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Darling’s budget sparks off election fever

March 29th, 2010 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

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Much as he tried to keep a low profile on the subject, Chancellor Alistair Darling’s budget speech on Wednesday had a definite pre-election feel to it as were most of the measures taken, with the useful suspects of cigarettes, spirits and petrol taking their usual pounding, but to varying degrees.

No sooner than Darling closed his famous red briefcase,

Shadow chancellor George Osborne launched his expected attack, describing Labour’s Budget as being empty and lacking in vision.

In his speech the Chancellor was not slow to point out that Labour’s policies were "bearing fruit" and expressed what appeared to be genuine concerns that if the Tories should get into power their spending cut plans could send the UK back into a much feared "double dip recession".

The Liberal Democrats, who obviously felt that they had to add something to the debate, chipped in with "Labour and the Tories are both in denial about the scale of spending cuts needed".

In his budget speech, Darling did announce that the government will need to borrow less than expected this year to plug the gap in the UK’s finances, with

Net borrowing for the financial year expected to total £167 billion, down from the £178 billion previously forecast. Borrowing this year is still expected to be at a record high – equivalent to 11.8% of GDP.

On the downside, Darling also downgraded his growth forecast for the UK economy.

Fuel duty will rise more slowly than previously planned, with a previously announced 3% rise in fuel duty l now be staggered, with a 1% rise in April, a further 1% rise in October, and then again in January. 2011, with phasing the increase rather than raising fuel duty by 3% immediately will cost £550 million.

UK banks received a number of mentions in Darling’s speech some of which were even favourable. The general underlying theme was that the UK taxpayer will be looking to see the banks move back to profit while increasing their support the economic recovery and improve financial expansion.

Alistair Darling noted that £2 billion had been raised through the 50 per cent one off "super tax" on bankers’ bonuses over £25,000, making for a 400% increase of the original forecast of £550 million. The windfall will largely be spent on further measures to stimulate the economy as well as some to be set aside to subsidies university places.

Other interesting snippets from the budget were that the government will allow tax breaks for companies who run zero-emission cars. Currently employees with a company vehicle for private use are required to pay a tax charge, with the exception of electrically propelled cars. However, the government has pledged to expand the exemption to cover "green cars" with these incentives to come into effect after April 6. Darling also threw in the information that the scheme to fund the deployment of superfast broadband looks likely to cost the industry and the consumer much more than expected, with every telecommunication line be subject to a monthly 50 pence levy on landlines. The government claims the new tax is necessary to ensure superfast broadband reaches suburban and rural areas.

It also appears that in order to partly fund the Budget’s 2.5 billion pound package for small firms, Darling intends to switch £230 million pounds of spending for 2010-11 from the departments for business and transport. The department for business said 1£50 million pounds will be transferred, largely at the expense of the £950 million pound strategic investment fund, which is supposed to provide state financing for strategic growth sectors, such as the civil nuclear industry.

Returning to reality, the UK’s two rail trade unions have announced their plans for four days of strikes to kick-off two days after Easter. If the industrial action from the RMT and the Transport Salaried Staff’s Association does transpire , it could see the UK hold its first national rail strike since the system’s privatisation. However, there is a strong possibility that the strikes will be called off, with negotiations with National Rail, the infrastructure owner, already well under way. .

U.K. engineering-services firm Babcock International have announced their plans to acquire the VT Group for around £1.33 billion pounds, in a mix of cash and stock. The announcement comes after two previous bids had been rejected.

Babcock is to pay 361.6 pence in cash and 0.701 of its own shares for every share in VT Group. As the sale was concluded, the offer was valued at 734.9 pence a share, meaning that Babcock paid a 39% premium to the average closing price over the month VT investors will hold around 36% of the combined company once the deal is completed. On the news shares in VT Group rose 4.4% on the FTSE to 721 pence, while Babcock also posted strong gains, rising 3.8% to 553 pence. A spokesman for Babcock said that they expect the deal to boost their earnings significantly in the first full year after completion.

The pound continues to be a problematic issue in the Forex markets. It closed On Thursday on $1.4863 while the Euro rose a little to on €1.1143.

The FTSE 100 index seemed to be pushed forward by Darling’s budget as well as increased optimism on Greece. It closed up 54 points to 5,727.63.

The House of Representatives put the finishing touches on the overhaul of Obama’s pet Health Care bill by passing a companion package that would make insurance more affordable, raise taxes on the wealthy and close a gap for prescription drug coverage for seniors. The Senate approved the package earlier in the day, which means that it now goes to Obama to sign.

The votes concluded a yearlong political struggle that tied up lawmakers, as well as making for a noticeable dent in Obama’s popularity

However passing the Health Care bill might be causing some problems on Wall Street. The Dow Jones retreated a little after a week of impressive gains; down by 377 points to close on 10841.21 The NASDAQ also dropped 18 points to 2397.41.

Greece seems to be out of trouble, at least for the time being. All of the 16 Eurozone member countries have finally come up with their backing for a financing plan, with some of the funds coming from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The loan will total €22 billion (£20billion), with the condition that it is only to be used if normal market lending facilities to Greece will dry up. According to French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the Eurozone nations would grant bilateral loans, totalling some two-thirds of the funding,

Greek PM George Papandreou was quoted as saying that it was "a very satisfactory" move.

Also breathing sighs of relief are the owners of the Dubai World investment vehicle who have just been granted a £6.4 billion ($9.5 billion) loan help it’s to restructure their debt burden from the Dubai government

Dubai World has presented a plan to restructure $ 23.5 billion of debt to its creditors, with the proposal including converting almost a quarter of the debt into equity. Creditors have now to decide on whether to accept the plan, with analysts predicting that it is as good as it gets. The troubled company stunned global markets in November last year when it asked for a six-month delay on debt repayments.

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Why not extend the cash for cars scheme to include washing machines: ask the major UK high street retail chains.

August 20th, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

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In a move that might be totally brazen or financially brilliant, retailers in the UK have called on Business Secretary Peter Mandelson to extend the cash for clunkers scheme to the "white goods" industry. The initiative, sponsored by the British Retail Consortium (BRA), would like to see families be given proportionally similar cash incentives that will allow British families to scrap their electricity guzzling household appliances which will not only be less problematic but also friendlier for the environment.

The BRA has suggested that the subsidies be applied to such day to day household electric appliances such as washing machines, driers, fridges and freezers. To add weight to their argument the BRA announced that in the UK today there are more than 15 million fridges, freezers and washing machines that were purchased in the 1990s and by doing away with them, carbon dioxide emissions could be reduced by almost one and half million tons a year by the end of the next decade. The list of logical advantages for backing the initiative is long and considerable, but there is one major stumbling block to the argument.

Most of the consumer electrical goods are manufactured outside of the UK, meaning that the initiative would be useless for the manufacturing sector. That explains why the initiative for the "cash for electrical goods" comes from the retailing sector, saying that not only would it help Britain get greener but it would also provide the pressure to give the electrical retailing sector a much needed boost after almost two years of financial instability.

The BRA calculates the reform would cost the UK Treasury slightly over £500 million a year, for at least the next two years.

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If the Conservatives get in, its goodbye to the FSA

July 21st, 2009 by tom | 0 Comments | Filed in Daily News, Global Credit Crisis, Recession, UK Banks, Uncategorized

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Based on the assumption that a new broom will always sweep clean, and the UK financial system is certainly in need of a very large broom, comes the announcement from Shadow Chancellor” George Osborne, who is also active as financial spokesman for the Conservative Party, that the first steps that they would take if and probably when the Conservatives get into power is to dismantle Britain’s system of financial regulation that proved to be highly unsuccessful and return power to the Bank of England, which they claim would avoid a repeat of the current banking crisis.

The Financial Services Authority was established only ten years ago by Gordon Brown when he was UK Chancellor of the Exchequer to act as supervisory role in handling the affairs of the major banks, building societies as well as other major UK financial institutions. It would be a brave man indeed who would say that the FSA covered them in glory during this period, and it would be understandable that David Cameron and George Osborne would like to see the Authority dispatched to the history books.

What Cameron and Osborne would like to see is a return to overall authority of the UK financial system by the "old lady of Threadneedle Street" otherwise known as the Bank of England? Bank Governor, Mervin King is reportedly acting a little coy on the suggestion, but the general impression is that he would be as pleased as anyone to see the FSA disappear of into the sunset.

According to a brief manifesto presented by Messrs. Cameron and Osborne at a Press Conference on Sunday, in addition to the BOE, a Consumer Protection Agency would be formed with the role of handling some of the day to day problems in establishing the new framework.

The Conservatives hope that a new and more powerful central bank would be more capable of monitoring the health of the financial system, as well as setting capital requirements and leverage limits for the banks, and prevent the risk taking, profit hunting and bonus scalping policies of the past that brought the UK banking system to its knees. Only time will tell.

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Alistair is told to start realising some assets of the shareholder owned banks.

May 22nd, 2009 by admin | 0 Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

government1UK Chancellor, Alistair Darling expects to receive the go ahead that they UK will be recipients of some much needed financial aid within the coming weeks from the European Commission. However with the aid will come some conditions, particularly that they the commission expects to seek the shrinking of assets in the partially state owned Lloyds Banking Group.

Officials from the UK Treasury strongly suspect that the Brussels based commission could stipulate a reduction in asset holdings or agree to an even more unacceptable situation where the EEC will have a say on the running of the bank in the future.

Lloyds management team have admitted that these are real possibilities and have even stated them in writing in a tender issued on Wednesday as part of its £4billion request offer.

Talks between officials at the UK Treasury Department and European Commission officials in Brussels have been taking place for the last few weeks, and appear to be drawing close to the point where serious decisions have to be made.

Lloyds’ warning underscores the new and uncertain situation that state owned banks will have to face for the foreseeable future, with not only Lloyds but also the Royal Bank of Scotland having to come to terms with being part of a completely different picture.

Under European Union rules, companies (even banks) that have been the recipients of government aid are required to restructure their balance sheets and their assets, toxic or otherwise, to offset any competitive edges or advantages stemming from the assistance that they have received.

UK Chancellor, Alistair Darling and Prime Minister Gordon Brown have consistently borrowed to pay for rescuing banks that have reported around eighty billion pounds in losses and asset write-downs since 2007.
Till now, the government pledged has pledged around forty billion pounds in order to re-finance banks whilst guaranteeing hundreds of billions of pounds worth of loans, some of which are “highly toxic”

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Spare a thought for Richard, Bill and don’t forget Roman

March 12th, 2009 by admin | 0 Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

The average UK citizen has been ravaged by the current financial situation and spend a lot of the time trying just to make ends meet till things get back to normal. There must have been moments of despair when all of us have said to ourselves, if only I was as rich as Sir Richard Branson, Roman Abramovich or the ultimate multi billionaire, Bill Gates.

However, those out there who are eating themselves up for those mega-rich people take a moment and spare a thought for them too. For they too have seen their considerable fortunes shrink considerably in the last twelve months. And when their fortunes shrink, we are talking about billions.

A recent report on the failing fortunes of the top ten of the UK. Wealthy reports that their fortunes have dwindled on average by 25% in 2008.

Among the biggest losers on the list of the biggest losers are entrepreneurs Sir Richard Branson and Sir Philip Green whose net worth has taken a very major tumble. However this would appear to be small change when you consider the rise and fall of Roman Abramovich, the London based Russian born oligarch. Reliable information has it that twelve months ago Abramovich enjoyed a net worth of $23.5 billion, making him the second richest person residing in the UK at that time, and the fifteenth richest person in the world. Only a year later his fortune is estimated to have crashed to around $15billion dollars, a loss of more close to 40% of its value. It’s no wonder that one of Abramovich’s favourite playthings, Chelsea FC is looking a little frayed around the edges these days.

Yet the UK citizen might take some little comfort in the fact that these reversals in fortunes are not being confined to the UK. Figures now show that even the number of people who fell into the category of billionaires have fallen from over eleven hundred in 2008 to less than eight hundred in March 2009.

Among the mega billionaires, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet both succeeded in losing enough money to finance a small country. In any event they were planning to devote their time and most of their massive personal fortunes to charity, little suspecting that they might become one themselves. While the chances seem remote, if they continue to lose money at the rate they did last year, it could happen, although it might take a while.

On the global list of fallen billionaires, Anil Ambani from India took the hardest thump. This time last year he was estimated to be the sixth wealthiest man on the planet with a net worth of close to $32billion. Today his fortune has sunk to a paltry $10 billion and even worse he has to face the ignominy of being 34th on the list of the World’s wealthiest people.

So take a moment to consider our position and w take comfort in the fact that the downturn has affected us all.

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City giants axe more jobs

December 4th, 2008 by jamie | 0 Comments | Filed in Daily News, Debt, Money Management, Recession, Stocks and shares, Uncategorized

The credit crunch fall-out continues with the axing of more banking and financial sector jobs in London.

Credit Suisse is cutting 650 jobs and top executives have lost their bonuses after the bank lost £1.1 billion in the last quarter.

Japanese finance house Nomura is cutting another 1,000 jobs in the City.

Nomura bought the European arm of the US bank Lehman Brothers that failed in September.

Barclays Bank, buyers of Lehman’s US operations, is shedding 3,000 jobs there.

Back in London, Lloyds TSB is backing small businesses through the recession by promising passing on base rate cuts and agreeing any reasonable request for short-term finance.

The promise follows ‘full and frank’ discussions with the Government as the bank prepares to raise capital through a government-backed share placing and takes over HBOS in a move that is likely to leave the government as a significant shareholder.

Lloyds has already agreed to maintain lending to small businesses as a condition of receiving the government’s capital injection.

Royal Bank of Scotland – owner of NatWest – that has the Government as a majority stakeholder already, made a similar commitment not to increase overdraft rates for small businesses.

HSBC said the bank already offered all of the commitments pledged by Lloyds to its small business customers. Barclays said it had lent more money to small business this year than last and new lending was up by more than 20 per cent year-on-year.

On the high street, Morrison’s is bucking the trend with an 8.1 % rise in sales, beating the market leader Tesco – that announced a measly 2% increase earlier in the week.

London equities were moved higher as traders awaited expected rate cuts from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

The FTSE 100 rose 1.3 per cent to 4,222.35, a further advance of 1.3 per cent coming after a 47-point increase over the previous session. In New York, the DOW also closed up 51.82 at 8592.


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OBAMA On Foreign Policy

November 11th, 2008 by admin | 0 Comments | Filed in Daily News, Uncategorized

With the gruelling 21 month US election campaign over (gruelling for us as well as the candidates), Barak Obama, the history making African American has been elected as the first black president in history as expected by bookies, pollsters and as hoped for by a lot of people outside of the US. What will his election mean to the world?

Obama comes from an African American generation that witnessed Dr Martin Luther King, Malcolm X and a host of other domestic civil rights leaders. The son of a Kenyan father and American mother, Obama was born in Hawaii in 1961.

After his parents’ divorce, his mother remarried and he lived in Indonesia for several years.

He later obtained his degree in New York and spent several years working for church groups assisting the poor in Chicago in the mid western state of Illinois.

Obama eventually, like several other presidential candidates, entered the legal profession, becoming the first African-American president of the prestigious Harvard Law Review while obtaining his law degree.

He then returned to Chicago, teaching and working as a civil rights lawyer before entering the Illinois state senate in 1997.

Firstly, those in most immediate need of respite from the US and its Empire building military machine, Iraqis, aren’t holding their breath for a let up in what many Iraqis now consider an occupation.

“We don’t expect any change to happen overnight or any hasty change in U.S. policy and commitment toward Iraq,” Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told Al-Arabiyah TV moments after Obama claimed victory over Republican John McCain.

But he acknowledged that Obama “will not have the same enthusiasm and momentum for this situation” in Iraq as Bush.

Obama’s foreign policy on Israel has comforted many nervous Israeli’s as his Muslim background send shivers up spines in Jerusalem, but he calmed all jitters by telling APAIC, a highly influential group of pro Israel lobby group that Jerusalem should be the undivided capital of Israel.

As for Northern Ireland, Obama has appointed a special envoy to continue to solidify peace efforts there, but is viewed as being likely to take more of a back seat to local politicians than his predecessor.

Obama has also indicated that he may open negotiations with leaders of countries that are through to be hostile with America, the likes of Iran and Cuba.

One thing is for sure, if he wants to win hearts and minds in Latin America, he will have to do some pretty fancy footwork, especially where Hugo Chavez is concerned.

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It’s never different this time

October 25th, 2008 by admin | 0 Comments | Filed in Daily News, Global Credit Crisis, Uncategorized

One of the defining cries of any bubble is when hair dressers and taxi drivers are able to explain why this boom is different to all other proceeding and ultimately failed booms. (I’ve nothing against hair dressers of taxi drivers by the way). Having a perception of being “different this time” is a prerequisite for any boom.

The dot come boom was “different this time” because the economy was going to change our society into an uber efficient utopia (how many time have we heard that in history?). It was also different because dotcom stocks weren’t measured on earnings, but on eyeballs.

The property boom was different this time because a confident, swaggering Gordon Brown proudly proclaimed as the Chancellor of the Exchequer that the days of boom and bust were over. He was the David who shad slain the Goliath of the business cycle. Everybody lapped it up and we all wanted to believe him. Who wanted to think of the situation critically?

We all took his word for it and financial journalists went to sleep for a while they counted their paper profits and measured each other’s property portfolios on the sly at dinner parties. The game had changed. The new era had begun…and then it suddenly fell apart with what is known as a parabolic rise…right before the crash. This parabolic rise always happens and the reasons are psychological.

The parabolic rise happens as amateurs and everyone who can raise capital race to jump onboard the departing boom train. Eventually, everyone who is able to get onboard has gotten onboard and there are no new buyers to drive prices higher. The crash inevitably follows.

As the hairdressers and taxi drivers ditch their jobs to become speculators in the latest boom that is exactly the time you should be selling and looking for the next boom.


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