyds Banking Group, Money, Money Markets, Mortgage, NASDAQ, National Express, Northern Rock, Oil, Recession, Retail, Santander, Savings, Stagecoach, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, Unemployment, Wall Street

There were one or two petted lips around Westminster yesterday in response to governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King’s call for Britain’s biggest banks to be split up to prevent the possibility of a financial crisis of similar proportions to the one that the UK is going through, in the future. Particularly peeved were Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling who even went as far as rebuking. Mr. King for his comments. King was seemingly unfazed at their comments.

According to Terry Duddy, chief executive of Home Retail Group, owners of the Argos and Homebase chains, the rise in VAT due on January 1 could act as a major for sales of large value items in the weeks leading up to the increase. Whilst announcing that the company had returned to profit in the six months to August 29, , Duddy said went on to announce a rise in consumer confidence and that his company was more optimistic about the outlook for the fourth quarter.

Chocolate kings, Cadbury have subtly increased the pressure on Kraft to raise its proposed £10 billion ($16.6billion) takeover offer. They did so through reporting unexpectedly strong third-quarter trading figures, surpassing even the toughest analysts’ expectations, The Company have succeeded in raising its full-year revenue targets to the “middle” of its 4-6 per cent goal range. Cadbury announced quarterly revenue growth of 7 per cent, which they claimed had been achieved by increasing prices and profit margins, despite a fall in turnover for the period of percent. Correspondingly, Cadbury had made considerable efforts to cut costs and reduce market spending. Since Kraft announced its offer proposal in early September, indications are that investors expect the US food group to pay at least 800 pence per share, while the current cash and shares proposal values Cadbury’s equity at 731pence a share. In the light of the recent results, some investment banks have revalued the target price on Cadbury to 900 pence, however a Kraft offer at this level is considered unlikely, unless counter-bidders suddenly emerge. The consensus is that Kraft will succeed with their offer, if it comes back with a 50-50 split of cash and stock bid of around 825 pence per Cadbury share. Kraft are understood to be considering returning with a formal offer but may wait until after its third-quarter results on November 3, while the UK Takeover Panel has set Kraft a final deadline of November 9 to make a formal offer.

Sterling continued its steady rise against the ever weakening dollar, recovering against the Swiss Franc. whilst faltering against the Euro.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6606
• Pound/Euro 1.1093
• Pound/Japanese Yen 151.6918
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.6587

The FTSE 100 lost out on some of yesterday’s gains, down 33.79 points to close on 5257.85 The FTSE 250 25 shed all of the previous days gains. Down 143.60 points to close on.9421,04

Morgan Stanley has returned to profit after three quarterly losses in a row, after reporting a net income of £457m in the third quarter of 2008. The bank’s investment banking division fared particularly well with underwriting revenues up 74% from 2008 levels. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo, the country’s fourth-largest bank, reported record $3.2bn profits for the quarter, reporting that revenues from mortgages and consumer credit had surged.

Despite that positive news, the Dow Jones was down for the second consecutive day, yesterday by 92.12 points to crash below the ten thousand points on 9949.36. The NASDAQ Composite index also continued to fall, this time by 12.74 points to close on 2,150.73.

Recent reports continue to speculate that US companies who received billions of dollars of government aid in the financial crisis are to be forced to cut any excessive salary packages awarded to their leading executives. Of the seven companies that received the highest aid from the US Treasury will be obliged to reduce the basic salaries of their 25 best-paid employees, by up to nine tenths of the salary packages, while each firm’s 125 top earners would be see their pay slip cut in half, under the US government plan. There has been widespread outrage in the US over the high level of bonuses paid by firms that not so long ago were forced top go to the government cap in hand and ask for government help to stave of bankruptcy .

Figures just published confirm that China has exceeded its target for economic growth in the third quarter, for the first time this year. Chinese government figures show year on year GDP growth was up 8.9% from 7.9% in the previous quarter. Chinese officials have also said they are sure they will reach their full year target of 8% for economic growth, with the economy grewing by 7.7% in the nine months to September.

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Argos, Bank of England, Banking, British Economy, British Pound, Brown, Cadbury, Currency, Darling, Dow Jones, Economics, Economy, Employment, Financial News, FTSE, Global Credit Crisis, Gordon Brown, Home Retail Group, Homebase, Kraft, Mervyn King, Money, Money Management, Money Markets, Morgan Stanley, NASDAQ, Recession, Terry Duddy, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, US Treasury, Wells Fargo

It appears likely that the UK government will not agree to underwrite the Lloyds Banking Group’s proposed rights issue. This development, if it transpires, could potentially stall the partially state-owned bank’s efforts to raise sufficient capital to allow them not to participate in the government backed toxic asset insurance programme. In the long term, the government is expected to participate in the planned rights issue, although chancellor Alistair Darling, chancellor is keeping tight lipped on the subject, for the meantime. Analysts have predicted that Darling would not be interested the government would not be willing to underwrite the rights issue, so as not to be seen to be making a commitment to buy any shares that remained unsold. However the feeling in the markets is that Darling and co has to be seen to be backing the issue, in order not to send out a negative impression

Britain’s largest pub owner Punch Taverns, have announced a £406 million annual loss, largely attributed to the writing down the value of its recession-hit property portfolio by 11 per cent. A spokesman for the company also stated that trading was not showing significant signs of improvement for the first seven weeks of its new financial year, a fact that should have a negative effect on the company’s future. On the announcement., shares in Punch plummeted by 16.6 per cent to close at 96.65p.Punch owns more than 7,500 pubs, that are principally leased to semi-independent publicans who are obliged to buy all their beers through Punch as well as paying them rent.

Shares in National Express plunged more than 30 per cent on Friday after the Spanish-led consortium bidding for the bus and rail operator withdrew its £765m takeover offer. The Cosmen family, who already own an 18.5 per cent stake in National Express, along with the private equity firm CVC, had been due to make a formal offer.

The rise in UK unemployment slowed in the three months to August, showing signs that the job losses may be slowing down as the economy continues to show signs of recovery. The number of people out of work rose 88,000 to 2.47 million, compared with the previous three months, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.9 per cent of the total UK workforce. This figure contrasts well with 9.8 per cent in the US and the 9.1 per cent average in the European Union member countries.

The Pound continued it steady improvement against the major currencies.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6332
• Pound/Euro 1.10956
• Pound/Japanese Yen 149.048
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.665

Two of the major Wall Street banks have announced profits for the third quarter that was above market analyst’s expectations.

Goldman Sachs’ announced profits for the period of £1.96billion, four times what they earned for the same period in 2008.

Profits for the Citigroup also grew. However their potential profits were of were dented by the poor results of their high street banking operation, reaching only £65 million for the quarter.

US stock markets hit fresh 2009 highs on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reclaiming the 10,000 mark, after a smaller-than-expected decline in retail sales and strong earnings at a leading bank.

Financial, industrial and materials stocks boosted the market while the telecoms sector was a laggard.

The Dow Jones index continued to consolidate itself above the 10,000 points standard, up 47.08 points to 10062.94 while the Nasdaq Composite index rose 1.5 per cent to 2,172.2

Internet super –power Google has reported its highest quarterly profit, providing further indications that the online advertising market is in a healthy situation. Google reported a £1billion net profit for the third quarter, a rise of 27% for the same period in 2008.

Also on the up are US computer hardware giant IBM, who reported profits for the same period of around £2 billion, an improvement of 14% on last year.

US crude prices reached their highest levels for the year while gold extended its record-breaking run, passing the $75-a-barrel mark at one point during the day’s trading. This news came after analysts predicted that crude prices appeared ready to ready to increase after remaining consistent for the last six months. Forecasts are that demands for leading up to Christmas, will push oil prices up.

Meanwhile the price of gold reached a record $1,070.40 ounce later slipping back to $1,069.

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Banking, British Economy, British Pound, Citigroup, Cosmen family, Credit Crunch, Currency, CVC, Dow Jones, Economy, Employment, Financial News, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Google, IBM, Lloyds, Lloyds Banking Group, Money, Money Markets, NASDAQ, National Express, Punch Taverns, Recession, Retail, Stock Markets, Stocks and shares, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, UK unemployment, US stock market, Wall Street

It now appears that the global economy is recovering at a much faster pace than many expected it would. However it appears that making up the rear, and probably by a distance, will be the UK economy that just can’t seem to shake itself out of the doldrums.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) the UK economy is even liable to contact by 4.7% this year, a scenario which is much worse than predicted by the UK Treasury who called the rate of decline at 3.5% decline.

The OECD predicts that both the US and the Eurozone to officially call and end top their recessions by the end of the third quarter, encouraged by a series of positive financial indicators in recent months.

.Meanwhile UK financial analysts explain that the UK stodgy economy has been brought about by the fall in the growth for 2009, which has been driven entirely driven by to terribly negative downturns in fourth-quarter 2008 and first-quarter 2009, while forecasts for the UK in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 are, in fact, slightly better than were originally predicted. However they are not sufficient to pull the UK out of the recession.

Meanwhile UK Chancellor, Alastair Darling, forever thinking one move ahead, fears that Germany and France, having returned to a position of economic growth, will begin to reduce their stimulus spending.

Darling is determined to push the G20 nations to take whatever measures necessary to combat unemployment. He expects them to take similar measures to Britain’s £5 billion jobs package, as he is concerned that if the stimulus package is pulled away too soon, the return to growth might fizzle out.

Chancellor Darling is due to attend a meeting of G20 finance ministers in London on Friday and Saturday, prior to a global recovery debate to be held in Pittsburgh in three weeks, where he and Prime Minister Gordon Brown will be in attendance

Recent reports have shown that the service sector expanded at a faster rate in August than expected, adding further hope that the economy is recovering, albeit slowly.

This piece of positive news was offset by a warning from the financially embattled West Yorkshire Welcome Financial Services that the company may have to shed a further 500 jobs as it continues its battle for survival.

Yorkshire based Cattles, who own the company, are burdened by debts of over £2.4 billion and are under scrutiny due to accounting irregularities, have announce plans to close 30 of its 180 Welcome branches as well as reducing the number of employees in their s sales and support teams.

Cattles have already closed its Welcome Car Finance car loans business cutting more than 1,000 jobs.

The company said it remains in negotiations with key creditors about a deal that would give it breathing space on the repayment of its debt

Deutsche Telekom have made no secret that they are interested in offloading their UK mobile phone unit T-Mobile UK, and have begun talks with the UK’s Vodafone, France Telecom, and Telefónica of Spain in hope of completing a rapid sale. One of the possibilities being discussed is a possible merger between T-Mobile UK and France Telecom’s Orange UK, a possibility suggested by Telecom. Representatives of Deutsche Telekom are seemingly hopeful that significant progress can be made by mid to late-October.

Electrical goods retailer DSG International were so anxious to withdraw from the Polish market that they sold off their interest there for a nominal €1, just three months after retreating from Hungary leaving a single Euro note there also. DSG have enjoyed considerably more success in the Nordic region however that is partially offsetting a continued weak performance in the UK and Ireland, where DSG operations Curries, PC World and Dixons electric goods retailing chains. Shares in DSG rose by 0.59 pence to 27.58 pence on the news.

Gains on London equity markets faded by the close on Thursday as falling oil and drug stocks offset gains for miners and financial stocks.

The FTSE 100 index ended a further 20.80 points lower at 4,796.75. Meanwhile the FTSE 250 made up for most of Wednesday’s reverses, rising 84.87 points to close on 8,604.80

The pound climbed to its highest level for a week on Thursday after a survey of the UK services sector raised some hopes that the country’s economy could return to growth in the third quarter.

• Pound/US dollar 1.6322
• Pound/Euro 1.1454
• Pound/Japanese Yen 151.1341
• Pound/Swiss Franc 1.7338

On Wall Street, the markets continued to be relatively stable, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 11.86 points to close on 9292.53 while the NASDAQ Composite index rose a mere 5.94 points to close on 1973.01

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Banking, British Economy, British Pound, Cattles, Curries, Deutsche Telekom, Dixons, DSG, Economy, Employment, Financial News, financial recovery, France Telecom, FTSE, Global Economy, Gordon Brown, Money Markets, NASDAQ, OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, PC World, Recession, T-Mobile UK, Telefónica, UK Banks, UK Economy, UK government, UK Recession, UK treasury, Unemployment, Vodafone, Wall Street

Insurance companies in the UK are fearful that they risk under-capitalisation and will be forced to raise at least a further £50 billion in equity if legislation being debated by the European council is passed: rules that will lead to a dramatic increase in premium rates.

Leading figures in the UK industry, as well as representatives of the Association of British Insurers (ABI) trade body, have written a strong letter to UK Chancellor of the Exchequer warning that the extreme measures proposed could destabilise the industry, not only in the UK, but across all of Europe.

The letter urged Mr. Darling to intervene and to approach his colleagues at the European Commission over the threat, explaining that their new and unwelcome legislation might cause irreparable damage to the industry and its customers.

ABI director-general Stephen Haddrill explained in his letter to Alastair Darling that the new proposals require that insurance companies in the UK alone would need to increase their working capital and their reserves by £30 billion in order to reach a £70 billion minimum figure. Insurance companies and associations throughout Europe who are legislated by the European Commission would be required to raise similar amounts.

Haddrill went on to explain in his letter that in the UK, the impact of abiding by such legislation is like the equivalent of raising fresh equity capital that equals the industry’s total current market capitalization that is now more than £50 billion. If the legislation is passed, fears are that the insurance industry will be unable to raise the additional equity and this ultimately could lead to the collapse of the insurance industry, a situation that is untenable.

The new rules, laid out in the Commission’s “Solvency II” directive, are scheduled to come into force in 2012, with implementation standards due to be set by the end of 2010. The directive’s intention is to improve transparency in the insurance industry, as well as establishing standardised capital requirements for the insurance industry across the European Union.

However insurers in the UK and across mainland Europe are convinced that the regulators are inclined to place insurance companies in the same category as banks, even though the insurance industry has weathered the financial downturn fairly well.

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Association of British Insurers, British Economy, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Economics, Economy, European Commission, Financial News, Insurance, Insurance companies, Insurance premiums, Money, Stephen Haddrill, UK Economy, UK government

UK families who have just lost a loved one seem likely to be penalized if they are late in paying inheritance tax on their estate. It’s a move that is difficult to take on board even for the most cynical and which, at its best, will earn the Treasury a mere £10 million annually. One wonders if Brown and Darling’s public relations people are aware of this forthcoming legislation; if passed, it will do even more damage to their already tarnished reputation – and this with a general election looking increasingly likely for the spring of 2010.

Reports have it that the UK Government is set to levy a 3 per cent annual interest charge on inheritance taxes that are submitted later than a certain time scale after a person passes away and the estate has been dissolved. Additionally, the tax man will be living up to his heartless image by reducing the rate of interest traditionally paid when any overpayment of inheritance tax is returned to the estate.

Government critics were forming a line to condemn what they described as a desperate, heartless move by Brown’s obviously hard-pressed government. Currently the laws pertaining to inheritance tax stipulate that where estates have a value of £325,000 or more, the trustees must submit the inheritance tax within six months of the death, on the taxable residue. If they fail to do so, the estate is charged a minimal interest of 1% annually until the tax was remitted. The Labour government even displayed some unusual compassion by cutting the rate to zero, and as recently as March of this year, showed an understanding that most estates are based around properties which were and still are difficult to dispose of under the prevailing market conditions.

From the coming September, late payments are to be charged at 2.5 percentage points above the Bank of England base, which is now sitting on the historic low rate of 0.5 per cent, with the interest that HM Revenue & Customs due to pay on refunds scheduled to be one point below the Bank‘s rate, although it cannot go below the 0.5 percent level. It seems likely that many executors will find themselves with no option but to pay the interest rather than offload a property at below-market prices, which will be, for many, a bitter pill to swallow.

In the most recent figures available the Treasury announced that it expects to collect around £2.2 billion in inheritance tax for the current tax year, with late payment interest amounting to a mere £10 million.

What next, a nation asks, of Gordon and Alastair?

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Bank of England, British Economy, Economy, Financial News, Gordon Brown, HM Revenue & Customs, inheritance tax, Interest Rates, Money, Savings, Tax, UK government

Recent reports have it that the injection of public money that is supposed to pump new life into the construction industry is just not making it. Construction projects across the UK lay abandoned and uncompleted sector, glaring evidence that the sharpest contraction that the building sector has ever known looks a long way from ending.

According to a recent survey carried out on behalf of the industry, the UK government pledge to re-programme more than £3 billion of publicly owned construction projects , that were due to begin in 2010 and 2011 to this year, have failed to materialise as yet. The idea of bringing these projects forward was to offset that painful lack of new building starts in the private sector.

However a recent report from the Construction Products Association revealed that a nationwide cross section of their members reported that instead of the promised increase in new projects, even existing construction projects have been mothballed by the UK government as funding dries up. These projects include important and much needed public works including schools, hospitals road works and general infrastructure, had found public work had declined over the past year. Of the civil engineering and building companies contributing to the survey, 47 per cent of them reported lower work rates in the first quarter of 2009. Construction companies involved in building social housing reported a fall of project completions 27 percent compared to last year.

According to a spokesman for the UK Contractor’s Group, the government stimuli that was promised in Darling’s budget and pre-budget reports have so far failed to appear and their absence is having a very distinct impact on the UK construction industry, which has been hardest hit by the recession. The sector accounts for about 8 per cent of UK output and a similar percentage of jobs.

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Tags: Alastair Darling, Alistair Darling, British Economy, Budget, Construction Industry, Construction Products Association, Credit Crunch, Economy, Employment, Recession, UK Contractor’s Group, UK Credit Cards, UK government, UK Recession