RBS predicts that UK property prices still have far to fall. Can you believe them?

August 27th, 2009 by tom | Filed under Central banks, Daily News, Debt, Money Management, Mortgages, Recession.

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For a bank that succeeded in breaking the UK record for corporate losses within a financial year, you would think that the Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) would keep a low profile when it comes to making financial predictions. But not the RBS. And the prediction that they have come up with is nothing less than controversial, as well appearing to be far away from what actually appears to be happening on the UK street.

It appears that a recent survey ordered by the RBS, and paid for by the UK taxpayer, predicts that U.K. house prices will plunge by a further 12.7 percent before reaching rock bottom.

UK properties, which have already plummeted in value by 15 percent since the global economy collapsed in October 2007, to an average of around £220,000, will fall a further £20,000 if RBS’s survey is to be taken seriously.

It goes without saying that the RBS survey contradicts just about every report and survey commissioned during the last quarter, as well as physical evidence showing that the number of mortgage applications is on the increase, as the UK economy slowly but surely pulls itself out of the worst financial downturn the country has seen since World War Two.

According to the Nationwide Building Society, property prices rose for a third consecutive month in July to a fourteen month high, while the highly objective and respected Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors announced earlier this month that prices will actually increase this year.

In the U.S., where the subprime mortgage collapse actually sparked the global recession, the housing market is already on the increase, with sales of existing homes jumping 7.2 percent in July, to the highest level since August 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The question still remains: Who do you believe?

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